the risk vs. reward proposition doesn't seem to be attracting enough new
players to the market.
True for the moment, but things don't stand still. Do you think people will
still be using Maya in 20 years time? (god I hope not!) Technology, hardware,
and client's needs all change faster than we realise.
So I have a more optimistic outlook, I think it's just a matter of time before
someone somewhere comes up with something new that does it in a different way,
or maybe just in a better way.
On 01/03/2017 13:24, Brent McPherson wrote:
The 3D plugin market has never seemed that healthy and it takes a lot of effort
to turn production tools into a commercial tools.
xGen, Mash and NEX are all examples of tools that required a significant,
multi-year effort to integrate into Maya.
I agree with Matt's assessment. The 3D market today is not the same as the one
in which the major DCCs were developed and the risk vs. reward proposition
doesn't seem to be attracting enough new players to the market.
--
Brent
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Andy Nicholas
Sent: 01 March 2017 12:42
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Getting close to a 3 year old EOL annyversary
There are alternative business models though. For example, one where you
polish and release in-house tools:
https://bufsoftware.com/products/bsuite/
Anyone know what's happened to it? Is it still in active development?
On 01/03/2017 12:27, Matt Lind wrote:
I don't think we'll see new comprehensive DCC applications in the 3D space,
other than possibly Fabric Engine if they decide to go in that direction.
The 1990s taught us it's a very expensive, time consuming, high risk,
resource intensive effort that sells to a limited market. Most of these
applications took 3-4 years to engineer a new core and only Softimage did a
complete ground-up rewrite on that schedule (with Microsoft money to burn).
The others borrowed pieces of existing technology. Once these apps hit the
market, it was another few years of lean cash flow until industry trusted
them enough to adopt for general use. That's another way of saying you need
at least 5 years of funding to undertake such an effort.
The industry has evolved and expanded since the 1990s, but prices have
plummeted. Maya was originally released with MSRP of $35,000 USD.
Softimage at $13,995 USD. You have to sell a lot more licenses these days
to recoup costs.
Another issue is the market has fragmented so much each specialty is
steering towards it's own dedicated toolset. While new DCC's are desired,
they don't appear to be a practical option. Going against the established
players is taking on a field of giants - and they have a good number of
patents for really important technology too. To compete in today's market,
you need a different formula to cause enough disruption backed by someone
with great ambition and cash. Elon Musk is probably the most recent
example, but despite all the resources, you can see how long and difficult
it has been for Tesla to penetrate the market. Software isn't automobiles,
but the analogy holds.
Matt
Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2017 00:50:01 +0100
From: Sebastien Sterling <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Getting close to a 3 year old EOL annyversary
See you later Space Software... (do you even reference mate ? )
When will the next generation of digital content creation tools/Platforms
happen I wonder ? Fabric is beating the fanfare don't get me wrong, but it
feels like we are late for a new member in the full solution family,
something that makes use of the advances made in tech... since after 1998.
Also out of interest what would people like to see in It? Other then a row
of AD ceo's heads on sticks at boot up?
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