The stock market seems to have a lot of players who are bjp supporters
(Maharashtra and Gujarat in particular have lots more of those) .. which makes
for a quite artificial barometer that links the market to a rise or fall in the
BJP's fortunes, at least temporarily.
srs
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of
Mahesh Murthy
Sent: Saturday, 16 May 2009 10:44 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?
I do think digital media or crowdthink may be some sort of barometer - apart
from the satta markets. These seem to beat the exit-poll guys consistently.
This poll <http://is.gd/Alve> Pinstorm <http://www.pinstorm.com> did two
months ago: http://is.gd/Alve and the satta markets both seemed to predicted
UPA wins, by about 3:2, pretty much the way it turned out.
Further, have a look at these: visitor composition for the L K Advani
site<http://is.gd/AlAA>
http://is.gd/AlAA , and for the (much less promoted ) Congress
site<http://is.gd/AlBX>
http://is.gd/AlBX
You'll see similar-ish levels of traffic but key contrasts:
- visitors to the BJP site were overwhelmingly male, with half the
typical number of female visitors as the average Indian site
- visitors to the Congress site were more 'typical Indian net user'ish in
demographics
- visitors to the Advani site had two standout clumps: one around 60+
males (retired folks) and one among college students. Both in the
not-currently-in-a-job category. Probably more "idealistic"
- Congress site had a much higher than usual turnout of PhDs, and more
middle-class income types. More working-class. Probably more 'pragmatists'.
- I guess this might show a trend for the 18-22's and the 60+s voting BJP
while the 24 - 60s voted Congress. Or as I remarked elsewhere - the past and
the future of India voted for the BJP. The present voted for the Congress.
- Demographically too I think the 24 - 60's outnumber the 18 - 22s + the
60+s. Maybe by more than 3:2.
- Perhaps all of this could have seen to point to a lopsided victory and
not a close shave.
On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 10:08 PM, Thaths <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 9:12 AM, Suresh Ramasubramanian
> <[email protected]> wrote:
> > What do you expect, accuracy?
>
> Maybe not from the likes of ToI. But definitely from the established
> market research places like MARG.
>
> > Hell, even the parties couldn’t predict it .. Prakash Carrot was
> confidently prophesying a 3rd front well into today morning, for example.
>
> I think optimism at the 11th hour is standard politics. c.f. John
> McCain statements about winning on the morning of Nov 4 2008.
>
> Thaths
> --
> "You'll have to speak up, I'm wearing a towel." -- Homer J. Simpson
>
>
