OrionWorks - Steven V Johnson svj.orionwo...@gmail.com wrote:
Well, Jed, you predicted final count would be 303.
U wuz right.
Plus I said 2% of the popular vote, which was right on the nose.
Obama will probably take FL so I was too conservative. But FL is amazingly
close. You might as well
Jed was reading crop circles...
On Wednesday, November 7, 2012, Jed Rothwell wrote:
OrionWorks - Steven V Johnson svj.orionwo...@gmail.comjavascript:_e({},
'cvml', 'svj.orionwo...@gmail.com');
wrote:
Well, Jed, you predicted final count would be 303.
U wuz right.
Plus I said 2% of
Here is a discussion of a poll aggregation methodology which worked
extraordinarily well:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/modelbased-poll-averaging_b_1883525.html
You can't just add up poll numbers and take the average. You have to take
into account sample sizes, the date of the
As I expect I have made clear, I am fascinated by public opinion polls.
Even though this is off-topic, here is another interesting historical note
about the subject.
My late mother was something of an expert in polls. She was director of
public opinion research at the US Census Bureau.
Everyone
Note the work of Serge Galam that recently try to explain the tied election
results
http://www.citeulike.org/user/xsongx/article/2506399
the factr seems to be contrarians, people who in discussion about politic
oppose the majority (whatever it is).
It is the opposite of the classical followers,
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