STRATFOR'S MORNING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF SITUATION REPORTS - Dec. 9, 2003
1304 GMT - IRAQ - Hours after a suicide bombing injured 41 U.S. soldiers in Tall Afar, Iraq, a second suicide bomber approached a U.S. military barracks north of Baghdad and detonated his explosives when he came under fire from military police, but there were no reported U.S. injuries. 1257 GMT - NORTH KOREA - North Korea said Dec. 9 that it would freeze its nuclear program if the United States would take simultaneous measures. The official North Korean news agency quoted an unnamed foreign ministry spokesperson as saying, "As the first step, when we freeze our nuclear activity, the United Sates on its part must take reciprocal steps," but demands also include removing Pyongyang from the list of nations sponsoring terrorism, and the lifting of political, economic, and military sanctions. 1253 GMT - PAKISTAN - Energy ministers from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkmenistan said Dec. 9 that construction on a 1,013-mile pipeline -- expected to transport gas from the Turkmen oil fields at Daulatabad to the central Pakistani city of Multan via Kandahar in Afghanistan -- will begin in the first quarter of 2004. 1249 GMT - AFGHANISTAN - Hundreds of U.S. troops supported by helicopter gunships have arrived in southeastern Afghanistan as part of Operation Avalanche with soldiers from the Alaska-trained 501st Parachute Division taking part in a raid in Khost province. 1240 GMT - LIBERIA - Hundreds of soldiers formerly loyal to ousted Liberian leader Charles Taylor staged angry protests demanding immediate compensation for putting down their weapons after only half the $300 guaranteed amount was paid up front. According to reports on Dec. 9, the soldiers fired guns in the air and assaulted people passing by the U.N. disarmament center. 1235 GMT - JAPAN - The Japanese cabinet approved a plan on Dec. 9 to send up to 600 troops to Iraq as Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi emphasized that the troops would be restricted to humanitarian and re-construction activities in what will be the country's biggest overseas military deployment since World War II. 1221 GMT - RUSSIA - At least one female suicide bomber triggered a car bomb blast outside the National Hotel in central Moscow on Dec. 9 killing five people. The bomb -- packed with nails and pieces of metal - exploded in the late morning and some witnesses claimed the bomber asked the way to the Duma shortly before the blast. Police later used a robot to detonate another suitcase lying in the street. 1215 GMT - IRAQ - A suicide bomber wounded 41 U.S. soldiers and six Iraqi civilians on Dec. 9 when an explosive-laden vehicle was detonated at the gates of a military barracks compound in Northern Iraq. The early morning attack occurred in the town of Tall Afar, 30 miles west of Mosul. 1207 GMT - UNITED STATES - The U.S. dollar weakened again against the euro on Dec. 9. The dollar, which has dropped 2.2 percent in the past five days, fell to a record $1.2276 to one euro, apparently prompted by speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate at a 45-year low in the months ahead. ************************************************************************ Geopolitical Diary: Tuesday, Dec. 9 2003 Russia held parliamentary elections Dec. 7, and President Vladimir Putin's party won. That isn't major news. It also won big: The United Russia Party, Putin's parliamentary mainstay, gained about 37 percent of the vote. Vladimir Zhironovsky's Liberal Democratic Party -- which usually votes with Putin -- came in third. The two parties together give Putin a major bloc in Parliament. That isn't major news either. The Communists came in second with only 12.7 percent of the vote, and the liberal parties did not take enough votes to be represented in Parliament. In the Russian voting system, Putin's allies will dominate Parliament. And that isn't major news. Here is the major news: the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) condemned the elections. Bruce George, an OSCE official, said the election was "one of regression in the democratization of this country." His complaint is that government-controlled television relentlessly attacked Putin's opponents and that the Russian bureaucracy used its resources to increase Putin's support. The OSCE did concede that the voting itself was conducted in an appropriate fashion. Considering where Russia was 20 years ago, the charges against Putin are fairly tame. If using bureaucratic levers to maximize votes puts a country beyond the democratic pale, few countries would be considered democratic, not to mention the city of Chicago. Putin ran a tough, nasty campaign, took every possible advantage and won big. It is interesting, though, that the OSCE deliberately raised such concerns about Russia's elections. The fact is that Putin has developed broad support, particularly for his stance on national security. The train bombing in Chechnya just before the elections drove the point home. Russia faces domestic insurrection in Chechnya, and it appears that Putin is dedicated to suppressing it and to preventing Russia's disintegration. Whatever the reality on the ground, this perception of Putin resonates with the Russian public. After more than a decade of structural disintegration, Putin has given Russians the sense that the trend is being reversed. In our opinion, if Putin had run the elections to OSCE's satisfaction, he would have fared about as well. What bothers the OSCE is less the hardball campaign tactics than the size of Putin's win. Putin has nearly a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Parliament. The liberal parties have been devastated. The Communist Party is Putin's main opposition. Putin's ally is the right-wing politician Zhirinovsky. The shape of Russian politics is shifting as anti-authoritarian parties disappear. Increasingly, the choice is between mild or hard authoritarianism. Most important, if Putin does get a two-thirds majority in Parliament, he will be in a position to pass constitutional amendments. He can pass amendments, for example, on the length of a presidential term, or whether a president can run for a third term. Indeed, with the ability to change Russia's constitution, Putin could reshape the presidential elections scheduled for March, should he choose to do so. Putin is emerging with an interesting mix of positions. Certainly, he is determined to create a strong presidency that focuses on national security issues. At the same time, he continues to endorse free market reforms. In a sense, we are reminded of the KGB's position under Yuri Andropov. The KGB -- the institution that shaped Putin -- sought economic modernization and institutional restructuring -- not to weaken the state, but to save it. Gorbachev sought economic reform, but tried to retain a strong Communist-dominated state. Putin's strategy appears to follow the same principle. He wants a strong state that guarantees Russia's integrity and national interest, and he wants economic reforms. His reforms serve three purposes: to facilitate importation of foreign capital, to cement the relationship between pro-Putin oligarchs and the state, and to legitimize the state through increased economic growth. The point is this: For Putin, economic reforms are not ends in themselves. Free markets and property rights are not moral issues to be defended, nor are they part of a matrix of political liberalization. Rather, economic reforms are the means to a stronger Russian state. In the tradition that shaped Putin, economic and political reforms are separate spheres that are not even necessarily compatible, let alone jointly required. And that is why the OSCE is getting nervous -- not so much because of Putin's election practices as the magnitude of his victory and the way he likely will put that victory to use. Putin is, first and last, a Russian nationalist, utterly pragmatic (or ruthless) in the tools he will use to strengthen the Russian state. He has greater power now than anyone in Russia since the collapse of communism. He can reshape the regime. Consequently, the OSCE and Europe are nervous about where Putin is taking Russia. They have every reason to be: Putin is slowly and systematically changing Russia's direction. When Russia changes direction, the rest of Europe should indeed be nervous. _______________________________________________ Sndbox mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://a8.mewebdns-a8.com/mailman/listinfo/sndbox_sandboxmail.net
