Re: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle
I don't accept the claim that there is nothing done under conception. I agree that there are still doubt whether there is existing conception of LENR reactor, BUT there are clear evidence that there is probably such conception done by first Defkalion (who claim enough problems you can estimate with faire confidence that they have something real), by Brillouin even if early state, and also by Rossi (because of claims of people orbiting around him - Rossi being a black hole for trust, invisible itself but detectable by it's influence around). It is uncertain, but uncertainty should not be translated into nonexistence, or even in probable nonexistence. My internal consensus is that : P=0.95 that there is at least a working reactor design currently tested and requiring only industrialization work. you can disagree with my number, but P0.5 seems a clear mistake from the data we have. Even Rossi alone is above that. That none of the reactor is working would requires conspiracy style of explanations or black swan events. I cannot guarantee that black-swan p0.05, leading to my p=0.95 of a working reactor design somewhere today. beside that I estimate P0.90 that convincing mainstream will be impossible with any scientific evidence, any test, any demo. Only an industrial success can break the denial. So yes, no conception will be accepted until it is manufactured and installed. 2012/11/9 Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be ** ** ** ** For the 2 fields that are conception and manufacturing, there is currently nothing occurring for LENR (except a small start from Rossi). Without a “proof of concept”, it’s too early to invest there. Once it will be demonstrated that a LENR device can be scaled up and controlled, private investments will flow from everywhere. The LENR issue isn’t currently here.
RE: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle
Conception is the step where all the engineering skills are used to: Organise equipment, Design equipment, Make plans, Create process, Create build process, Testing In my point of view, Brillouin and Defkalion are still in the Basic research process. Their LENR devices can not be manufactured, and built for commercial purpose. Their LENR devices are only used for research. That's why I say there are not yet in Conception step in order to build, manufacture LENR reactor to sell. Rossi claims to have something to sell (cold 1MW plant), Unfortunately, this device is not mature yet. I doubt he will sell a lot of them. Conception is ongoing; While also in the same time, Rossi claims to research for its Hot Cat. So he is back to basic research. He has probably understood that its 1MW cold plant has too much weakness to be sold. A working reactor design is not enough to say to be in Conception step. It depends also on the purpose of the reactor. Reactors of Brillouin, and Defkalion are for research, not for sale. I'm sure they are working hard to go one step further! _ From: alain.coetm...@gmail.com [mailto:alain.coetm...@gmail.com] On Behalf Of Alain Sepeda Sent: lundi 12 novembre 2012 10:52 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle I don't accept the claim that there is nothing done under conception. I agree that there are still doubt whether there is existing conception of LENR reactor, BUT there are clear evidence that there is probably such conception done by first Defkalion (who claim enough problems you can estimate with faire confidence that they have something real), by Brillouin even if early state, and also by Rossi (because of claims of people orbiting around him - Rossi being a black hole for trust, invisible itself but detectable by it's influence around). It is uncertain, but uncertainty should not be translated into nonexistence, or even in probable nonexistence. My internal consensus is that : P=0.95 that there is at least a working reactor design currently tested and requiring only industrialization work. you can disagree with my number, but P0.5 seems a clear mistake from the data we have. Even Rossi alone is above that. That none of the reactor is working would requires conspiracy style of explanations or black swan events. I cannot guarantee that black-swan p0.05, leading to my p=0.95 of a working reactor design somewhere today. beside that I estimate P0.90 that convincing mainstream will be impossible with any scientific evidence, any test, any demo. Only an industrial success can break the denial. So yes, no conception will be accepted until it is manufactured and installed. 2012/11/9 Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be For the 2 fields that are conception and manufacturing, there is currently nothing occurring for LENR (except a small start from Rossi). Without a proof of concept, it's too early to invest there. Once it will be demonstrated that a LENR device can be scaled up and controlled, private investments will flow from everywhere. The LENR issue isn't currently here.
Re: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle
OK, with that description, which I call industrialization, I agree, even if Rossi is maybe at that point, but far from certain... The point for Rossi and Defkalion is they have defined the detailed process happening in their reactors, the triggering and control methods, the fuel treatments... However they need to make the final manufacturing design, to be cheap, reliable, robust, efficient... Defkalion had claims that, but it seems to have been startup promises. For Brillouin, they seems late but I won't be surprised is they are at the same point. The race is open today. 2012/11/12 Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be Conception is the step where all the engineering skills are used to: Organise equipment, Design equipment, Make plans, Create process, Create build process, Testing ** ** In my point of view, Brillouin and Defkalion are still in the Basic research process. Their LENR devices can not be manufactured, and built for commercial purpose. Their LENR devices are only used for research. That’s why I say there are not yet in “Conception” step in order to build, manufacture LENR reactor to sell. ** ** Rossi claims to have something to sell (cold 1MW plant), Unfortunately, this device is not mature yet. I doubt he will sell a lot of them. Conception is ongoing; While also in the same time, Rossi claims to research for its Hot Cat. So he is back to basic research. He has probably understood that its 1MW cold plant has too much weakness to be sold. ** ** A working reactor design is not enough to say to be in “Conception step”. It depends also on the purpose of the reactor. Reactors of Brillouin, and Defkalion are for research, not for sale. ** ** I’m sure they are working hard to go one step further! -- *From:* alain.coetm...@gmail.com [mailto:alain.coetm...@gmail.com] *On Behalf Of *Alain Sepeda *Sent:* lundi 12 novembre 2012 10:52 *To:* vortex-l@eskimo.com *Subject:* Re: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle ** ** I don't accept the claim that there is nothing done under conception. I agree that there are still doubt whether there is existing conception of LENR reactor, BUT there are clear evidence that there is probably such conception done by first Defkalion (who claim enough problems you can estimate with faire confidence that they have something real), by Brillouin even if early state, and also by Rossi (because of claims of people orbiting around him - Rossi being a black hole for trust, invisible itself but detectable by it's influence around). It is uncertain, but uncertainty should not be translated into nonexistence, or even in probable nonexistence. My internal consensus is that : P=0.95 that there is at least a working reactor design currently tested and requiring only industrialization work. you can disagree with my number, but P0.5 seems a clear mistake from the data we have. Even Rossi alone is above that. That none of the reactor is working would requires conspiracy style of explanations or black swan events. I cannot guarantee that black-swan p0.05, leading to my p=0.95 of a working reactor design somewhere today. beside that I estimate P0.90 that convincing mainstream will be impossible with any scientific evidence, any test, any demo. Only an industrial success can break the denial. So yes, no conception will be accepted until it is manufactured and installed. 2012/11/9 Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be For the 2 fields that are conception and manufacturing, there is currently nothing occurring for LENR (except a small start from Rossi). Without a “proof of concept”, it’s too early to invest there. Once it will be demonstrated that a LENR device can be scaled up and controlled, private investments will flow from everywhere. The LENR issue isn’t currently here. ** ** ** **
RE: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle
It may be to our advantage that Rossi and others are thought to be fools or frauds. Let the PTB find out otherwise amidst surprize and their own ruin. I have often wondered how a free energy technology could be introduced at large if an 'accident' or sudden 'heart attack' or murder by a lone gunman-unrelated-to-any-conspiracy awaits the inventor or his family - even if he gets past the other obstacles.
Re: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle
Jed, I agree (almost) completely with all you said here; very well put. However, while I agree the main 'CF' industry will be by mid- and large corps, I do still believe that there will be a rather large, worldwide, 'underground' micro-lenr industry. Not quite cottage, but local full service lenr dealers and installers. Some of these may carry 'off brand' or locally made small scale, lenr devices special built for local or idiiosyncratic uses. Some of these might very well be the current replicators/players who lose out in the upcoming market wars. Many opportunities here 0:) On Fri, Nov 9, 2012 at 9:19 AM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Despite my recent messages, I do not wish to give the impression I am pessimistic. I would not be working all these years promoting cold fusion if I thought there was little chance of success. However, you cannot win a political battle unless: you are prepared to win, and determined to win; you think carefully about strategy and tactics; and you move quickly to change your approach when circumstances change or a new opportunity arises. Moving quickly means -- I do not think that cold fusion cells can be manufactured by people at home. I assume they will be high-tech devices. However if it turns out I'm wrong, I would be delighted and I would hope that people take advantage of that to launch a cottage industry cold fusion revolution. It might be similar to what is happening now with cheap replicator devices. In other words my strategy would be to depend upon midsize and large corporations to manufacture the devices because I assume for technical reasons that is the only practical way to do it, but I would love to be proved wrong. I made a list of reasons why I expect a long brutal political battle. If it turns out the opposition rolls over and placed dead, no one would be more delighted than me! I'm not hoping for a battle; I am preparing for one. There is a big difference. I listed some of the advantages the opposition is likely to have. Mainly money and political power. Here are some important advantages on our side. Some have now, and some we may soon have, which will grow grow stronger, while the opposition grows weaker. We have history on our side: Greed works in our favor too. Corporations, venture capitalists and many others will be determined to make money with cold fusion. They will defy large corporations. Microsoft clobbered IBM in the 1980s, even though it started off much smaller. Institutional inertia is on our side. IBM did not begin to respond to Microsoft and the personal computer revolution until it was almost too late and the company was on the verge of bankruptcy. As I said, a low profile works to our advantage. I do get sick of the low-profile approach, though. We are terribly weak now. When I talk to Mizuno or Prelas now, I am appalled at how easily their work was suppressed by a few nitwits. Stopping cold fusion in the 1990s was like taking candy from a baby. Robert Park makes a few phone calls and boom! -- six months of planning and funding requests go into the trashcan. A publisher abruptly cancels a book; a session at ACS is cancelled. This has happened over and over again, far more often than people realize. Both sides are trying to cover up the extent of it because the opponents don't want people to know how often they have interfered in academic freedom, and cold fusion researchers hope that Lucy will not snatch away the football next time. Researchers have been like mice fleeing from a wolf. Their only hope has been to hide. That is how things have been but it does not mean we will always be so weak. The funding at U. Missouri will not be cancelled, despite frantic efforts by opponents. We will have powerful allies too, especially the Pentagon. They do not want to see the Chinese army supplied with cold fusion powered equipment while we are stuck with fossil fuel. As I pointed out in my book, this would be similar to the Opium Wars or the battle between the ironclad Merrimack and U.S. Navy wooden ships. In these cases you had a 20-year gap in technology. This is something the Pentagon understands. If the Confederacy had been able to deploy a fleet of 50 ironclad ships more maneuverable than the Merrimack, they would have broken the Union blockade and won the Civil War. The cost would have been trivial compared to fighting the battle of Gettysburg and the siege of Richmond. Fortunately, the Confederacy was not capable of making such a fleet. They were not capable of making breech loaded repeating rifles, precision long-range artillery or Gatling guns. The Union did build fleets of ironclad steamships, and these other things, and much else. It was just beginning to deploy Gatling guns when the war ended. If the war had gone on another few months, Gatling guns firing 200 rounds a minute would have massacred soldiers the way they did in 1914. We may soon have
Re: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle
ken deboer barlaz...@gmail.com wrote: Not quite cottage, but local full service lenr dealers and installers. Some of these may carry 'off brand' or locally made small scale, lenr devices special built for local or idiiosyncratic uses. That would resemble the place I bought my latest computer: http://www.ttcomputer.com/ They assemble custom-built computers with a lot more oomph than most off-the-shelf ones sold by Dell or HP. Oomph because I hate to wait, and also so that voice input goes smoothly. I got an i7 CPU when they first came out. The high tech manufacturing was done by Intel, and these people only assembled the parts. They do not do much but it is a valuable add-on service for me, and I am willing to pay a small premium for it. It could turn out that actual cells can be made by small companies. I can't rule that out. But at this point I predict they will be more like batteries, computer CPU chips, hard disks, and other devices that require precision, cleanliness and robotic assembly. I do not expect they will be as capital intense or demanding as computer CPU fabs. According to Wikipedia, Intel has 8 fabs. Intel does not have much competition. Including the competition I suppose there are ~20 general purpose CPU fabs in the whole world. I expect there will be hundreds of factories that manufacture cold fusion devices of various sizes, for various purposes. - Jed
RE: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle
Jed, I like your analogy with CPU's industry (and more generally with IC industry). In this particular industry, there are 3 main fields: Basic research Conception Manufacturing For the 2 fields that are conception and manufacturing, there is currently nothing occurring for LENR (except a small start from Rossi). Without a proof of concept, it's too early to invest there. Once it will be demonstrated that a LENR device can be scaled up and controlled, private investments will flow from everywhere. The LENR issue isn't currently here. But for the Basic Research, we can try to compare the IC industry with LENR and correlated investment needed: Nowadays the IC technology is mature but still evolves slowly in parallel with nano researches. The research in the IC technology has allowed the nano technology to become available to the laboratory and now in our daily life. The investment actually done in basic researches in IC technology compared to the business in this field is quite low. The IC technology business doesn't need to invest into basic research as it is mature. The nano technology is the daughter of the IC technology. The nano is now the place to be. That's where the money is spent for researching. IC technology has slowly started. It started with the American space program Apollo. The money came from the US government. It was war against the Russian. Without the communist threat, the IC technology might have come later. A pioneer in IC tech was Intel, and it's still the leader in conception and manufacturing of IC devices. They came with the 4004 in early 70's and so on up to i7. I would like to know what the Intel's budget for Basic researches was in 60s and early 70s. On the contrary, LENR is an unknown area, a terra incognita. LENR requires a lot of investment, a huge endorsement by the Scientifics. Nothing is especially new here, as everyone in vortex known. Anyway, this will not be carried by private money unless something reliable might be proven. So the government, (and so the public money) should take over. But it doesn't. So who will do it? To win the political battle, a workable LENR device is required. The device must be scaled up easily and controllable. The Rossi device (Hot or cold Cat) is not controllable. Otherwise Rossi will not speak about COP. Speak about COP for a LENR device means that the device is not controllable. I'm pretty sure that soon or later a reactor will burn out (or worse, explode) in the hand of an eCat customer. The Celani device is not controllable. But on the contrary of Rossi, this device is replicable and might interest others in the field as it is done currently by the MFMP team. Defkalion and Brillouin are black boxes for me. They have maybe something controllable, but is it scaled up easily? Arnaud _ From: Jed Rothwell [mailto:jedrothw...@gmail.com] Sent: vendredi 9 novembre 2012 20:11 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Reasons to be optimistic we will win the political battle ken deboer barlaz...@gmail.com wrote: Not quite cottage, but local full service lenr dealers and installers. Some of these may carry 'off brand' or locally made small scale, lenr devices special built for local or idiiosyncratic uses. That would resemble the place I bought my latest computer: http://www.ttcomputer.com/ They assemble custom-built computers with a lot more oomph than most off-the-shelf ones sold by Dell or HP. Oomph because I hate to wait, and also so that voice input goes smoothly. I got an i7 CPU when they first came out. The high tech manufacturing was done by Intel, and these people only assembled the parts. They do not do much but it is a valuable add-on service for me, and I am willing to pay a small premium for it. It could turn out that actual cells can be made by small companies. I can't rule that out. But at this point I predict they will be more like batteries, computer CPU chips, hard disks, and other devices that require precision, cleanliness and robotic assembly. I do not expect they will be as capital intense or demanding as computer CPU fabs. According to Wikipedia, Intel has 8 fabs. Intel does not have much competition. Including the competition I suppose there are ~20 general purpose CPU fabs in the whole world. I expect there will be hundreds of factories that manufacture cold fusion devices of various sizes, for various purposes. - Jed
