Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread Julio Huato
Sam Pawlett [EMAIL PROTECTED]: How are they [poor countries as they develop] to pay for it [limiting environmental damage]? World Bank loans? I try not to assume anything, but it's safe to say that LDC countries will follow the path of least resistance (i.e. the cheapest) towards

Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread Michael Perelman
Rich countries reduce pollution, in part, by exporting it to poor countries. On Thu, Jul 12, 2001 at 10:44:00AM -0400, Julio Huato wrote: Sam Pawlett [EMAIL PROTECTED]: How are they [poor countries as they develop] to pay for it [limiting environmental damage]? World Bank loans? I try not

Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread Doug Henwood
Julio Huato wrote: IMO, the main obstacle to the development of capitalism in the Third World is not imperialism. What is? Doug

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread Julio Huato
Michael Perelman [EMAIL PROTECTED]: Rich countries reduce pollution, in part, by exporting it to poor countries. If Third World countries get to grow, they are likely to be in a position to limit or negotiate this in better terms.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread Julio Huato
Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED]: Julio Huato wrote: IMO, the main obstacle to the development of capitalism in the Third World is not imperialism. What is? Doug To state it in general may not be particularly helpful. But here it goes. In my opinion, the main obstacle to the development of

RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread michael pugliese
This sounds like the articulation of modes of production approach reviewed back in the late 70's in NLR by Aidan-Foster-Carter. Another part of what Julio says sounds like to me like the Peruvian economist touted by Mario Vargas Llosa, and the late Richard Milhous Nixon, whose name I'm

RE: RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread David Shemano
The New York Times Magazine had a lengthy article about Hernando de Soto on July 1: http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/01/magazine/01DESOTO.html?pagewanted=all What is especially interesting is that he is apparently catching on in various places: Aristide in Haiti and Mubarak in Egypt, among

Re: RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread Julio Huato
michael pugliese [EMAIL PROTECTED]: This sounds like the articulation of modes of production approach reviewed back in the late 70's in NLR by Aidan-Foster-Carter. Another part of what Julio says sounds like to me like the Peruvian economist touted by Mario Vargas Llosa, and the late Richard

Re: Re: Re: RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-12 Thread Julio Huato
Michael Pugliese [EMAIL PROTECTED]: I knew I should have phrased that differently! No. It's fair, Michael. And thank you for all the URLs. I have heard of de Soto before. Louis Proyect already honored me by associating me with him. But I haven't read him directly. Now I should.

Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-11 Thread Sam Pawlett
Why should we assume that Third World countries, as they industrialize, will not act to limit environmental damage? How are they to pay for it? World Bank loans? I try not to assume anything, but it's safe to say that LDC countries will follow the path of least resistance (i.e. the cheapest)

Deindustrialization? (was Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak)

2001-07-10 Thread Yoshie Furuhashi
Jim Devine wrote: In any event, people can and do figure out ways to use oil more efficiently each year. = In last December's Monthly Review (vol 52, no 7) John Bellamy Foster wrote a good article resurrecting the Jevons Paradox: Chapter Seven of The Coal Question was entitled 'Of the

Deindustrialization? (was Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak)

2001-07-10 Thread Keaney Michael
Yoshie writes: In contrast, Mark's framework -- the second law of thermodynamics, the law of diminishing returns, etc. -- suggests that he thinks that the problem is not so much capitalism as industrialization that the solution is deindustrialization under socialism, substituting

Deindustrialization? (was Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak)

2001-07-10 Thread Keaney Michael
Yoshie writes: You might clarify your political program, then. If not deindustrialization labor-intensive production under socialism, what do you think would allow human beings to live with the constraints that you have us posit? Do you agree with Sweezy Foster that an energy revolution

Deindustrialization? (was Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak)

2001-07-10 Thread Keaney Michael
Yoshie It's not clear to me that we disagree on anything substantive. The implication that I'm somehow having a go at Lenin is misplaced, because the point is not how mistaken Lenin was, but how constrained by his circumstances he was. Those circumstances included civil war and the unwarranted

Re: Re: Deindustrialization? (was Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak)

2001-07-10 Thread Jim Devine
Michael Keaney says: It's not clear to me that we disagree on anything substantive. The implication that I'm somehow having a go at Lenin is misplaced, because the point is not how mistaken Lenin was, but how constrained by his circumstances he was. Those circumstances included civil war and the

Re: Re: Deindustrialization? (was Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak)

2001-07-10 Thread Jim Devine
I wrote: in addition, Louis P. has argued (pretty convincingly) that the early Bolshevik regime was pretty ecologically-minded (especially by the standards of the day), until the rot set in says Yoshie: Many Greens understand the rot in question to be the ideology of productivism, but I

Re: Re: Deindustrialization? (was Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak)

2001-07-10 Thread Michael Perelman
The last sentence is unnecessary. On Tue, Jul 10, 2001 at 02:01:30PM -0700, Brad DeLong wrote: And there is much capitalist industry that can, without great disagreement among socialists, be decommissioned. That pertaining to the military sector would be a good place to start. Michael K.

Re: RE: Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Ken Hanly
I think most people agree with you to the following: 1)there is an impending global energy shortage that will cause a crisis within capitalism 2) the New Economy doesn't alter the fact that capitalism is dependent upon traditional energy sources . You seem to suggest two somewhat contradictory

Re: Re: RE: Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Doug Henwood
Ken Hanly wrote: I think most people agree with you to the following: 1)there is an impending global energy shortage that will cause a crisis within capitalism 2) the New Economy doesn't alter the fact that capitalism is dependent upon traditional energy sources I'm not sure I agree with 1);

Re: Re: Re: RE: Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Jim Devine
At 01:19 PM 7/9/01 -0400, you wrote: But I guess a glass at 50% capacity is always half empty. pessimist: the glass is half empty. optimist: the glass is half full. realist: it's half a glass of water. surrealist: it's a cow. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: Re: Re: Re: RE: Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Ian Murray
At 01:19 PM 7/9/01 -0400, you wrote: But I guess a glass at 50% capacity is always half empty. pessimist: the glass is half empty. optimist: the glass is half full. realist: it's half a glass of water. surrealist: it's a cow. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: RE: Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Ann Li
: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak At 01:19 PM 7/9/01 -0400, you wrote: But I guess a glass at 50% capacity is always half empty. pessimist: the glass is half empty. optimist: the glass is half full. realist: it's half a glass of water. surrealist: it's a cow. Jim Devine

Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Doug Henwood
Charles Brown wrote: CB: Wouldn't it be moving toward more than half empty , hasn't the half used up been in a little over 100 years, and aren't we using it up at a much faster rate today than it was being used up 75 to 100 years ago ? So, _if_ it is half empty, wouldn't the other half be

Re: RE: Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Doug Henwood
Mark Jones wrote: Doug Henwood wrote: Yeah, except that the glass keeps filling - maybe not at the rate it's being drained, but discoveries happen all the time, and old fields give up more oil than was thought possible because of technological trickery. And, there was that story in the

Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Doug Henwood
Charles Brown wrote: Then when you add in global warming, that adds another jag. Like I've said many times, that's the real worry. Mark's petro-malthusianism isn't the main worry by far. Doug

Re: Re: RE: Re: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Jim Devine
I'm no geologist (nor do I play one on TV), but it's possible (as Thomas Gold suggests) that the supply is like the supply of magma under the ground. It would go away _very_ slowly as the earth cools. In any event, people can and do figure out ways to use oil more efficiently each year. Wall

Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Ken Hanly
Have we any examples from the past of people making 100 year predictions re energy? Are any near the mark? Were they mostly too optimistic or pessimistic? Cheers, Ken Hanly - Original Message - From: Sam Pawlett [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Marxism [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: Pen [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Ken Hanly
Message - From: Mark Jones [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Sunday, July 08, 2001 3:20 AM Subject: [PEN-L:14806] RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak Ken Hanly: Of course I forgot. References you supply demolish the idea that tar sands ,or anything else I

Re: Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Sam Pawlett
Ken Hanly: Have we any examples from the past of people making 100 year predictions re energy? Are any near the mark? Were they mostly too optimistic or pessimistic? Yeah, well I think Jevons predicted the end of coal. But more to the point, it's time to move beyond 'the boy who cried wolf

Re: : Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-09 Thread Julio Huato
Sam Pawlett [EMAIL PROTECTED]: At best, costlier energy means that less developed countries will not be able to industrialize the way the North has: through cheap energy. The only way will be for the North to decrease consumption. Because of acute capital shortage, countries of the South will

Re: RE: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-07 Thread Ken Hanly
Tar sands as a source of oil will remain fantasy? Already just the mining of the Alberta sands produces over 15 percent of Canadas oil. See the chart at as well: As conventional production declines, tar sands production is rapidly expanding. In situ extraction is being used NOW as well as

Re: RE: Re: RE: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

2001-07-07 Thread Ken Hanly
. How then is it that production is increasing? Cheers, Ken Hanly - Original Message - From: Mark Jones [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Saturday, July 07, 2001 6:55 PM Subject: [PEN-L:14799] RE: Re: RE: Yet another take on Hubbert's peak Ken, only today I sent you offlist