> > At 01:06 PM 11/12/2001 -0500, Oleg Shpyrko wrote.. > >I am constantly surprised how soccer "pulling away talent" theory is > >mentioned much more often than, say, soaring obesity levels among > >teenagers. > > The population of elite distance runners almost never will produce obese > kids. Tendency toward obesity is linked in large part to body type. I > don't see many 6-4/250 elite distance runners--they tend to play left tackle.
Obesity is an effect rather than a cause in my argument. Higher obesity rates among kids is caused by lack of any aerobic activity. Yes, perhaps it means that the kids genetically prone to obesity will become more obese, while some skinny kids will remain skinny while inactive - but altogether it doesn't change a fact that kids are much less active than they were 20 years ago. Kids are slower because they are less active, and they are more fat because they are less active, not that "kids are slower because they are fat". Basically, the new generation's Bill Rodgers may very well be some skinny kid who currently spends most of his time on the couch playing Ninetendo. Even if we assume that the new generation's equivalent of all 200-something sub-2:20 marathoners from 1983 are playing soccer now, perhaps my next question is how come US is still so far behind other countries, like Spain, Portugal, Italy, Mexico or Brazil, which can somehow supply the world with BOTH top marathoners AND top soccer players? Additionally, if you compare the ratio of popularities of soccer/xc+track at high school levels in US to that in the countries mentioned above, it's quite surprising they can produce any top distance runners at all. Compared to European soccer club system, US still lacks a serious post-collegiate professional circuit. One would expect a rather large fraction of these alleged distance runners who try to become good at soccer to come back to what they are naturally good at. Perhaps in the future we will see more of such a-la-Larson examples. I simply don't think blaming soccer for the lack of top marathoners US is facing is the answer - it's simply not consistent with what is happening in other countries. Oleg.
