On Thu, 11 Apr 2002, Rod Hetzel went:

> Is there any research to support the idea that the behavior of
> children is influenced by what they watch on television or movies?

To avoid repeating myself, let me try expressing my answer in a
different way.

The evidence that links viewing to behavior is similar to the evidence
that links tobacco smoking to lung cancer.  First I'll explain how,
then I'll explain why I think that the viewing/behavior link requires
a higher standard of evidence.

1) In controlled, randomized experiments, there is evidence for an
   causal relationship between viewing of violent material and acute
   increases on laboratory measures of aggression.  (Similarly, there
   is evidence for a causal relationship between tobacco-smoke
   inhalation and the formation of carcinogen-DNA adducts in the lungs.)

2) In epidemiological studies, there is evidence for a correlation
   between long-term viewing of violent material and a greater
   likelihood of aggressive behavior.  (Similarly, there is
   epidemiological evidence for a correlation between long-term
   smoking and the likelihood of lung cancer.)

Here's why that isn't good enough:

1) The presence of carcinogen-DNA adducts in the lungs is (I think)
   highly predictive of the subsequent development of lung cancer.
   The same cannot be said for transient increases in laboratory
   measures of aggression and subsequent aggressive behavior
   throughout the lifespan.

2) In the absence of tobacco smoking, the base rate of lung cancer is
   negligible.  The same cannot be said for the base rate of violence
   in the absence of mass-media exposure.

3) There is no reason to suspect that people with a predisposition
   toward lung cancer are thereby predisposed toward cigarette
   smoking.  The same cannot be said for predispositions toward
   violent behavior and violent viewing.

> I was thinking about this the other day when I was talking to my
> students about spring break programming on MTV, which shows kids
> binge drinking, stripping off their clothes in public, engaging in
> sexual behavior with strangers, etc.  I can't imagine that this does
> not serve as a model for our students who are watching this kind of
> programming.

But do you think that the kids who choose to watch spring-break
programming on MTV are comparable to those who don't?

> If we argue that kids are not influenced by watching binge drinking
> and sexual promiscuity on television, wouldn't it be consistent to
> also argue that they are not influenced by programming designed to
> decrease racism or homophobia?

I hope they're influenced by the latter, but I'd want to see evidence.
Random assignment, long-term follow-up.  Why was this task abandoned
after a decent start in 1971?  It's fascinating to see how many
TIPsters seem to be saying (almost in so many words), "There's just
got to be a causal association.  I can't imagine that there isn't.
There's just got to be."

By the way, Rip mentioned that advertisers spend a lot of money to
influence behavior through viewing.  But advertisers know that Watson
was mistaken--that you can't elicit every behavior from everyone.  So
they target their ads.  Toy manufacturers advertise during Saturday-
morning cartoons rather than during _Friends_, even though the
audience for _Friends_ is far larger.  Doubleclick tries to put
cookies on your hard disk as you navigate the Web--so they can show
you ads that were specially selected on the basis of your browsing
history.  If advertisers reach an audience that isn't predisposed
toward the product, they're wasting money.  On the rare occasions when
they really get it wrong, we get an Edsel or a "New Coke."

--David Epstein
  [EMAIL PROTECTED]




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