I was always skeptical about the initial findings from basketball. Or to clarify, I am not surprised a hot-hand COULD be established statistically. Successive shots from people are not purely independent events the way a coin toss is - the coin has no memory for prior outcomes, nor would the psychological state of the tosser be able to bias the coin one way or another, we assume. But after making a point in a sport, there can be changes in physiology, mood, feeling of euphoria, possibly hormones, etc (MY vibes change after making a shot in basketball, though in my case they are rare events). But the fact that athletes talk about the grooves and zones they experience when they are having a good game reinforce the idea that physiological states of dependency are possible.
========================== John W. Kulig, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Coordinator, University Honors Plymouth State University Plymouth NH 03264 ========================== ----- Original Message ----- From: "Paul K Brandon" <[email protected]> To: "Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)" <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 1:13:47 PM Subject: Re: [tips] JEP: The hot hand exists in volleyball But can they predict _before hand_ which half of the players will in fact have hot streaks? On Oct 24, 2011, at 11:42 AM, Jeffry Ricker wrote: > The hot hand exists in volleyball and is used for allocation decisions. > Raab, Markus; Gula, Bartosz; Gigerenzer, Gerd > Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, Oct 17, 2011 > > The “hot hand” belief in sports refers to the conviction that a player has a > higher chance of making a shot after two or three successful shots than after > two or three misses (resulting in “streaks”). This belief is usually > considered a cognitive fallacy, although it has been conjectured that in > basketball the defense will attack a “hot” player and prevent streaks from > occurring. To address this argument, we provide the first study on the hot > hand in volleyball, where the net limits direct defensive counterstrategies, > meaning that streaks can more likely emerge if a player is hot. We first > establish that athletes believe in the hot hand in volleyball (Study 1A). > Analyzing the top 26 first-division players, we then show that streaks do > exist for half of the players (Study 1B). Coaches can detect players' > performance variability and use it to make strategic decisions (Study 2A). > Playmakers are also sensitive to streaks and rely on them when deciding to > whom to allocate the ball (Study 2B). We conclude that for volleyball the hot > hand exists, coaches and playmakers are able to detect it, and playmakers > tend to use it “adaptively,” which results in more hits for a team. (PsycINFO > Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved) > -- > --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Jeffry Ricker, Ph.D. > SCC: Professor of Psychology > MCCCD: General Studies Faculty Representative > PSY 101 Website: http://sccpsy101.wordpress.com/ > --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Scottsdale Community College > 9000 E. Chaparral Road > Scottsdale, AZ 85256-2626 > Office: SB-123 > Phone: (480) 423-6213 > Fax: (480) 423-6298 > > > --- > You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. > To unsubscribe click here: > http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13438.3b5166ef147b143fedd04b1c4a64900b&n=T&l=tips&o=13639 > > or send a blank email to > leave-13639-13438.3b5166ef147b143fedd04b1c4a649...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66454&n=T&l=tips&o=13641 or send a blank email to leave-13641-13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=13652 or send a blank email to leave-13652-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
