Yes, he's a little over the top. regardless, we are in for some tough years ahead,
regards tallex > -------Original Message------- > From: Kirk McLoren <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Subject: Re: [Biofuel] when chaos replaces oil > Sent: 03 Aug '06 17:02 > > I am sure that at 20 dollars a gallon there would be a stampede of growers > to furnish oil let alone 700. > > I think the good doctor has been whiffing his own gas ;) > > > Kirk > > _ALTENERGYNETWORK <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>_ wrote: > When chaos replaces oil > < > > http://www.hbtoday.co.nz/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3694928&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection= > > > > KATHY WEBB > Peter Lloyd is preparing for a ghastly future. The world he > foresees is one in which it will cost $700 or $1000 to fill > the family car - if petrol is available for private use. > > It will be a world in which the scarcity and expense of oil, > widespread pollution, environmental ruin and climate change > will bring down modern civilisation in terrible anarchy as > countries go to war over oil, fresh water or arable land; > as ordinary people try to adjust to living primitive lives > without the medicines and technology that support their lives > in the 21st century. > > Dr Lloyd, an anaesthetist at the Hawke's Bay Hospital, estimates > about 80 percent of the world's six billion people will die > of hunger, disease or "slaughter on a scale never before seen > in history". > > > New Zealand will be one of the best places to be while all this > unfolds, he says, because although it will take some refugees > from Australia and the Pacific Islands, it is geographically > too isolated to be invaded and over-run by hordes from Asia, > Africa and Europe. > He insists he's an optimist, and he is - in a way. He believes > there's still a chance to prepare to survive what is going to > happen. While resources based on oil are still available, the > world must prepare to live without those same resources. > > How do you make and run wind turbines or solar panels without > machinery that uses oil? Dr Lloyd asks. How do you import and > export if fuel for ships and planes is too expensive or unavailable? > > It's no good depending on bio-fuels, he says, because the > world couldn't grow enough crops fast enough to provide > for existing, let alone future, energy demands. > > The world's population stood at one billion by the > beginning of the 20th century. Then we started burning > oil and coal to make life more comfortable and efficient; > to build global transport networks; to run machinery to > grow more food to feed more people. > > We began to chop down the rainforests that act as Planet > Earth's lungs to clear more space to graze more animals > to feed more people; to invent new materials such as > plastics; to make drugs that cure diseases that once would > have killed us. > > By the beginning of the 21st century, the global population > stood at about 6 billion, all highly dependent on the > exploitation of fossil fuels and other natural resources. > The ordinary lives of ordinary people in developed countries > have become remote from the basic sources of life, Dr Lloyd > says. In the US, every item of food is transported an average > of 1500km to its point of consumption. > > He wants to see New Zealand promoting local production for > local consumption, and every New Zealand house with at least > solar water-heating, but preferably solar electricity > generation as well. > > He's setting an example with an extensive solar-panel system > on his roof. It sends surplus electricity into the national > grid, while at other times, his household draws off the grid. > > He's installed a 25,000 litre rainwater tank in his backyard, > planted a modest kitchen garden, sold his beloved fuel-guzzling > Land Rover, and now rides a bike to work. Electric cars are > the way of the future, he says. > > In the past 100 years, vast areas of Earth have been polluted > and killed, stripped of vegetation and turned into desert or > bare land that washes away as mudslides in flash floods; the > ocean floors have been dragged, scraped and vacuumed of their > fish life, clean and adequate water supplies have become a > precious asset. The Amazon rainforest, which is being cut > down at an alarmingly rapid rate, is now into its second > year of drought. That will quite likely kill the forest > that plays a pivotal role in controlling global climate. > And if it does, trees will be replaced by grassland or > desert, causing much of the world to become hotter and > drier, and global warming to spin out of control and > eventually make Earth uninhabitable. > > Another consequence of uncontrolled exploitation is Peak > Oil, Dr Lloyd says. > > Peak Oil is a theory that mankind is using up oil supplies > faster than they can be replaced, so oil will inevitably > become increasingly scarce and expensive, even without > the aggravating effect of war in the Middle East. > > "We've been burning up four to six barrels of oil for every > one we discover. There are no sceptics left about Peak Oil. > Geologists range from it having already happened to its > happening in 2010." > > Oil shortages added to environmental ruin effectively spell > the end of modern civilisation, Dr Lloyd says. > > "In the past, it used to be nutters who talked about the > end of the world. Now a huge body of scientists are, but > unfortunately the public are ignoring them. > > "We are now a global civilisation, so there is nowhere for > us to go. So when we spoil our own nest, we are going to > suffer massive collapse. Why don't people behave more > intelligently?" > > It's time to nail down the politicians, he says. Ask them > what their plans are; demand they sit up and take notice, > look beyond the next election, make real plans. > > "Suddenly, a whole lot of us are waking up to the trouble > we're in, and it's going to happen sooner rather than later." > > The effects of a world increasingly hungry for natural > minerals and fossil fuels are clear. > > Hurricane Katrina caused a surge in oil prices last year > by disabling a lot of oil rigs near Florida. That > immediately translated into price hikes at petrol bowsers > all over the world, and chomped into household budgets. > > China's economy is undergoing explosive growth, gobbling > up all the steel the world can produce. It's importing > vast amounts of oil and coal to fuel industries and the > millions of new cars replacing millions of bicycles on > its roads each year. Factories, vehicles and coal-burning > power stations - some using coal imported from New Zealand > - have created a shroud of lung-choking smog that obscures > the sky and sun. > > There are those who firmly believe the US went into Iraq for > nothing more than its oil wells. But while terrorist insurgents > do their best to drive out the imperialist infidel and take > control of the oil wells and those practising the "wrong" > brand of Islam, while Israel rains bombs down on the citizens > of Lebanon, and Lebanon's Syria and Iran-backed Hizbollah > (Party of God) fires rockets over the heads of Israelis, while > Iran is intent on developing "peaceful" nuclear capacity, and > > Some analysts predict oil prices will double or treble in the > next few years. Dr Lloyd goes along with those expecting $US200 > a barrel for oil by the end of next year. > > "It will cost $500 - $1000 to fill your car," he says. New > Zealanders are already paying 35 percent more for petrol than > they were a year ago, with the price reaching a record > $1.77 a litre last week and suggestions it might hit $2 > before Christmas. Diesel is up 50 percent on last year. > > These fuel price rises have been the main factor in tipping > inflation over 4 percent. > > A leaked copy of a report prepared for the Ministry of Economic > Development by applied economics company Covec Ltd indicates > New Zealand's government is looking ahead to some extent. > > Entitled Oil Demand Restraint Options for New Zealand, the > report discusses car-pooling, compressed working weeks, > working from home, tyre-pressure checks, more fuel-efficient > cars, cancelling some travel, car pooling, car-less days, > and lowering the speed limit on the open road to 80km/h. > It says that if the shortage of oil were greater than 25 > percent of normal supply, and lasted for more than three > months, rationing would have to be introduced, and ways > found to prevent people hoarding petrol. > > > When chaos replaces oil > < > > http://www.hbtoday.co.nz/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3694928&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection= > > > > > Get your daily alternative energy news > > Alternate Energy Resource Network > 1000+ news sources-resources > updated daily > > http://www.alternate-energy.net > > > Next Generation Grid > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/next_generation_grid/ > > > Tomorrow-energy > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/tomorrow-energy/ > > > Alternative Energy Politics > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Alternative_Energy_Politics/ > > > Earth_Rescue_International > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Earth_Rescue_International/ > > > _______________________________________________ > Biofuel mailing list > Biofuel@sustainablelists.org > http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org > > Biofuel at Journey to Forever: > http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > > Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 > messages): > http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ > > > > -------------------- > Do you Yahoo!? > Everyone is raving about the [LINK: > > http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=42297/*http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/handraisers] > all-new Yahoo! 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