STRATFOR'S MORNING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF SITUATION REPORTS - Nov. 24, 2003
1300 GMT - BRITAIN - French President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin are in London for talks with British Prime Minister Tony Blair. During a three-hour discussion session that closely follows U.S. President George W. Bush's visit to Britain, the leaders were set to discuss the situation in Iraq, the war on terrorism, the drafting of an EU constitution and the establishment of an EU defense force that is independent of NATO. The war in Iraq and the establishment of an EU defense force have been sources of tension between the two countries. 1255 GMT - MALAYSIA - Seven Malaysian military officers are expected to travel to Mindanao in order to assess the circumstances surrounding the separatist rebellion. Malaysian leaders want to determine the outcome of peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) before deciding whether to send peacekeepers to the region. The defense officials are due to visit following the Eid al-Fitr festival - which marks the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan - which is expected to fall on Nov. 25. 1251 GMT - JAPAN - The Japanese government is considering whether to send military transport aircraft and navel vessels to Iraq to deliver humanitarian aid and supplies to U.S. forces, while still discussing a longer-term deployment of Self Defense Forces troops, Japanese dailies Yomiuri and Asahi reported. Officials reportedly are looking at deploying C-130s to Kuwait to fly in humanitarian aid and supplies to U.S. forces throughout Iraq, including Baghdad. However, according to Asahi Shimbun, a government and ruling party official says it is difficult to envision the deployment of Japanese forces to Iraq before the end of the year. 1247 GMT - AUSTRIA - The International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors is due to meet again this week to decide what actions, if any, should be taken against Iran over its nuclear program. On Nov. 20, agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei said that Iraq had broken its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but that officials in Tehran were being cooperative and allowing for tough inspections. Russia, France, Germany and Britain have stopped short of calling for international sanctions - a measure advocated by the United States. 1245 GMT - GEORGIA - Georgia's interim leader, Nino Burdzhanadze, addressed the nation on Nov. 24, promising new elections in 45 days and calling for the restoration of order in Tbilisi - though life in the capital was beginning to return to normal after weeks of protests that eventually forced President Eduard Shevardnadze's resignation. 1244 GMT - TURKEY - Despite the four suicide attacks in Istanbul over the last week, Turkey's economy will likely rebound and continue to grow at rate of 5 percent, Bloomberg reported Nov. 24, citing economists including Mehmet Simsek at Merrill Lynch International. The economists cite three years of spending cuts and a two-decade low inflation rate as the reasons why Turkey' s economy has become more resilient. However, more attacks at the peak of the tourist reason, which accounts for roughly 15 percent of Turkey's foreign currency revenues, could make the revitalization of Turkey's economy more difficult to achieve. That, in turn, could increase the nation's inflation rate and make it more difficult to repay its $191 billion national debt. Travel warnings already have been issued by Britain and the United States 1234 GMT - AFGHANISTAN - At least five U.S. soldiers were killed and seven injured Nov. 23 when a U.S. helicopter crashed near the U.S. airbase in Bagram, CENTCOM officials said Nov. 23. The soldiers were participating in "Operation Mountain Resolve," which was launched earlier this month in eastern Afghanistan. The cause of the crash is under investigation. 1230 GMT - HONG KONG - Jasper Tsang, the chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), has offered his resignation after his party lost 20 seats in District Council elections. Officials with the DAB, Hong Kong's top pro-China party, say they will decide on Nov. 25 whether to accept the resignation. 1217 GMT - MYANMAR - Four senior leaders of the National League for Democracy have been released from house arrest in Myanmar after six months in detention, party leaders say. They were arrested following clashes between NLD members and government supporters May 30. NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest. ************************************************************************ Geopolitical Diary: Monday, Nov. 24, 2003 Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze resigned Sunday after several weeks of protests over rigged elections and corruption. He was replaced by Nino Burdzhanadze, who is speaker of the Georgian parliament. According to the Georgian constitution, he will hold office until elections are called within 45 days. The primary agent of change was opposition leader Mikhail Saakashvili, who carried out what he called a "velvet revolution," modeled on Czechoslovakia's uprising. It is interesting to note that the broker of Shevardnadze's resignation was Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov. What makes this interesting is that the Russians are not particularly loved by the Georgians and vice versa: Russia has accused Georgia in the past of permitting resupply for Chechen rebels and the Georgians have accused the Russians of meddling in their internal affairs. Therefore, the presence of Ivanov rather than an American representative appears to be significant. Shevardnadze was close to Washington; some said he was a creature of the United States. Saakashvili did not reach out to Washington to try to broker the transfer of power. He reached out to Ivanov, who came and did his job. This immediately raises questions as to Saakashvili's geopolitical direction. A State Department spokesman said that the United States is following the situation closely. That is a significant shift, since the United States was helping to manage Georgia's situation in the past. Georgia is significant for reasons apart from Chechnya. An oil pipeline is being built from the Caspian to the Mediterranean, traversing Georgia. Anything that tilts the internal balance of power in Georgia affects the potential viability of the pipeline. Therefore, because Western investors have put up a lot of money for that pipeline, a geopolitical tilt in Georgia has substantial potential significance. Ivanov's presence, by itself, does not generate a geopolitical tilt, but the fall of Shevardnadze cannot be construed as benefiting European or American investors, while Shevardnadze's fall cannot help but please Russian President Vladimir Putin. There is a broad issue here. The geopolitical position of Russia at this point cannot be acceptable to Moscow. There is an assumption, which we do not share, that the decay of the Russian economy makes geopolitical moves impossible. On a global scale, this may be temporarily true, but on a regional scale -- in what the Russians call their "near abroad" -- Russia is not without resources. The interesting question, which is not yet answered, is whether Putin just used some of those resources to increase his influence in Georgia and whether this move is the harbinger of increased assertiveness in what Putin must regard as the Russian sphere of influence. The fall of Shevardnadze is interesting in another sense. Shevardnadze was much admired by Westerners for his role as Gorbachev's foreign minister, in which he helped end the Cold War and -- unintentionally perhaps -- laid the groundwork for the collapse of the Soviet Union. He was admired as an urbane and sophisticated man dedicated to peace and stability. In Russia, on the other hand, he was regarded as one of the men responsible for the Soviet capitulation to the United States and the collapse of the Soviet Union. This view was shared among those who Western businessmen have drinks with in Moscow, but outside of this circle Shevardnadze was despised along with his boss, Gorbachev. Within Georgia, his image as a liberal visionary did not dominate: He was seen as a corrupt, old-style boss, who played rough and dirty with his opponents. That is, as they say, Georgia. The point we are making here is simply this: The people that American businessmen and academics like and admire frequently are not the people who are admired in their own countries. And betting on them, in the long run, frequently backfires. The John F. Kennedy School's thoughtful visionary frequently is just another thug or sellout in his hometown. It probably doesn't matter all that much in Georgia, but it is a cautionary note elsewhere in the world. _______________________________________________ Sndbox mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://sandboxmail.net/mailman/listinfo/sndbox_sandboxmail.net
