Crispin and list

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On May 7, 2013, at 1:35 PM, "Crispin Pemberton-Pigott" 
<[email protected]> wrote:

> Dear Ron
>  
> >I am disappointed we have no section in 4.2.2 to look at.  
>  
> Protocol analysis is slightly more complicate than that.

    RWL1:  shall we best assume that we will not hear about 4.2.2, and should 
stop asking?

> 
> >I am no expert in this topic, but it seems to me that it makes no difference 
> >whether the reporting says 4.9 or 5.0.  
>  
> That is because you view the numbers are being very similar and you go on to 
> describe the difference as 2%.
>      RWL2 :  Nope.  There are two 2%'s under discussion.  Mine was the 
> difference between. 44 and 46% below.  I am advocating that if you think the  
> 4.9 and 5.0 numbers is confusing, report both.

> > If the answer was 44%, have I a right to demand another test, since I 
> > thought it was going to be 46%?  Eventually there could be millions of 
> > dollars riding on this sort of 2% difference. (45% is the dividing line 
> > between groups 3 and 4).
>  
> When we are discussing conceptual problems, you cannot be distracted by the 
> numbers, you must stick to first principles. The numbers will come later. You 
> do not start by picking methods of convenience, you start by doing things 
> correctly whether the numbers are similar or not.
    RWL3:  I am still waiting to hear the first  "conceptual problem".

>   
> >I care only that both numbers 4.9 and 5.0 are reported and the energies 
> >involved are done correctly. I care especially that energy in char is not 
> >treated as the same sort of loss as what slipped past the pot which started 
> >with 5 liters.
>  
> The step immediately after deciding on what the mass of water boiled is the 
> calculation of the ‘specific fuel consumption’ based on that water quantity. 
> If you divide by the wrong number, you get the wrong answer every time.
     RWL4:  So divide by both and the average and report all three.  I very 
much doubt the relative rankings of stoves by a tenth of a percent.  If you 
disagree, give us a numerical example that impacts relative rankings of stove 
types.


> If the 4.9 was instead 4.5, the error is much larger, do you agree?
   RWL5
>  
> >You ask at the end:   "Is this cognitive dissonance or conceptual error?"
> >I say this is neither.  The question is, did the test you described give a 
> >reasonably close approximation of heat transfer that was useful in 
> >separating stoves into four groupings.  
> 
> It is a conceptual error to use 4.9. If water is missing, then it was either 
> boiled and evaporated, or else it leaked out. Water does not ‘boil’ by itself 
> or get boiled with energy that did not come from the fuel burned. As any 
> practical scientist will tell you, the mass of water boiled was 5 kg or 5 
> litres because it is a fact and not subject to interpretation.
>  
> >I suggest we have better things to than debate this sort of topic.  
>  
> I suggest you look a lot more closely at the concepts embedded in the WBT 
> before sweeping anything aside.
>  
> The Simmering phase of the WBT (presently called the ‘Low Power phase’ as a 
> way of evading the fact that the IWA participants called for and approved the 
> removal of all simmering in stove tests) has a metric that is ‘specific’, 
> meaning the emissions are given per unit of water simmered.
>  
> When simmering, the mass of water at the beginning and at the end is 
> substantially different – often a litre. Here is an actual example: Beginning 
> of simmering, 4.8 litres. End of simmering, 3.8 litres. Which number should 
> be divided into the mass of fuel burned? Which should be divided into the 
> mass of CO emitted? 5.0, 4.8. or 3.8? How do you get a specific emission 
> number if the mass simmered changed during the evaluation? Is it even 
> conceptually possible to get such a figure? What exactly is the aspect of 
> performance being investigated when the question is being posed?
>  
> >An ISO process is underway.  
>  
> The ISO process has not yet commenced. One structure has been created. When 
> it does, someone will form a committee and all interested countries will be 
> invited to participate. If this does not happen you can expect to see 
> resistance because the whole point of an ISO process is that the affected 
> parties are consulted. There are 4 fast tracks for creating an ISO standard. 
> If the consultation portion is omitted, you can expect there will be 
> problems. There is at least $500m available for stove projects at the moment 
> and no one wants any of it compromised by a controversial test method or 
> questionable performance targets.
>  
> >We can point out big errors, but your example of 4.9 vs 5.0 doesn't rise to 
> >that level for me.  
>  
> That is because you are not approaching the problem conceptually and that is 
> why conceptual discussion should take place before mathematical discussion 
> (of which we have had plenty). If a lot of time is invested detailing the 
> mathematics of an erroneous concept it will have been wasted.
>  
> >Put that in energy efficiency terms that matter, and we should all want to 
> >continue.  I repeat, though, that approach 4.2.2 is where the big league 
> >action (baseball jargon) now is.
>  
> Actually there is a lot more going on internationally than the discussion 
> about 4.2.x. In fact there is very little discussion going on in open court 
> about 4.2.x. There are a little groups working behind the scenes. In order to 
> create some progress on conceptual matters and to garner public input on a 
> real national standard I have been bringing questions to this forum to get 
> ideas and concepts discussed because it is the largest. I thank everyone for 
> all input on these issues. Some write privately of course.
>  
> As far as I know, only one national standard has been independently reviewed 
> by competent experts and approved for comparative (not absolute) performance 
> determination. I hope that will soon rise to two. The WBT 4.x.x is not one of 
> these though it easily could be reviewed when it is ready.
>  
> Consider this: if the WBT is pressed into service as an ISO standard without 
> being reviewed, some nation, wanting to know if it holds water enough to 
> suspend their nation’s people from its beam, will have it reviewed. Suppose 
> it contains significant conceptual, mathematical or procedural errors? What 
> then? Word will get around. Other standards will be drafted and used instead. 
> Why waste time?
>  
> What if it is culturally irrelevant? What if 90% of the cooking people do is 
> not represented by water boiling and simmering (assuming they can keep the 
> name ‘simmering’ out of the simmering portion)?
>  
> This is not a time for playing games. If you want to make comments on the 
> validity of test results you have to understand the ideas and the performance 
> metrics. Fortunately there are some very cool heads working on this right now.
>  
> Regards
> Crispin
>  
>  
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