STRATFOR'S MORNING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF SITUATION REPORTS - Dec. 5, 2003 1300 GMT - SUDAN - Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Taha reached a peace deal in the Saudi city of Jeddah on Dec. 4 with Mohammed Osman al-Mirghani of the Democratic Unionist party, a rebel group in Sudan's north. Representatives of the country's southern rebels arrive in the capital of Khartoum on Dec. 5.
1255 GMT - YEMEN - The Yemeni interrogation of Mohamed Hamdi al Ahdal, also known as Abu Issam al Maki, has revealed that al Qaeda has received financial support from a number of prominent people on the Arabian Peninsula, according to sources quoted by Middle East Online. "Ahdal provided important information to Yemeni investigators which implicates important personalities in Arab states regarding financial dealings with Ahdal, who is considered by the Yemeni authorities as the central figure in al Qaeda in Yemen," the source said, adding that the Saudi-born al Ahdal "is behind the terrorist attack on the USS Cole in October 2000 and the French oil tanker Limburg in October of last year." 1250 GMT - SYRIA - Syria is refusing to repatriate Iraqi funds deposited in the state-owned Commercial Bank of Syria -- part of the money that former President Saddam Hussein hid between the 1991 and 2003 wars. Syria wants to use the money to settle Iraqi debts before returning anything to the developing Iraqi government, while the U.S. wants it returned immediately and in full. A recent U.N. resolution explicitly holds all Iraqi government debts in abeyance until 2008. The exact amount of funds held in Syria is the topic of some dispute with estimates ranging from $250 million to $3 billion. 1243 GMT - AUSTRALIA - The Australian parliament approved a series of measures on Dec. 5 increasing the Australian Security Intelligence Organization's ability to interrogate suspected terrorists. The ASIO will be able to confiscate passports, penalize individuals for disclosing information about interrogations and question suspects who need an interpreter for at least 48 hours. The Labor Party, currently in opposition to the Liberal/National coalition government, voted for the measures. Labor Sen. John Faulkner said the changes "don't change the framework at all of the (original) legislation. They don't extend the maximum period of detention for questioning. They don't limit access to legal advice or change the very strong safeguards in this legislation that this Senate insisted on when the original ASIO bill was passed." 1237 GMT - RUSSIA - Russian inflation was 1.0 percent for November, according to a Dec. 5 report from the State Statistics Committee. Inflation for the year to date was 10.8 percent, down from 13.3 percent for the same period in 2002, putting the country on target to succeed in its 12 percent annual inflation forecast. 1230 GMT - IRAQ - An attack on a three-vehicle U.S. convoy near a mosque in east Baghdad on Dec. 5 killed four Iraqis and one U.S. soldier. The attack appears to have been a roadside bomb detonated near the al Samarrai mosque as the convoy passed. Approximately 20 bystanders were injured in the blast. 1226 GMT - The Hague - Gen. Stanislav Galic, a Bosnian Serb general convicted by the International Criminal Tribunal of war crimes, was sentenced to 20 years in prison for his role in the siege of Sarajevo. Galic also was found guilty of murder and inflicting terror on civilians. 1212 GMT - RUSSIA - An apparent suicide attack derailed a Russian train traveling between the southern cities of Mineralnye Vody and Kislovodsk -- slightly more than 100 miles from the Chechen border -- on Dec. 5 at 0440 GMT. The blast occurred in the train's second carriage and 36 people have been confirmed killed and another 150 injured, most requiring hospitalization. The attack was labeled a "terrorist act" and Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov vowed to track down the perpetrators. "The ground will burn under their feet. These animals will never be able to feel safe," Gryzlov said. An FSB security spokesman told Itar-Tass, "Next to the body of the suicide bomber a bag was found which, to all appearances, contained the explosive device which went off in the commuter train. The type of the explosive device has been identified; its main component was a plastic-based explosive. The power of the blast was equivalent to between six and 10 kilograms of TNT." Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Rostov on Don when the explosion occurred. Elections for the Russian Duma are to be held Dec. 7. 1204 GMT - NIGERIA - Queen Elizabeth II met with the leaders of 52 states in Abuja, Nigeria on Dec. 5 to begin a Commonwealth summit. Pakistan and Zimbabwe have been barred from attending. ************************************************************************ Geopolitical Diary: Friday, Dec. 5, 2003 U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell called on NATO on Thursday to take a role in Iraq. Speaking at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, Powell said, "We urge the alliance to examine how it might do more to support peace and stability in Iraq, which every leader has acknowledged is critical to all of us." Powell went on to say, "What strikes me today is that, as we discussed the possibility of NATO taking an enhanced role in Iraq, not a single member spoke against it or talked about reasons not to do it." That overstated it a bit, since German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer reiterated that Germany would not send troops to Iraq. But it is true in the sense that no one, including Germany or France, rejected out of hand a formal role for NATO -- independent of what the role of any particular nation might be. There will be 26 members of NATO next year. Eighteen of them have forces deployed in Iraq, although some of the contingents are extremely small. The issue the United States has put on the table is less about increased forces in Iraq, although Washington would welcome those. The issue is, rather, whether NATO is prepared to back the American move in Iraq, at least formally and only after the fact. The American move is more complicated and significant than it appears. On the surface, this would appear to be a chastened United States asking for help from NATO, having learned a hard lesson in Iraq. There may be some of that -- and it is certainly how the media are going to play it. But the fact is that since the United States is not likely to get strategically significant support and the appearance of being chastened is the last thing that the Bush administration wants to give -- especially when the returns are going to be as slim as these -- there is more going on. During the same meeting, another issue came up. British, French and German leaders are discussing the creation of a "planning cell," which is seen in Washington as the nucleus of a joint European command structure. There are several reasons why the United States doesn't want to see this. First, if a joint European force emerges, Europe will go from being a strange economic formation to a geopolitical reality. Europe currently can be manipulated by the United States quite effectively under current circumstances. Washington doesn't want this to change. Second, even if this doesn't evolve beyond an embryonic planning system, the United States would see its special relationship with Britain undermined if it had a set of prepackaged commitments to the continent that could pre-empt its relationship with the United States. Bush understands British Prime Minister Tony Blair's political reasons for this gesture, but he is very uneasy about what this planning cell would become in the hands of Blair's successor. Third, and most important, the creation of a European force would raise the question of how NATO is supposed to work and whether it can work at all. Each NATO member has a pre-emptive relationship with the alliance, before its obligations to any other multilateral force. If this entity were created, European countries would be faced with the question as to which entity took precedent. It is not clear how NATO as an entity would function. There could be a U.S.-European alliance, but NATO as an institution would no longer be relevant. U.S. defense planners have been asking serious questions about the value of NATO for the United States since the end of the Cold War. With the current war soaking up U.S. troops, the issue is even more intense -- not only in terms of force structure but also in terms of bandwidth. NATO takes a lot of attention, and its use is far from clear. There are serious people -- both within and outside of the administration -- who think that NATO has outlived its usefulness to the United States and, frankly, to Europeans as well. Washington has therefore put a question on the table to NATO. The United States is involved in a major war. The hard fighting is over, but there are serious problems in occupying, stabilizing and administering the country. Is NATO prepared to formally involve itself in Iraq, particularly after sovereignty has been returned to the Iraqis? If the answer is no -- and NATO runs by consensus, so all eyes will be on France and Germany -- then the second question will be this: Given that Europe is moving toward some sort of unified command on its own, and since NATO is unprepared to help the United States in Iraq, why not simply let the alliance die a natural death? Most Europeans do not want to see NATO dissolve, because they see the U.S. presence in Europe as a valuable counterweight to the Franco-German core of Europe. The French and German position on the subject has become murky. Since either country can block NATO action, they can control what NATO does or doesn't do. In effect, Powell was telling the Europeans that the future of NATO is at stake, and the United States is prepared to go in whatever directions the Europeans choose. But NATO and European leaders must very soon make some fundamental decisions on what they want to do with NATO. _______________________________________________ Sndbox mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://a8.mewebdns-a8.com/mailman/listinfo/sndbox_sandboxmail.net
