The school district has excellent resources for projecting/budgeting for
expenditures; we have been very good at projecting student enrollment
numbers, though this has has become increasingly difficult to do in the last
few years with charters and more numerous and varied immigrants from around
the country and throughout the world. 
 
What we cannot accurately account for in advance are costs outside of our
control, state and federal funding, rules, regulations, and unfunded demands
from outside entities -- as detailed in my previous email. 
 
So district staff do routinely project into the future, and most recently
were able to run more firm numbers based on current cost info (such as for
inflation, dramatic increases in health care costs, utilities, etc.) and
assuming no change in either SPPS programming/services or state funding
formulas. This is what generated the projected massive budget shortfall
anticipated for the next budget year. (With regard to our budget reserve, we
have occasionally borrowed from this, such as in anticipation of state
funding that has been delayed by the Legislature, but do so extremely
reluctantly since this is key to retaining our excellent bond rating.)
 
We still retain full responsibility for the quality of education for our
43,000 students. Yet with no control over incoming students and being
dependent upon the state for funding, SPPS -- like districts throughout the
state -- are this year finding ourselves at a near-breaking point in our
ability to deliver what these fantastic students require to be successful,
and what communities everywhere have the right to expect. 
 
-- Anne Carroll, St. Paul School Board
 
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