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Out of the three scenarios you present I'd say number 1 is the most likely.  
Why call it surrender, though?  Just acknowledge that the strike tactic didn't 
work, accept the best available terms, and then continue to work for what you 
and the bus drivers think is right through proper channels.  A strike is a 
perfectly valid tactic, it just didn't work this time.   I don't think the cause 
for this strike is worth manning the barricades, as you suggest.

Bill Holland 
Mounds Park
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SPPS Budget Reduction Forum - Feb. 23-27
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