>Great Keith - that's the reply I've been waiting for - and expecting. >We've all got a lot to thank you for. >Thank you!
You're most welcome James, thanks for your kind words. >James >ps. hope you don't get 2 of these Only one. :-) > One definite plus here where I am is that local produce prices are becoming >ever more competitive - without changing Good point. I wonder if that also applies to what unsubsidized farms in 3rd World countries can still manage to produce in competition with the artificially cheap, heavily subsidized commodities dumped on their markets by the rich countries now the rich-country struff is getting pricier. If that's quite what's happening... Best Keith >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Keith Addison" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: <biofuel@sustainablelists.org> >Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2008 6:35 PM >Subject: Re: [Biofuel] Peak Food > > >> The Telegraph article is below. >> >> Goldman Sachs has been talking to Lester Brown, it's exactly his >> line, especially about China. >> >> It's about agrofuels, not biofuels. That said, it's hard to find an >> actual case of anyone actually starving because of agrofuels >> expansion. It's all just assumed, like all the projections Brown and >> others make. But it's very fashionable to blame "biofuels" >> (agrofuels) for whatever might stick, there's solid column-inches in >> media exposure to be gained, for one thing. Take a closer look and it >> vanishes. As quite a few recent posts show. >> >> "Land use for biofuels has shot up from 12m to more than 80m hectares >> worldwide over six years," says Goldman Sachs. >> >> Sounds dire eh? >> >> "Brazil has 320m hectares [3.2m sq km] of arable land, only a fifth >> of which is cultivated. Of this, less than 4% is used for ethanol >> production ... This is not a choice between food and energy." >> (Brazil's president Luiz Lula) >> >> The FAO says the total world agricultural area is 5.0 billion >> hectares. So the 80m hectares worldwide under biofuels is 1.6% of the >> total. How can that account for food price rises in the last year >> variously touted as 10%, 17%, 20%, 43%, double? >> >> Retail food prices are indeed soaring worldwide. ExxonMobil's $40.6 >> billion profits from rising oil prices point rather clearly at one >> cause - high oil costs, in a globalised food system that depends on >> fossil-fuel inputs at every stage, that plus corporate profit-taking >> by the food industry (or perhaps profiteering). >> >> The same causes are pushing all consumer prices up, not just food. >> Apparently world concrete prices are way up too, difficult to explain >> how it's caused by the evils of biofuels though. >> >> Biofuels or not, ag commodity prices probably aren't going to stop >> rising, nor will oil prices. It's already causing hardship, >> especially for poorer people, in the industrialised countries as well >> as the 3rd World. >> >> Grow your own. Go local. >> >> Best >> >> Keith >> >> >> >> >>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/02/07/cnoil107.xml >> >> Why the price of 'peak oil' is famine >> >> By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard International Business Editor >> >> Last Updated: 2:54am GMT 09/02/2008 >> >> Vulnerable regions of the world face the risk of famine over the next >> three years as rising energy costs spill over into a food crunch, >> according to US investment bank Goldman Sachs. >> >> "We've never been at a point in commodities where we are today," said >> Jeff Currie, the bank's commodity chief and closely watched oil guru. >> >> Sugar cane on a bullock cart in India - the commodity is popular as >> the basis of biofuel, as it is a cost-effective and cleaner >> alternative to oil >> >> Global oil output has been stagnant for four years, failing to keep > > up with rampant demand from Asia and the Mid-East. China's imports >> rose 14pc last year. Biofuels from grain, oil seed and sugar are >> plugging the gap, but drawing away food supplies at a time when the >> world is adding more than 70m mouths to feed a year. > > >> "Markets are as tight as a drum and now the US has hit the stimulus >> button," said Mr Currie in his 2008 outlook. "We have never seen this >> before when commodity prices were already at record highs. Over the >> next 18 to 36 months we are probably going into crisis mode across >> the commodity complex. >> >> "The key is going to be agriculture. China is terrified of the >> current situation. It has real physical shortages," he said, >> referencing China still having memories of starvation in the 1960s >> seared in its collective mind. >> >> While the US housing crash poses some threat to the price of metals >> and energy, the effect has largely occurred already. The slide in >> crude prices over the past month may have been caused by funds >> liquidating derivatives contracts to cover other demands rather than >> by recession fears. Goldman Sachs forecasts that oil will be priced >> at $105 a barrel by the end of 2008. >> >> The current "supercycle" is a break with history because energy and >> food have "converged" in price and can increasingly be switched from >> one use to another. >> >> Corn can be used for ethanol in cars and power plants, for plastics, >> as well as in baking tortillas. Natural gas can be made into >> fertiliser for food output. "Peak Oil" is morphing into "Peak Food". >> >> Land use for biofuels has shot up from 12m to more than 80m hectares >> worldwide over six years. Biofuel provides 3pc of global energy >> needs, which will rise to an estimated 10.6pc by 2030. >> >> In a pure market, sugar cane would be the only viable biofuel with a >> cost of $35 a barrel (oil equivalent). The others are sugar beet >> ($103), corn ($81), wheat ($145), rapeseed ($209), soybean ($232), >> cellulose ($305). >> >> Subsidies drive the business. The US offers tax relief of $1 a gallon >> for biodiesel. The EU has a 10pc biofuel target by 2010. >> >> The crop switch comes just as China and India make the leap to an >> animal-based diet, replicating the pattern seen in Japan and Korea, >> where people raised their protein intake nine-fold as they became >> rich. It takes 8.3 grams of soya or corn feed to produce a 1g weight >> gain in cattle - compared with 3.1g for pigs, 2g for chicken and 1.5g >> for fish. >> >> Mr Currie said investment cycles in energy typically last about 10 to >> 12 years as producers struggle to catch up with demand. However, this >> cycle has been short-circuited by politicians after barely six years. >> >> "The political environment is extremely hostile. The world is looking >> like the 17th century under mercantilism when countries saw economics >> as a zero-sum game. They exported as much as they could to get gold, >> and erected enormous barriers. China looks like that, so does Russia, >> the Mid-East and most of Africa and Latin America," he said. >> >> While the West has much of the skill for developing energy projects, >> it is blocked by nationalist petro-states from investing directly. >> >> >>>It appeared in the business section of the UK newspaper The Daily >>>Telegraph >>>on 7 Feb. You could try www.telegraph.co.uk >>> >>>J >>> >>>> Do you have a link to the report, James? I'd like to read it. >>>> >>>> Z >>>> >>>> On Feb 18, 2008 12:11 PM, James Machin <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>>>> The Goldman Sachs 'Outlook 2008' report claims that oil production has >>>>> been >>>>> flat for 4 years whilst demand has increased. They say that the gap >>>>> has >>>>> been >>>>> plugged by biofuel production - land under bioF production up to 80 >>>>> million >>>>> Ha. from 12 m Ha. 6 years ago - displacing food crops. >>>>> They say that peak oil has morphed into peak food and predict >>>>> widespread >>>>> famin in 18 to 36 months. >>>>> So, peak oil 4 years old, and we're passed peak food? >>>>> Could be. >>>>> I reckon we're also passed peak money too! >>>>> >>>>> Where will it all end???? > >>>> > >> >> James _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (70,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
