I like this explanation :
"There are three possible scenarios, each with equal probability (1/3):
* The player picks goat number 1. The game host picks the other
goat. Switching will win the car.
* The player picks goat number 2. The game host picks the other
goat. Switching will win the car.
* The player picks the car. The game host picks either of the two
goats. Switching will lose.
In the first two scenarios, the player wins by switching. The third
scenario is the only one where the player wins by staying. Since two
out of three scenarios win by switching and each scenario is equally
likely, the odds of winning by switching are 2/3. In other words, a
player who has a policy of always switching will win the car on
average two times out of the three."
(wikipedia)
Gilles
2005/12/27, Anders Larsson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> In any dobuts, check <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem>.
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> /Anders
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> Yahoo! Groups Links
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