Looks good. James Slayden
On Mon, 30 Dec 2002, Hakan Falk wrote: > > I wrote the following for publication at "Energy Saving Now", please > look, > comment, correct and suggest a good heading, I took the heading for this > discussion as a temporary one and maybe it is the best. I would also be > happy if Keith could look at the language. > > Perspective on Oil Dependencies > ----------------------------------------------- > It does not take much knowledge in mathematics to understand that the > equations in the demand and supply situation is impossible. See attached > article from New York Times [Dec 27, 2002] WASHINGTON Dec. 25 (will be a > link on the site). We have said this many times in our discussions. > Middle > East have 70% of the oil reserves, Iraq and Saudi Arabia have more than > half of those. According to professor Hubbert's calculations for > production > from finite resources, Middle east is at the moment at the peak of > production capacity and will not have the capacity to meet the demands. > professor Hubbert's methods have proven to be quite accurate during the > last 50 years of experiences from them. > > It is no relief for the world and it is no escape from the dependence of > Middle East oil reserves. North America who is taking around a third of > the current oil production, or half of the industrialized countries use > of > oil, is already at a difficult junction. They have to chose if they are > going to secure the oil supplies by force and occupation or trust > democratic and peaceful means. The peaceful route is very insecure, > especially with the current Israel - Palestine problem, that have to be > solved very fast if it should be possible. Israel is a loose canon with > its > current policies of occupation and suppression. US and UK are in favor of > the occupation of Iraq. They would in this case secure the Iraqi oil and > with enough troops in Iraq, they would have sufficient pressure on Saudi > Arabia to make them walk the line. Iraq with Saddam Hussein nor the > Palestine resistant movements are smart enough to realize that a > confrontation policy is at this time the worst they can do, since it > gives > US and UK the alibi for occupation. All alternatives in this equation is > high risk games and can backfire, the occupation alternative has a very > short window of opportunity, if it should have any excuses based on war > against terrorism or weapons of mass destruction. Passing this window, an > occupation have to be done in the light of a brutal and illegal > occupation, > against a popular world opinion including and the popular support in UK > and > US. that maybe make it impossible to do. > > The oil industry are not helping and are basically divided in two camps. > The Dutch based Shell and some other minor oil companies, against the US, > UK and other major oil companies. It is almost pathetic to see the > resistant towards ethanol and biodiesel/SVO, with the propaganda war in > Australia as the current and most visible example. It is also pathetic to > see the slow phase of implementing energy saving measures. This in a time > when our achievements the next 10 to 20 years are going to be the most > crucial in modern times. > > For emerging industrial nations and developing countries, it is no space > in > the oil equation. It does not take much of mathematical and political > knowledge to come to this conclusion. The only road to continuing > development is aggressive energy conservation and alternative energy > sources. The successes are gong to be measured in how fast the can > develop > oil independence. > > Hakan > > > > At 12:00 AM 12/30/2002 -0800, murdoch wrote: > >Growing U.S. Need for Oil From the Mideast Is Forecast > >Despite White House statements, US growing more dependent on Saudi > >oil. > > > >Source: New York Times [Dec 27, 2002] WASHINGTON Dec. 25 — As > >President Bush seeks to reduce American reliance on oil imported from > >the Persian Gulf, new government studies predict that in two decades > >the West will be even more dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia and > >other Middle Eastern producers. > > > >Mr. Bush, asked a week ago on the ABC News program "20/20" about the > >importance of Saudi Arabian oil, said that "we must have an energy > >policy that diversifies away from dependency" on foreign sources of > >oil — including some that "don't like America." > > > >Late last month, the Department of Energy's Energy Information > >Administration forecast that in 2025 the majority — 51 percent — of > >world oil production would come from the Organization of the Petroleum > >Exporting Countries. About two-thirds of OPEC production, in turn, > >emanates from the Persian Gulf. The Energy Information Administration, > >or E.I.A., says OPEC now produces 38 percent of the world's oil. > > > >The information administration projects that Saudi Arabia will need to > >produce 22 million barrels a day by 2020 to meet increased world > >demand, far in excess of its current production of about 8 million > >barrels. > > > >"We're going to rely more and more on the Middle East markets for > >oil," said Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the Paris-based > >International Energy Agency, or I.E.A. The group's recent World Energy > >Outlook, which estimates energy markets through 2030, mirrors the > >forecast of the American energy agency. > > > >Government and industry oil experts widely agree that it makes sense > >for the United States to diversify its sources of energy. It is also > >possible that in the next decade increased oil from the Atlantic Basin > >and the Caspian Sea could make a short-term dent in American > >dependency on the Middle East. > > > >"Our dependency on the Persian Gulf could take a slight dip before it > >goes up," said John Brodman, the deputy assistant secretary of energy > >for international energy policy. "But the basic geological fact of > >life is that 70 percent of the proven oil reserves are in the Middle > >East." > > > >The importance of Saudi Arabia to long-term oil markets is different > >from its ability to produce extra oil quickly — an ability sometimes > >referred to as surge capacity. If oil markets were disrupted by a war > >in Iraq or strikes in Venezuela, only Saudi Arabia could increase its > >production within a few months to fill the gap. > > > >The new forecasts highlight a fundamental quandary facing the United > >States: American dependence on Saudi oil limits the strategic options > >of the United States even as relations between the United States and > >Saudi Arabia have been strained since the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. > > > >President Bush's national security strategy, released in September, > >aimed to "enhance energy security" by having the United States work > >with allies to "expand the sources and types of global energy > >supplied, especially in the Western Hemisphere, Africa, Central Asia > >and the Caspian region." > > > >The strategy did not mention the Persian Gulf region, which figures so > >prominently in the latest forecasts. > > > >The ability of countries like Saudi Arabia to increase their > >production significantly is by no means a certainty. The Energy > >Information Administration estimates assume that "sufficient capital > >will be available to expand production capacity." > > > >Furthermore, some oil experts question whether the region's old fields > >will be up to the task. > > > >"The giant and supergiant oil fields are getting old, and some are > >clearly dying without being replaced," said Ali Morteza Samsam > >Bakhtiari, a senior official in the National Iranian Oil Company. In > >an e-mail message sent from Iran, he questioned whether Saudi Arabia > >was capable of reaching 22 million barrels a day and said it would > >take "a miracle for OPEC to ever achieve a production of 50 million > >barrels per day (or more) as all three major institutions — I.E.A., > >E.I.A. and OPEC — are predicting for 2020." > > > > Biofuels at Journey to Forever > http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > Biofuel at WebConX > http://webconx.green-trust.org/2000/biofuel/biofuel.htm > List messages are archived at the Info-Archive at NNYTech: > http://archive.nnytech.net/ > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. > Biofuels at Journey to Forever http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Biofuel at WebConX http://webconx.green-trust.org/2000/biofuel/biofuel.htm List messages are archived at the Info-Archive at NNYTech: http://archive.nnytech.net/ To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
