Those of you who try to "balance" the number of times 'a' 'b' 'c' and 'd'
are the correct answer options are just giving students another way to
"guess" the correct answer without knowing the material. You should use a
random process to determine in which position the correct answer will
appear. Do that and you might be surprised how often you get "runs" of
three or four correct answers in the same position -- we greatly
underestimate the probability of such runs in a truly random process.
Marc has been telling us that with truly random guessing it may be true that
on average the score will not be affected, but some will be lower (and some
higher). But that is also true when the "guessing" is not random, even when
it follows having with certainty eliminated one of the alternatives. If
nothing else, this current discussion has illustrated well that humans,
including Ph.D. holding psychologists, do not understand probability very
well.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++ Karl L. Wuensch, Department of Psychology, East Carolina University,
Greenville NC 27858-4353 Voice: 252-328-4102 Fax: 252-328-6283
[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://core.ecu.edu/psyc/wuenschk/klw.htm
