These two factors are weak explanations at best.
(1)As others have noted, despite Kenyan distance dominance, Soccer is
THE big sport in that country, as it is, for that matter, in places like
Morocco and Spain which still far surpass the U.S. in distance running (and
from much smaller population bases).
(2)The U.S. birthrate actually bottomed out in 1937 (an effect,
apparently, of the Depression), not in the mid-'70s. Yet 1937 gave us Buddy
Edelen, George Young, Bob Schul and Ron Daws. Throw in Billy Mills, born in
June of '38 and you have two Olymppic champs (Schul and Mills), an Olympic
bronze medalist (Young) and the world recordholder (yeah, unoffically, but
still the fastest ever) in the marathon (Edelen). So much for the excuse of
low birthrate eras.
Geoff Pietsch
>From: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Reply-To: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
>"[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]"
><[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Subject: RE: Re: t-and-f: marathon qualifiers
>Date: Fri, 9 Nov 2001 23:13:21 -0500
>
>Two other contributing factors that have been mentioned before:
>
>1. Other sports (soccer, triathlon) pulling away more potential distance
>runners they did twenty years ago; and
>
>2. The USA birth rate bottomed out in the mid-1970's meaning there are
>fewer adults in their mid to late twenties these days. Fortunately, the
>birth rate has improved since then which may be a contributing factor to
>recent improvements in high school performances in our sport.
>
>Ed Koch
>
>
>Original Message:
>-----------------
>From: alan tobin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>Date: Tue, 06 Nov 2001 23:20:53 +0000
>To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>Subject: Re: t-and-f: marathon qualifiers
>
>
>The problem is really quite simple, and it is 3-fold:
>
>1. The US "elite" runners are not running nearly as hard/long as they were
>20-30 years ago. This is due in part to high school and college coaches
>adopting the high quality/low quantity approach. Three runners, three vast
>improvements in mileage, three of the best US marathoners we have had
>recently: Joe Lemay drops a 2:13 after upping to 140-150, David Morris
>drops
>a 2:09 after going to Japan and uppping to 150ish, Josh Cox qualifies for
>2000 Trials after upping to 100+ then drops to 2:13 after upping even
>further to the 130-150 range. 120 a week not working? Try 140. That not
>working? Try 160. Fact is there were more US "elite" runners 20-30 years
>ago
>running upwards of 150 or more a week.
>
>2. US "elites" wait too long to try the marathon. Todd Williams best
>marathon days were back in '95-'96. We have three runners capable of sub
>2:10-2:11, but they are busy running 10ks on the track. The best US runners
>are too busy running 5ks and 10ks to worry about the marathons. 20-30 years
>ago a lot of the best US marathoners could hold their own on the track and
>the not-so-speedy made up the 2nd tier running 2:15s. Today, for the most
>part, the not-so-speedy runners make up the 1st tier.
>
>3. Too much other stuff to worry about. Forget about the few examples of
>runners running 2:10 while working 50 hours a week. If you want to give
>yourself the best chance to excel in running then you can't be worn out
>from
>working 50 hours a week. Working 20-30 hours a week gives you a little cash
>plus more than enough time to put in the twice daily 10 mile runs that you
>need. A lot of the best college runners quit running seriously after
>college
>so they can pursue a job related to their degree.
>
>
>All of these problems can be solved. The developmental groups (Hansons,
>Brownstone, Fila, ect) have started the ball rolling. Now a young runner
>has
>somewhere to go. Some, like Brownstone, have performance levels with
>varying
>perks. It's all a matter of finding young people willing to do whatever it
>takes, run farther and faster, and do the things necessary to succeed. Once
>that happens then US distance running will be fine.
>
>Alan
>http://www.geocities.com/runningart2004
>
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