yes... they may have voted BJP - but they put their money on a Congress win :-)
On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 10:57 PM, Suresh Ramasubramanian <[email protected]>wrote: > The stock market seems to have a lot of players who are bjp supporters > (Maharashtra and Gujarat in particular have lots more of those) .. which > makes for a quite artificial barometer that links the market to a rise or > fall in the BJP's fortunes, at least temporarily. > > srs > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [mailto: > silklist-bounces+suresh <silklist-bounces%2Bsuresh>=hserus.net@ > lists.hserus.net] On Behalf Of Mahesh Murthy > Sent: Saturday, 16 May 2009 10:44 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately? > > I do think digital media or crowdthink may be some sort of barometer - > apart > from the satta markets. These seem to beat the exit-poll guys consistently. > > This poll <myidea.co.in/v...<http://www.myidea.co.in/voteonidea.php?i=169>> > Pinstorm <http://www.pinstorm.com> did two > months ago: > myidea.co.in/v...<http://www.myidea.co.in/voteonidea.php?i=169>and the satta > markets both seemed to predicted > UPA wins, by about 3:2, pretty much the way it turned out. > > Further, have a look at these: visitor composition for the L K Advani > site<vizisense.com/...<http://www.vizisense.com/sites/lkadvani.in/demographic> > > > vizisense.com/... <http://www.vizisense.com/sites/lkadvani.in/demographic>, > and for the (much less promoted ) Congress > site<vizisense.com/...<http://www.vizisense.com/sites/aicc.org.in/demographic> > > > vizisense.com/... <http://www.vizisense.com/sites/aicc.org.in/demographic> > > You'll see similar-ish levels of traffic but key contrasts: > > - visitors to the BJP site were overwhelmingly male, with half the > typical number of female visitors as the average Indian site > - visitors to the Congress site were more 'typical Indian net user'ish in > demographics > - visitors to the Advani site had two standout clumps: one around 60+ > males (retired folks) and one among college students. Both in the > not-currently-in-a-job category. Probably more "idealistic" > - Congress site had a much higher than usual turnout of PhDs, and more > middle-class income types. More working-class. Probably more > 'pragmatists'. > - I guess this might show a trend for the 18-22's and the 60+s voting BJP > while the 24 - 60s voted Congress. Or as I remarked elsewhere - the past > and > the future of India voted for the BJP. The present voted for the > Congress. > - Demographically too I think the 24 - 60's outnumber the 18 - 22s + the > 60+s. Maybe by more than 3:2. > - Perhaps all of this could have seen to point to a lopsided victory and > not a close shave. > > > > > > > On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 10:08 PM, Thaths <[email protected]> wrote: > > > On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 9:12 AM, Suresh Ramasubramanian > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > What do you expect, accuracy? > > > > Maybe not from the likes of ToI. But definitely from the established > > market research places like MARG. > > > > > Hell, even the parties couldn’t predict it .. Prakash Carrot was > > confidently prophesying a 3rd front well into today morning, for example. > > > > I think optimism at the 11th hour is standard politics. c.f. John > > McCain statements about winning on the morning of Nov 4 2008. > > > > Thaths > > -- > > "You'll have to speak up, I'm wearing a towel." -- Homer J. Simpson > > > > > > >
