I do think digital media or crowdthink may be some sort of barometer - apart from the satta markets. These seem to beat the exit-poll guys consistently.
This poll <http://is.gd/Alve> Pinstorm <http://www.pinstorm.com> did two months ago: http://is.gd/Alve and the satta markets both seemed to predicted UPA wins, by about 3:2, pretty much the way it turned out. Further, have a look at these: visitor composition for the L K Advani site<http://is.gd/AlAA> http://is.gd/AlAA , and for the (much less promoted ) Congress site<http://is.gd/AlBX> http://is.gd/AlBX You'll see similar-ish levels of traffic but key contrasts: - visitors to the BJP site were overwhelmingly male, with half the typical number of female visitors as the average Indian site - visitors to the Congress site were more 'typical Indian net user'ish in demographics - visitors to the Advani site had two standout clumps: one around 60+ males (retired folks) and one among college students. Both in the not-currently-in-a-job category. Probably more "idealistic" - Congress site had a much higher than usual turnout of PhDs, and more middle-class income types. More working-class. Probably more 'pragmatists'. - I guess this might show a trend for the 18-22's and the 60+s voting BJP while the 24 - 60s voted Congress. Or as I remarked elsewhere - the past and the future of India voted for the BJP. The present voted for the Congress. - Demographically too I think the 24 - 60's outnumber the 18 - 22s + the 60+s. Maybe by more than 3:2. - Perhaps all of this could have seen to point to a lopsided victory and not a close shave. On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 10:08 PM, Thaths <[email protected]> wrote: > On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 9:12 AM, Suresh Ramasubramanian > <[email protected]> wrote: > > What do you expect, accuracy? > > Maybe not from the likes of ToI. But definitely from the established > market research places like MARG. > > > Hell, even the parties couldn’t predict it .. Prakash Carrot was > confidently prophesying a 3rd front well into today morning, for example. > > I think optimism at the 11th hour is standard politics. c.f. John > McCain statements about winning on the morning of Nov 4 2008. > > Thaths > -- > "You'll have to speak up, I'm wearing a towel." -- Homer J. Simpson > >
