On 01/21/2019 07:10 PM, Thaths wrote:
On Tue, Jan 22, 2019 at 3:49 AM Bruce A. Metcalf wrote:
1. Malthusian forces will bring famine to much of the third world,
unless some new disease gets there first. Growing resistance to
acceptance of vaccination will aid the latter.
I am in the middle of reading Hans Rosling's _Factfulness_. He says that
current estimates are that global population is expected to plateau at
10-11 Billion by 2100. I.e, not an exponential Malthusian growth. Are you
saying that population is going to go much higher than that, or that Earth
doesn't have the carrying capacity for 10-11 Billion?
I'm saying that given the transportation and economic systems, we can't
feed the people living today. I expect the contrast between haves and
have nots to exacerbate. I also think that this sort of mass starvation
will be (most of) what prevents exponential growth and eventually
plateau the planet's population.
4. Tribalization will continue to worsen cooperation, from the
international level down to communities. Such conflicts will in some
cases result in political separations, which will serve to ossify such
attitudes.
I agree. I think significant parts of the world are heading to a Civil War
of some sort. Perhaps a Civil World War. But I feel this is likely to
happen in the near future, and not 20+ years from now.
The longer we put it off, the worse it will be when it does come.
Perhaps central Africa and the middle east have it right, get it done
now and avoid the rush.
"Civil World War", I like that term, unfortunately.
Cheers,
/ Bruce /
