After much thinking, I finally understand, the chances are better to switch doors.
Yoi have a 2/3 chance of not picking the car as your first choice. Lets assume you don't pick the car, you pick an empty door. The host only has 1 choice of doors to open. Now since you picked an empty door, you would want to change! Now since you had a 2/3 chance of being wrong at first, 2/3 times you would want to change. Now if you did pick the car, the host would have 2 choices of doors, and you would lose if you switched. But getting the car first shot is 1/3 chance, not much compared to 2/3 of being wrong. This shows the chances are better to switch. I hope this clears up other people's confusion (it sure helped me!) Peter Greenwood --- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In [email protected], pjgat09 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: > > > > This really is not making sense. How is opening an empty door > > different than just having 2 from the start? In both cases you have > > only 2 doors to choose from, one with the prize. Am I missing > something? > > > > Peter Greenwood > > You have not done the 20 experiment games I suggested, have you? Let > me also suggest you play the host while another family member playing > the player. And make sure you do 10 times one strategy and then 10 > times the other strategy. I bet you'll notice something. > > I just saw a hilarious variant: Suppose you are playing a seven door > version of the game. You choose three doors. Monty now opens three of > the remaining doors to show you that there is no prize behind it. He > then says, "Would you like to stick with the three doors you have > chosen, or would you prefer to swap them for the one other door I have > not opened?" What do you do? > > Cheers! > Stefan > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
