balkanweb.com<https://www.balkanweb.com/en/Serbian-movements-send-serious-warnings-REL-analysis-miscalculation-that-could-destabilize-the-Balkans/#gsc.tab=0> "Serbia's moves send serious warnings"/ REL Analysis: Miscalculation that could destabilize the Balkans 9–11 minutes ________________________________
The arms race has existed for centuries, but after World War II it took on a global and systematic form, especially between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and fighter jets transformed the way power was conceived in the years that followed. Today, in the Western Balkans region, Serbia's movements send serious warnings. [https://ads.balkanweb.com/www/images/0dce1de18184411206dffd48b1905a27.gif]<https://ads.balkanweb.com/www/delivery/cl.php?bannerid=1476&zoneid=489&sig=cc608beb3a19631bb2c9f68f9747e689c5bec65d533e3e89ea2b63b81b505975&oadest=https%3A%2F%2Fbirrakorca.com.al%2F> The country – a NATO partner and candidate for European Union membership – has purchased supersonic ballistic missiles from China for its air force, becoming the first power in Europe to be equipped with the CM-400AKG air-to-surface missiles, according to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. "We have successfully integrated Chinese missiles into Russian fourth-generation MiG-29 aircraft. These are today among the best aircraft in Europe - perhaps even in the world. Air-to-surface missiles mean hitting targets on the ground and have destructive power," Vucic said on March 12. Reactions were numerous from neighbors who fought against Serbia during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. Croatia – now a member of NATO and the European Union – considered the purchase of Chinese missiles a threat to regional stability and a sign of an increasing arms race in the Balkans, while Kosovo accused Serbia of hegemonic tendencies towards its neighbors. These two countries, along with Albania, signed in March 2025 an agreement on cooperation in the field of defense and security, which Vučić sees as a direct threat to Serbia's security - "there is no other reason for their unification, only Serbia." "We are preparing for their attack. They do not intend to defend themselves, but to attack. They are forming a military alliance to attack us," Vucic said while speaking about the Chinese missiles on Radio Television of Serbia. He did not provide any evidence for these claims, which Zagreb, Pristina and Tirana have consistently denied. He only said that the Serbian armed forces have other sophisticated weapons at their disposal, which cannot be made public. For military and security experts, these messages send signals of fear and uncertainty to the region, heightening threat perceptions and pushing neighboring countries to strengthen their defense capabilities. This dynamic, they say, could easily turn into a new arms race, where every action produces a counteraction and tensions only increase. Redion Qirjazi, a security expert in Albania – a NATO member country, says that Chinese missiles give Serbia new opportunities to project power and change the balance of security in the region; they are not simply for defense – as the buyer claims – but extend military capabilities over long distances. "Chinese missiles are very precise. One worrying feature of them is their high speed – around Mach 4 to Mach 5, or up to 6 km/h – which puts them in the category of missiles that are difficult to intercept," Qirjazi tells Radio Free Europe's Expose program. In the Balkans, Serbia maintains open tensions with Kosovo, over which it has territorial claims, with Croatia and occasionally with Montenegro. Its relations with Albania and North Macedonia are calmer, while the relationship with Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains a special case, different from the rest of this country. The purchases of Chinese missiles, according to Kadri Kastrati, a military expert from Kosovo, clearly show Serbia's tendency to position itself as the most armed and dominant actor in the Balkans and to keep the region always on the edge of destabilization. "Serbia is buying all this armament to enter the competition, first of all with Croatia. After supplying Croatia with Rafale aircraft from France, Vučić made an agreement with the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, for the purchase of such aircraft. So, it is a competition between them," Kastrati tells Exposé. Despite claiming military neutrality, Serbia has the most expensive military in the Western Balkans. In 2024 alone, it spent $2.2 billion – about five times more than Albania, a NATO member and the second-largest military spender in the region, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Serbia spends significantly more than Croatia, which is also a NATO member. According to SIPRI, the difference in defense spending between the two countries amounts to hundreds of millions of euros each year. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Serbia shifted its arms sources, turning to China for combat drones and the FK-3 anti-aircraft missile system, but did not stop purchases from the West, such as the United States and France. In his statements, Vučić pays special attention to Croatia's military strength. In 2024, when Serbia bought multi-role fighter jets, the Rafale, from France, he ironically said that when Croatia does the same, it is "good news for the region", while when Serbia buys them, it becomes a "tragedy". "We do not create problems anywhere, nor do we plan them, nor do we intend them. This is a great signal of trust between France and Serbia. We just want to protect our country," Vucic said. Katarina Djokic, a researcher at the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, says that comparisons between Serbia and Croatia should be viewed with caution. Croatia, as a NATO member, plans its military capabilities within the alliance and pursues relevant tasks, while Serbia operates outside this mechanism. Djokic says there is a tendency for political elites to look beyond the border and use the arming of neighbors as an alibi to justify expanding their power. "What is worrying – when it comes to Serbia, Kosovo and Croatia – is the irresponsible vocabulary of political elites, which increases tensions, instead of using existing regional mechanisms or creating new ones for communication and problem-solving. There is simply a tendency to move towards increasing tensions – which can be dangerous, because it also creates a sense of insecurity and fear among citizens about what might happen," Djokic tells Exposé. Qirjazi warns that such a climate of tension and mistrust could lead to misinterpretations by the other side, prompting quick and uncontrolled reactions. This increases the risk of escalation even without a direct intention for conflict – a situation that Qirjazi defines as “miscalculation.” "We saw this in the recent conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States, where the argument was that we had evidence that Iran would attack first, so we struck. Or – even in the case of Iraq – they were told that Saddam Hussein would create nuclear weapons and use them against allies in the region, so we will act. This is that spiral of security and escalation," explains Qirjazi. In response to the purchase of Chinese missiles, the European Union – which Serbia aspires to join – said the country must make clear strategic choices on the path to integration. Meanwhile, NATO, Serbia's partner, did not respond to RFE/RL's inquiry about how it views Belgrade's continued cooperation with Beijing. In May, the Western alliance will hold joint military exercises with Serbia at the Borovac training range, near the border with Kosovo. In a post on social media, NATO's Joint Force Command in Naples said the exercise will take place at the invitation of Serbia. According to it, it strengthens practical cooperation and supports stability in the Western Balkans. For Qirjazi, this proves that Serbia is pursuing a strategy of “playing with multiple gates.” On the one hand, it opens the door to China to increase its influence in the region, and on the other, it cooperates with the West to create a kind of mutual dependence. "This strategy was also characteristic of the former Yugoslavia under Tito, as it maintained partnerships and alliances with many different strategic actors, in order to create a dependence of these superpowers on this country," says Qirjazi. According to him, this approach gives Serbia more room for maneuver and puts international actors in a more complicated position in the event of a potential conflict. Djokic agrees, but highlights another aspect: "One of the reasons why many countries procure weapons from China is that they are cheaper. The case of Serbia is a little more specific in terms of geography, because it is located in Europe and there are other expectations from it." "I, for example, deal with West Africa and I know that there are many countries there that have excellent relations with the EU and, at the same time, procure weapons from China because it is cheaper," says Djokic. Vucic did not disclose the price of the Chinese CM-400AKG missiles, which can carry up to 200 kg of explosive material, but described them as "very expensive." According to the latest SIPRI report, arms purchases in Europe have increased significantly, making the continent the largest importing region – with an increase of 210% between the periods 2016-2020 and 2021-2025. The United States, on the other hand, has increased its dominance in arms exports – with Kosovo one of its many clients. Kosovo Defense officials emphasize that weapons purchases are made exclusively from NATO allies. /REL © BalkansWeb To become part of the group "Balkanweb" just click: Join Group<https://www.facebook.com/groups/709747609433811/> and your request will be approved immediately. Groups Balkanweb<https://www.facebook.com/groups/709747609433811/> -- http:www.antic.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "SERBIAN NEWS NETWORK" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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