Hi
I think what is not being emphasized enough in this discussion is
that probabilities are expected values for an infinite
population; they do not apply to the outcome on any one occasion
or even on some finite set of occasions. If someone guesses (in
the pure sense), then they will either be lucky, unlucky, or
neither on each occasion, depending on the fates (i.e., chance).
That is, they might get a higher score, a lower score, or the
same score as if they had not guessed. But the overall
expectation is of a result producing the same score by either
guessing or not guessing (depending on the penalty exacted for
guessing). Perhaps whether or not one guesses should be
determined by how much of a risk-taker one is? Do you want to
chance a lower score in order to have a chance at a higher score?
Best wishes
Jim
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James M. Clark (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology (204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg 4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark
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