[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jack Cole]

I'm not sure what work you are referring to:

This one had an open top and claimed excess heat.
https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MizunoTproduction.pdf

Here's one where he had a top on it and showed mostly no excess heat, but
supposedly excess hydrogen.  The alleged episodes of excess heat are pretty
weak.
https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MizunoTgenerationa.pdf

 Has a top on.  Doesn't even talk about excess heat, but instead focused on
excess hydrogen.
https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MizunoThydrogenev.pdf

Looks like he had trouble replicating his own results.  Because he had a
top on the beaker?

Jack


On Sun, Jun 30, 2019 at 9:23 AM Jack Cole  wrote:

> Thank you.  If true, that refutes my point about his work being debunked.
>
> On Sun, Jun 30, 2019 at 8:33 AM Jed Rothwell 
> wrote:
>
>> Jack Cole  wrote:
>>
>> We disagree, so I'll drop it as not being productive.  I believe that the
>>> falseness of Mizuno's previous results was exposed and he/you are unwilling
>>> to spend the time to address the issues that showed how his experiments
>>> were likely compromised.
>>>
>>
>> I did, at the time. I just reiterated the main reason. The method of
>> calorimetry was different. Only part of the water boiled, and none of it
>> left the cell. It is a bomb calorimeter.
>>
>>
>>

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jack Cole]

Thank you.  If true, that refutes my point about his work being debunked.

On Sun, Jun 30, 2019 at 8:33 AM Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Jack Cole  wrote:
>
> We disagree, so I'll drop it as not being productive.  I believe that the
>> falseness of Mizuno's previous results was exposed and he/you are unwilling
>> to spend the time to address the issues that showed how his experiments
>> were likely compromised.
>>
>
> I did, at the time. I just reiterated the main reason. The method of
> calorimetry was different. Only part of the water boiled, and none of it
> left the cell. It is a bomb calorimeter.
>
>
>

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jed Rothwell]

Jack Cole  wrote:

We disagree, so I'll drop it as not being productive.  I believe that the
> falseness of Mizuno's previous results was exposed and he/you are unwilling
> to spend the time to address the issues that showed how his experiments
> were likely compromised.
>

I did, at the time. I just reiterated the main reason. The method of
calorimetry was different. Only part of the water boiled, and none of it
left the cell. It is a bomb calorimeter.

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jed Rothwell]

I wrote:


> You have to address the issues that Kowalski et. al. raised and I quoted
>> above.
>>
>
> I am not obligated. I do not agree, and I am not going to take the time to
> explain why.
>

I should at least explain the main reasons. Mizuno did not use the same
method of calorimetry Kowalski et al. used. He used a bomb calorimeter in a
closed, sealed cell. The water did not boil, and none of it escaped. So,
Kowalski's hypothesis about water leaving the cell does not apply.

Here is a photo of the cell:

https://www.lenr-canr.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Image05.jpg

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jack Cole]

We disagree, so I'll drop it as not being productive.  I believe that the
falseness of Mizuno's previous results was exposed and he/you are unwilling
to spend the time to address the issues that showed how his experiments
were likely compromised.  This reminds me of the profs who refused to
address the results of MFMP and others who demonstrated the errors in
Lugano.  Why?  We don't know for certain the reasons for all of them, but
heard from some that they were satisfied with the results because they got
some colleagues to agree with them.  Ok.

I wanted this research to be true, but there's no evidence that it was.
Ugo Abundo kind of revived it and then it suffered the same problems as BEC
(decreasing COP) to the point that we hear nothing else from him.

My main point again was just caution and humility about Mizuno's current
results.  There is precedent for large errors.

Jack


On Sat, Jun 29, 2019 at 10:32 PM Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Jack Cole  wrote:
>
>
>> Unless Mizuno can/did address the following problems addressed in the
>> paper I linked
>>  to in the
>> previous email, his work has been debunked.
>>
>
> I strongly disagree.
>
>
>
>> He [Piantelli] supposedly was going to teach MFMP how to replicate, but I
>> think they got tired of him talking about all the supposed complexities
>> without giving them any clear protocol to follow.
>>
>
> Okay, so they did not try to replicate him. As I said, only one person has
> tried as far as I know. You cannot draw any conclusion from one failed
> replication.
>
>
>
>>   Unless that can be produced, there is no reason to assume he has
>> anything (other than his word).  If I'm not mistaken, CERN tried to
>> replicate some of his work and failed.
>>
>
> Correct. That's the only attempt I know of.
>
>
>
>>   Nobody has replicated BEC's electrolysis results.

>>>
>>> What is BEC?
>>>
>>> Brillouin Energy Corp.
>>
>
> Has anyone tried to replicate their electrolysis results? If not, no one
> knows.
>
> Disproved by who? In what paper? After how many tests?
>>>
>>> At least 3.  One of the supposed replicators retracted their results
>> after learning about the problems.  They refuted their own results!
>>
>
> So what? People often retract. The only attempts I know of were not
> adequate. The one you cited above is not adequate.
>
> You cannot tell whether the original experiment is at fault, or the
> replication is. No one can tell.
>
>
>
>> You claimed that most or all of his work had been replicated.
>>
>
> I did not. Or if I did, I certainly did not mean to say that. Anyone can
> read his papers and see they have not been replicated.
>
>
>
>>  I'm not confusing terms.  I meant debunked.
>>
>
> Then I think you are wrong. Note that the term "debunk" means "expose as a
> sham" or:
>
> expose the falseness or hollowness of (a myth, idea, or belief).
> "the magazine that debunks claims of the paranormal"
> synonyms: explode, deflate, puncture, quash,
>
> I think that is too strong a term for what you cite.
>
>
>
>> You have to address the issues that Kowalski et. al. raised and I quoted
>> above.
>>
>
> I am not obligated. I do not agree, and I am not going to take the time to
> explain why.
>
>

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jed Rothwell]

Jack Cole  wrote:


> Unless Mizuno can/did address the following problems addressed in the
> paper I linked
>  to in the
> previous email, his work has been debunked.
>

I strongly disagree.



> He [Piantelli] supposedly was going to teach MFMP how to replicate, but I
> think they got tired of him talking about all the supposed complexities
> without giving them any clear protocol to follow.
>

Okay, so they did not try to replicate him. As I said, only one person has
tried as far as I know. You cannot draw any conclusion from one failed
replication.



>   Unless that can be produced, there is no reason to assume he has
> anything (other than his word).  If I'm not mistaken, CERN tried to
> replicate some of his work and failed.
>

Correct. That's the only attempt I know of.



>   Nobody has replicated BEC's electrolysis results.
>>>
>>
>> What is BEC?
>>
>> Brillouin Energy Corp.
>

Has anyone tried to replicate their electrolysis results? If not, no one
knows.

Disproved by who? In what paper? After how many tests?
>>
>> At least 3.  One of the supposed replicators retracted their results
> after learning about the problems.  They refuted their own results!
>

So what? People often retract. The only attempts I know of were not
adequate. The one you cited above is not adequate.

You cannot tell whether the original experiment is at fault, or the
replication is. No one can tell.



> You claimed that most or all of his work had been replicated.
>

I did not. Or if I did, I certainly did not mean to say that. Anyone can
read his papers and see they have not been replicated.



>  I'm not confusing terms.  I meant debunked.
>

Then I think you are wrong. Note that the term "debunk" means "expose as a
sham" or:

expose the falseness or hollowness of (a myth, idea, or belief).
"the magazine that debunks claims of the paranormal"
synonyms: explode, deflate, puncture, quash,

I think that is too strong a term for what you cite.



> You have to address the issues that Kowalski et. al. raised and I quoted
> above.
>

I am not obligated. I do not agree, and I am not going to take the time to
explain why.

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jack Cole]

On Sat, Jun 29, 2019 at 7:50 PM Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Jack Cole  wrote:
>
>
>> Parkhomov, Defkalion, me356, Rossi of course (consider the connected
>> papers conducted by academics) . . .
>>
>
> Parkhomov maybe. I don't know if he a professional, and he never
> published. I meant published results in the scientific literature.
>
> He is and he did (more than once).  You can look it up.


>
>
>> , possibly Brillouin (evident from decreasing COP) . . .
>>
>
> Maybe, maybe not. Anyway, the decreasing COP is not "evidence" in the
> scientific sense. It is a fact that gives you a bad feeling. A gut feeling
> that something is not right. That's reasonable, but it ain't evidence.
> Unless you know a lot more about the experiment than I do, you can't call
> it "evidence."
>
>
>
It is evidence.  You may disagree with the meaning of that evidence.


> , Mizuno's (and many others) old plasma electrolysis work, BLP (even
>> though they point to a different mechanism - they claim high SNR).
>>
>
> Definitely not. Very few have tried to replicate. Some who did saw
> positive results. I don't think it should be called confirmed, but it was
> no disproved by any means.
>
>
>
You have to read the paper.  It is pretty convincing.  There were several
replications before that (like 5+).


> Not true.  Mizuno has made such claims himself with plasma electrolysis,
>> which were later replicated, and even later debunked.
>>
>
> No, that did not happen. A few people replicated. No one has "debunked"
> anything. I have been following this closely, and I know a lot about the
> replication attempts. Most of them failed to achieve the necessary
> conditions. Not for lack of trying.
>
>
>
I don't know what kind of evidence you require to call something debunked,
but I think it is thoroughly debunked unless Mizuno has responded and
conducted follow-up experiments taking into account splashing out of the
electrolyte.

Here is what one attempted replicator said
:

> Mizuno claims in his report2 that “the reaction is 100% reproducible.” A
> casual observer would certainly have to agree that we have replicated the
> basic phenomenon that Mizuno, et al were investigating. However, we see no
> sign of excess heat in our experiments. Our calorimetry has an overall
> accuracy of about 1% relative and this results in an excess heat detection
> limit of about 3% relative. Therefore we have not accidentally missed “high
> heat output of the order of several hundred watts…from input power of tens
> of watts”.


Unless Mizuno can/did address the following problems addressed in the paper
I linked  to in
the previous email, his work has been debunked.

The challenge presented by ejection of liquid water is indeed very serious
> becase the latent heat of evaporation is large. Mist ejection, at the rate
> of 50 milligrams per second, results in the overestimation of Pout by
> 2260*0.05 = 113 W. This, however, is only one possible explanation of
> discrepancies. Another might be associated with microexplosions we
> occasionally observed during plasma electrolysis, expecially at higher
> voltages (see Appendix 3). Such explosions are accompanied by loud popping
> noise and very intensive arcing. We suspect that escaping hydrogen and
> oxygen occasionally combine under the influence of arcing. That could be a
> possible non-nuclear source of excess heat repored by several researchers.


   Piantelli has made high output claims -- never replicated.
>>
>
> Only one person tried to replicate as far as I know. The conditions were
> probably not met, according to Piantelli. Anyway, one test is not
> reasonable grounds to dismiss a claim.
>
>
He supposedly was going to teach MFMP how to replicate, but I think they
got tired of him talking about all the supposed complexities without giving
them any clear protocol to follow.  Unless that can be produced, there is
no reason to assume he has anything (other than his word).  If I'm not
mistaken, CERN tried to replicate some of his work and failed.



>
>
>>   Nobody has replicated BEC's electrolysis results.
>>
>
> What is BEC?
>
> Brillouin Energy Corp.


>
> Recall the previous results that were debated here about a Mizuno
>> experiment and calorimetry, which Dave Roberson was able to determine the
>> error that had been made (through very clever simulation work).
>>
>
> I myself made a mistake in it, but you said "big" errors, meaning large
> excess heat. That was what appeared to be a tiny result.
>
>

>
>>   Recall the previous claims of Mizuno and plasma electrolysis that had
>> been initially replicated, but later research convincingly disproved (at
>> least to me).
>>
>
> Disproved by who? In what paper? After how many tests?
>
> At least 3.  One of the supposed replicators retracted their results after
learning about the problems.  They refuted their own results!

Two withdrew their 

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jed Rothwell]

Jack Cole  wrote:


> Parkhomov, Defkalion, me356, Rossi of course (consider the connected
> papers conducted by academics) . . .
>

Parkhomov maybe. I don't know if he a professional, and he never published.
I meant published results in the scientific literature.



> , possibly Brillouin (evident from decreasing COP) . . .
>

Maybe, maybe not. Anyway, the decreasing COP is not "evidence" in the
scientific sense. It is a fact that gives you a bad feeling. A gut feeling
that something is not right. That's reasonable, but it ain't evidence.
Unless you know a lot more about the experiment than I do, you can't call
it "evidence."



> , Mizuno's (and many others) old plasma electrolysis work, BLP (even
> though they point to a different mechanism - they claim high SNR).
>

Definitely not. Very few have tried to replicate. Some who did saw positive
results. I don't think it should be called confirmed, but it was no
disproved by any means.



> Not true.  Mizuno has made such claims himself with plasma electrolysis,
> which were later replicated, and even later debunked.
>

No, that did not happen. A few people replicated. No one has "debunked"
anything. I have been following this closely, and I know a lot about the
replication attempts. Most of them failed to achieve the necessary
conditions. Not for lack of trying.



>Piantelli has made high output claims -- never replicated.
>

Only one person tried to replicate as far as I know. The conditions were
probably not met, according to Piantelli. Anyway, one test is not
reasonable grounds to dismiss a claim.



>   Nobody has replicated BEC's electrolysis results.
>

What is BEC?


Recall the previous results that were debated here about a Mizuno
> experiment and calorimetry, which Dave Roberson was able to determine the
> error that had been made (through very clever simulation work).
>

I myself made a mistake in it, but you said "big" errors, meaning large
excess heat. That was what appeared to be a tiny result.



>   Recall the previous claims of Mizuno and plasma electrolysis that had
> been initially replicated, but later research convincingly disproved (at
> least to me).
>

Disproved by who? In what paper? After how many tests?



>   What research of his do you feel is highly replicable?
>

I have no idea. No one can know that. People have not tried to replicate
most of them. You would have to be omniscient to judge that. The only way
to find out whether an experiment is replicable or not is to try to
replicate it. That usually takes months or years of effort. In cold fusion,
only a few claims have been sufficiently tested for anyone to judge whether
they are true or false.



> Here's a replication claiming up to 120W excess.
> https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/FauvarqueJabnormalex.pdf
>

Has anyone disproved this? Has anyone else tried it?



> Non-replication explaining previous results by splashing out of water by
> micro-explosions.
> https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/KowalskiLsearchingfa.pdf
>

Has anyone replicated this and observed micro-explosions? Has this
hypothesis been tested?

I think you are confusing "not clear yet" or "not proven" or "not tested
enough to reach a clear conclusion" with:

"debunking"

or

"failure."

There are countless open questions in science. Countless unresolved issues.
An experiment that has not been replicated is not debunked. It is in limbo,
and likely to remain there forever. Very few claims are ever conclusively
shown to be wrong. None of the ones you listed have been, as far as I know.

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jack Cole]

On Sat, Jun 29, 2019 at 6:51 AM Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Jack Cole  wrote:
>
> We've seen errors this big before.
>>
>
> I do not think so. Rossi apparently made errors this big, and much bigger:
> 1 MW. (I think this was fraud, not error.) But I do not know recall any
> professional scientist who has published a paper which was later shown to
> have errors on this scale. Not in absolute power, or in the O/I ratio.
>
> If you disagree, which paper do you have in mind? Who made errors this big
> before?
>
>
Parkhomov, Defkalion, me356, Rossi of course (consider the connected papers
conducted by academics), possibly Brillouin (evident from decreasing COP),
Mizuno's (and many others) old plasma electrolysis work, BLP (even though
they point to a different mechanism - they claim high SNR).  There were
other papers claiming replication of Rossi that could never be replicated.
It's not hard to get it wrong and in a big way.  The experimenter needs to
be his or her own biggest critic.  In particular, because he (MIzuno) has
the most intimate knowledge of his apparatus.


>
>> Best to not get too excited until there is a replication.
>>
>
> I agree.
>
>
>
>>   Based on history, every time there has been an amazing result like
>> this, it has turned out to be either a huge mistake, unreplicable, or
>> fraudulent (I don't suspect fraud at all in this case).
>>
>
> I do not think so, as I said. Give some examples. Who made a huge mistake?
> What was not replicatable? The only fraudulent results in the history of
> the field were Defkalion and Rossi, as far as I know. There may be others
> that were fraud, but I thought they were mistakes that could not be
> replicated. However, all the results I know of that could not be replicated
> were very small. They were marginal. They look like mistakes.
>
> I have never heard of anyone claiming 40 to 250 W that turned out to be a
> mistake. Very few claims in cold fusion exceeded 10 or 20 W. As far as I
> know, the only reaction of ~20 W that could not be replicated is Dardik's
> heat after death:
>
> https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/DardikIprogressin.pdf
>
> The only major large claim, of ~100 W, was Fleischmann and Pons boil-off
> experiment. As far as I know, only one group tried to replicate, Lonchampt
> and Biberian. They succeeded. Lonchampt was a nuclear engineer, so he
> followed instructions, so it worked.
>
> There was a molten salt claim of over 100 W, but no one tried to replicate.
>
>
Not true.  Mizuno has made such claims himself with plasma electrolysis,
which were later replicated, and even later debunked.   Piantelli has made
high output claims -- never replicated.  Nobody has replicated BEC's
electrolysis results.  You could argue that nobody has replicated his gas
loading experiments either (though there is some possible support through
testing).

>
> How many times have people failed to replicate Mizuno and/or shown his
>> results to be in error in the past?
>>
>
> Never, as far as I know. All of his claims were either replicated, or no
> one tried to replicate. Mostly the latter. IH tried to replicate one claim
> but they never got started, as far as I know. There were problems with the
> equipment. This resembles the situation with the Google researchers in
> *Nature* for their Pd-D claims. It was not a replication because they
> never reached high loading. It was an attempt that failed for known
> reasons. (I cannot judge their Ni claims.)
>
>
Recall the previous results that were debated here about a Mizuno
experiment and calorimetry, which Dave Roberson was able to determine the
error that had been made (through very clever simulation work).  Recall the
previous claims of Mizuno and plasma electrolysis that had been initially
replicated, but later research convincingly disproved (at least to me).
What research of his do you feel is highly replicable?

Here's a replication claiming up to 120W excess.
https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/FauvarqueJabnormalex.pdf

Non-replication explaining previous results by splashing out of water by
micro-explosions.
https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/KowalskiLsearchingfa.pdf



>

[Vo]:Re: [Vo]:Re: [Vo]:It is unlikely Mizuno’s results are a mistake

[Jed Rothwell]

Jack Cole  wrote:

We've seen errors this big before.
>

I do not think so. Rossi apparently made errors this big, and much bigger:
1 MW. (I think this was fraud, not error.) But I do not know recall any
professional scientist who has published a paper which was later shown to
have errors on this scale. Not in absolute power, or in the O/I ratio.

If you disagree, which paper do you have in mind? Who made errors this big
before?



> Best to not get too excited until there is a replication.
>

I agree.



>   Based on history, every time there has been an amazing result like this,
> it has turned out to be either a huge mistake, unreplicable, or fraudulent
> (I don't suspect fraud at all in this case).
>

I do not think so, as I said. Give some examples. Who made a huge mistake?
What was not replicatable? The only fraudulent results in the history of
the field were Defkalion and Rossi, as far as I know. There may be others
that were fraud, but I thought they were mistakes that could not be
replicated. However, all the results I know of that could not be replicated
were very small. They were marginal. They look like mistakes.

I have never heard of anyone claiming 40 to 250 W that turned out to be a
mistake. Very few claims in cold fusion exceeded 10 or 20 W. As far as I
know, the only reaction of ~20 W that could not be replicated is Dardik's
heat after death:

https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/DardikIprogressin.pdf

The only major large claim, of ~100 W, was Fleischmann and Pons boil-off
experiment. As far as I know, only one group tried to replicate, Lonchampt
and Biberian. They succeeded. Lonchampt was a nuclear engineer, so he
followed instructions, so it worked.

There was a molten salt claim of over 100 W, but no one tried to replicate.


How many times have people failed to replicate Mizuno and/or shown his
> results to be in error in the past?
>

Never, as far as I know. All of his claims were either replicated, or no
one tried to replicate. Mostly the latter. IH tried to replicate one claim
but they never got started, as far as I know. There were problems with the
equipment. This resembles the situation with the Google researchers in
*Nature* for their Pd-D claims. It was not a replication because they never
reached high loading. It was an attempt that failed for known reasons. (I
cannot judge their Ni claims.)

- Jed