On 01/01/2019 04:21 PM, Peter Griffin wrote:
What are your predictions for 2048?
A most interesting challenge, thank you. I'm afraid I'm more pessimistic for 2048 than I am for later dates. I think many issues will get worse before they get better.
1. Malthusian forces will bring famine to much of the third world, unless some new disease gets there first. Growing resistance to acceptance of vaccination will aid the latter.
2. The first world will fortify to keep others out. This will reach a peak when military force is used to kill immigrants/invaders.
3. Global temperature rise will result in significant sea level rise, which will threaten major cities and inundate low-lying countries. The first world will throw inordinate amounts of money at hardening coastal cities in what will prove a futile attempt to deny change.
4. Tribalization will continue to worsen cooperation, from the international level down to communities. Such conflicts will in some cases result in political separations, which will serve to ossify such attitudes.
5. Each generation will have less patience for bigotry and prejudice, and the conflict with their elders will continue as it has for several millenia. "Change occurs at the rate of attrition."
6. Technology will surge in governmental applications (especially oppressive ones), continue to advance slowly in consumer applications, and stagnate for science and technology. Space will either become crowded or empty.
7. All of the above is subject to change if a charismatic leader appears, promoting a more civilized approach. Of course, this would also lead to religious wars, but perhaps not immediately.
8. Email will still be here, but with any luck it will have evolved, perhaps following the EMAIL2 proposal.
I would be 94 in 2048, so perhaps I'll get to see how well I guessed. Cheers, / Bruce /
