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Dr Strangelove rides again

In the early hours of this morning, the United States launched a missile 
that could smash through 30 years of global
arms control. Here our foreign affairs editor Peter Beaumont condemns the 
'Big Dog' diplomacy of George W.
Bush

Special report: George Bush's America

Sunday July 15, 2001
The Observer

In the summer of 1999, in the closing hours of the Kosovo war, an angry 
exchange took place in Macedonia's capital, Skopje, between
Nato's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General Wesley Clark and Mike 
Jackson, the British general given the job of leading
Nato's troops into Kosovo.

A planeload of Russian soldiers, earmarked for the peacekeeping force for 
Kosovo, KFor, had landed at Pristina's airport even before the
first Nato troops had crossed the border stealing an embarrassing march on 
Nato.

Clark was furious and ordered Jackson to take the airfield, by force if 
necessary, and block the runway to prevent the Russians
reinforcing with any extra troops.

Jackson, Clark recalls in his memoirs, called him aside and told him: 'I am 
not taking orders from Washington.' As Clark tried to prevail
by reminding Jackson of his senior rank, Jackson cut him short.

'Sir,' he added with cold fury: 'I am not starting World War Three for you!'

The significance of that Clark/Jackson exchange took on an urgent new 
meaning last week as the United States set itself on collision
course with international opinion by announcing further tests in Alaska for 
its proposed National Missile Defence (NMD) umbrella that
even its own officials concede would lead America into 'conflict' with the 
30-year-old Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty 'within months'.

What that exchange represented, according to analysts like Dan Plesch of 
the British-American Security Information Council, was the
most practical demonstration to date of America's emerging new military 
doctrine.

It is a doctrine that threatens to abandon the two cornerstones of western 
security policy - multilateralism and deterrence - and replace
them with a set of assumptions based on selfishness and self-belief. 
Instead, it offers Big Dog diplomacy.

This 'Big Dog' world view - held by old Reaganites and right-wingers 
flapping like moths around the overheated beacon of the Bush
administration - is arrogant, unilateralist and aggresive. Since the US is 
the pre-eminent world military and economic power, goes the
Big Dog argument, there is no need for negotiated consensus where it is not 
in America's direct interest - for example, Bush's rejection
of the Kyoto agreements to cut global warming. The US is the Big Dog, so it 
should set the rules for international engagement, from
nuclear disarmament to conventional weapons proliferation, on its own terms.

'What the incident between Clark and Jackson showed,' said Plesch last 
week, 'was just how ready people in the US were to get into a
potential shooting match with the Russians even before Bush came into 
power. They were not bothered about the risk of engaging the
Russians because as the world's only remaining superpower, it was a 
shooting match they assumed that they would inevitably win.'

This sentiment exposes the lie at the heart of Bush's National Missile 
Defence programme. For, while President Bush's envoys have
been assiduously selling the 'son of Star Wars' as a primarily defensive 
umbrella that would protect America and its allies from surprise
missile strikes by pariah states such as North Korea or Iraq, the reality 
is very different.

NMD, far from being a passive defensive system, is emblematic of America's 
shift towards being a more aggressively threatening
military power - albeit at long range.

The hard sell will have been continuing early this morning. With President 
Bush already committed to deploying his 'son of star wars'
within four years, the latest test of the troubled system - a missile 
intercept scheduled for 2.00 am British time - was as much a PR
exercise aimed at convincing the doubters among America's European allies 
that shooting down rogue missiles is all that his missile
defence programme is about.

The real issue, experts insist, is not whether an anti-missile system is 
feasible or desirable, but what kind of military and diplomatic
policies a United States, already enjoying a massive military advantage in 
terms of conventional forces, would enact under a protective
umbrella able to neutralise the threat of a nuclear strike on the US mainland.

What those policies might be is described in unequivocal terms by military 
thinkers in a series of papers that the Bush administration
has embraced wholeheartedly.

Key among them is the discussion document produced by the US National 
Institute for Public Policy in January - 'Rationale and
Requirements for US Nuclear Forces and Arms Control', whose contributors 
include figures long associated with the hierarchy of
America's nuclear weapons labs - the Strangeloves de nos jours.

The missile defence programme, as that report makes clear, is only one 
element in a transformed US military landscape that, taken to
its logical conclusion, would extend the notion of casualty-free warfare 
way beyond operations like the US bombing missions over
Kosovo. They are now beginning to believe they can have a casualty-free (on 
the US side at least) nuclear war.

The document nails the lie of missile defence as a purely defensive system 
by recommending that the US should adopt it as part of an
integrated 'counterforce' strategy against both major powers and regional 
rivals.

The National Missile Defence programme, put bluntly, is a system designed 
to enhance America's war-fighting capability, reducing the
risk of US casualties while optimising conditions for US cruise missiles 
and jets to hit their targets. But what targets. And where?

On this point at least, the same hawks who have insisted that a NMD system 
should be an act of faith for Bush's Republican
administration have been considerably less coy. The enemy-in-waiting - as 
numerous officials and fellow travellers of the Republican
right have made clear is China, a country ideologically repulsive to the 
True Believers of the Republican right and marked out as an
economic and military rival which will inevitably come into conflict with 
the US over dominance of the Pacific.

Frighteningly, these same hawks have become eager students of the military 
history of the last century, reading up on everything from
the Dreadnought race between Britain and Germany to the causes of Pearl 
Harbour.

What their reading has persuaded them is that when war is inevitable, 
timing is everything. America may have to strike first. By that
twisted logic they need their missile umbrella to do it.

So let's be clear about what Bush's big new idea adds up to. It is not 
about a safer world. It is about a creeping doctrine of pre-emption
in pursuit of remaining the Big Dog. It is the diplomacy of the Dreadnought 
made modern.

                                 Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers 
Limited 2001 


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