I think Ubuntu's drop in popularity has something to do with the fact that a hundred other distributions are now pretty good for novice-level daily desktop use ... Ubuntu no longer particularly stands out in that department, even if it was a global leader a few years ago ("try Ubuntu first" was very sound advice). In a few years, Debian's userfriendliness might be where Ubuntu's is now. The days of GNU/Linux being a luxury of the super computer-literate are long past.

Most people who use Ubuntu are probably not aware that there is any skirmish around something called Mir vs something called Wayland. That's an opinionated fringe.

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