I think we are around the bushes.

        We want to know an estimate of the number of CAs in the future.

        The current number does not work because of all the reasons that we
already know.

        Then, I found #CA = #AS a good estimate (yes, there are multiple
factors like an RIR or an ISP may provide a hosted solution and reduce
this number in half, a 20% or even keep it very low if only Tier-1 and
large ISPs/enterprises decide to have CAs and the rest is happy with the
RIR hosted model).

Regards,
as

On 3/27/13 10:42 AM, Oleg Muravskiy wrote:
> 
> John Curran wrote:
>> On Mar 26, 2013, at 9:24 PM, Randy Bush <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> sorry.  it is not you, it is the arin database (personally, all the rir
>>> databases suck, they just suck differently:-).  what the arin database
>>> considers to be an organization does not correspond to what you consider
>>> one,
>> Randy is correct - while "organization ids" do map to organizations,
>> it is often a many-to-one relationship and hence not necessarily useful
>> as an indicator of number of organizations (in the typical use of the
>> term) actually involved.  It is a valid upper bound, but the true value
>> may be less due to multiple network management entities (Foo-wireline, 
>> Foo-wireless, etc.), multiple contracts with ARIN, or multiple entries 
>> for hierarchical organizations (e.g. large governments with multiple 
>> agencies/departments)
> Yes, we also have cases when multiple members belong to a single legal
> entity.
> But I think we are not interested in different organisations as such,
> but rather the number of CAs.
> So the actual question is whether the number of RPKI CAs will differ
> from the number of "organization ids" in ARIN stats file?
> 
> -- 
> Oleg Muravskiy
> RIPE NCC
> 
> 
> 
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