I actually published a paper on this topic: Prohaska, V. (1994). "I know
I'll get an A": Confident overestimation of final course grades.
Teaching of Psychology, 21(3), 141-143. On the first day of classes,
before even seeing a syllabus, students were asked to estimate the grade
they thought they would recieve at the end. I also looked at the final
grades they actually earned and their overall GPA's. Most students
confidently overestimated their grades, with the greatest overestimate
done by those with the lower GPA's. There was also a tendency among very
high GPA students to slightly underestimate their grades.
One concern I have about your data is that students are very aware that
you, the instructor, is looking at their answers. You are, after all the
god who gives grades. Some may be afraid of jeopardizing their grades by
appearing too confident (if lots of students think they are going to get
A's, you might make the course harder, or you just may make life difficult
for those who make a specific prediction).
Vinny
Vincent Prohaska, Ph.D.
Associate Professor and Chair
Department of Psychology
Lehman College, City University of New York
Bronx, NY 10468-1589
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
718-960-8204
718-960-8092 fax
