Report title: Safety Considerations for Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in the National Airspace System Weibel, Roland E; Hansman, R. John
Link is here: http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/34912 2005 so a bit behind current state of art but what municipalities are going to pony up for the latest technology... Dave > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Jim Lux > Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2012 15:59 > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Spoofing GPS > > On 6/26/12 3:38 PM, J. Forster wrote: > > Whether it's spoofing or jamming, domestic drones are > becoming ubiquitous, > > because they are just so tempting, and sooner or later one > is gonna crash > > onto a populated area, either by accident or deliberate mischief. > > > > A piloted aircraft may be able to avoid hitting a school; a > drone may not. > > > > > That *is* the significant problem with non-government UAVs. > All fine to > run them over the desert on the southern border or out over > the Mojave. > By and large, UAV failures, as you note, don't have the option of > doing a Great Santini. > > The (catastrophic) failure rate of UAVs is something like > 100 or 1000 > times higher than for military piloted craft, which in turn > is something > like 100 or 1000 times that for civilian craft. > > I did some calculations last year, and if Los Angeles decided > to put up > a UAV 24/7 to replace things like helicopters, we could > expect a crash > into the city about once a week. > > The MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-1 Predator have a reported Class A > mishap rate of > about 10 per 1000 flight hours... Class A = >$1M in damage > or death.. > bear in mind that if a $500k drone augers in out in the > desert, that's > not a Class A mishap. > > So, 1 year is about 8760 hours, so we could expect 87.6 Class A > mishaps/year if the LAPD decided to fly the current flavor of > UAV. Yes, > that would create some interesting news stories. How long > til we see a > tailfin with LAPD sticking out of an elementary school a'la Cerritos. > > For comparison, in around 2000-2005, the commercial accident rate was > about 0.01 per 100k hours. The Air Force reported about 1 per 100k > hours. General aviation is 10/100k hours. (these are non-specific > "accidents", so they aren't directly comparable to Class A mishaps) > > There's a great report from MIT on this.. google for Weibel > ICAT report > UAV safety > > > _______________________________________________ > time-nuts mailing list -- [email protected] > To unsubscribe, go to > https://www.febo.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/time-nuts > and follow the instructions there. _______________________________________________ time-nuts mailing list -- [email protected] To unsubscribe, go to https://www.febo.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/time-nuts and follow the instructions there.
