The stake mission leader gave a lesson on missionary work that was somewhat frantic.
Apparently, the conversion numbers are slipping drastically. The church is getting the same number of new converts as in 1989, but they are using twice as many missionaries to do it. He actually stated that these numbers indicate that the church is in a state of apostasy. What makes this even more interesting is that he was clearly getting the bulk of his lesson from what he had heard from Area leaders.
He also said that churchwide, temples are operating at 11% of capacity! I was staggered. I would have guessed maybe 30% at the least.
Kevin Deegan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
http://www.sltrib.com/ci_2890645
Graphing activity: When the Graduate Center of the City University of New York conducted an American Religious Identification Survey in 2001, it discovered that about the same number of people said they had joined the LDS Church as said they had left it. The CUNY survey reported the church's net growth was zero percent. By contrast, the study showed both Jehovah's Witnesses and Seventh-Day Adventists with an increase of 11 percent.
"Because membership statistics are prepared and reported differently by various religious groups, the LDS Church does not publish comparisons of total membership to other faiths," said LDS spokesman Dale Bills on Friday.
On the question of how many Mormons are actively participating, Brigham Young University demographer Tim Heaton noted in the Encyclopedia of Mormonism that attendance at weekly sacrament meetings in the early 1990s was between 40 percent and 50 percent in Canada, the South Pacific, and the United States. In Europe and Africa, the average was 35 percent. Attendance in Asia and Latin America hovered around 25 percent.
By multiplying the number of members in each area by these fractions, David G. Stewart Jr. estimates worldwide activity at about 35 percent - which would give the church about 4 million active members.
Stewart, an active Mormon who served a mission to Russia in the early 1990s, has been conducting research on LDS missionary work in 20 countries for 13 years, examining census figures, and analyzing published data.
Take Brazil. In its 2000 Census, 199,645 residents identified themselves as LDS, while the church listed 743,182 on its rolls.
"There may be any number of reasons for the discrepancy," Bills said, "including personal preferences of some citizens regarding disclosure of their religious affiliation."
Retaining members: Stewart says Mormons need to be aware of such statistics to be more effective missionaries. To that end, he is publishing his research, along with a description of what he calls "tested principles to improve growth and retention," in a forthcoming book, The Law of the Harvest: Practical Principles of Effective Missionary Work.
"It is a matter of grave concern that the areas with the most rapid numerical membership increase, Latin America and the Philippines, are also the areas with extremely low convert retention," says Stewart, a California physician. "Many other groups, including the Adventists and Jehovah's Witnesses, have consistently achieved excellent convert retention rates in those cultures and societies. Latter-day Saints lose 70 to 80 percent of their converts, while Adventists retain 70 to 80 percent of theirs."
Perhaps the best measure of LDS Church growth is the rate of new church units, such as wards (congregations) and stakes (like a diocese). Because they are staffed by volunteers, such units cannot function without enough active members.
In 1980, The Ensign, the LDS Church's official magazine, predicted that membership would grow from 4.6 million members at that time to 11.1 million members in 2000, and from 1,190 stakes to 3,600 in 2000. While the number of members came very close to the projected value, there were 2,602 stakes worldwide at the end of 2002.
"You can use these trends to say that the percentage is slowing, the numbers have leveled off or they are dropping. They tell us what is happening right now," Heaton says. "But to try and tell us about the future is risky business. What if all of a sudden China or India lets us in and the [missionary] work takes off?"
Predicting the future: In 1984, University of Washington sociologist Rodney Stark was astonished to discover that the LDS Church's growth rate from 1940 through 1980 was 53 percent. He estimated that if it continued to grow at a more modest 30 percent, there would be 60 million Mormons by the year 2080; if 50 percent, the figure would explode to 265 million.
He famously predicted that the LDS Church "will soon achieve a worldwide following comparable to that of Islam, Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism, and the other dominant world faiths."
Latter-day Saints were on the threshold of becoming "the first major faith to appear on earth since the Prophet Mohammed rode out of the desert," Stark wrote.
Many people, especially Mormons, eagerly embraced Stark's assessment. In recent years, though, some scholars have challenged his assumptions.
For one thing, True Pure Land Buddhism, Sokka Gakkai, Baha'i and Sufism are all of comparable or greater size and have arisen since Islam in the 7th century, said Gerald McDermott, a religious studies professor at Virginia's Roanoke College who gave a paper at a Library of Congress symposium on Mormonism in April.
One key to Mormonism becoming a world religion, McDermott says, is how well it can transcend its founding culture to become universal. Catholicism, for example, began in Jerusalem but found a home in many other places, where it easily assimilated into local cultures.
The LDS message has found a ready audience in Latin America and the South Pacific, where Mormon missionaries can tell people God did not neglect them. The Book of Mormon is the story of a Hebrew family that migrated from Jerusalem to the New World and tells of a visit to their descendants by Jesus Christ after his resurrection.
Still, the church may not fare as well as other Christian religions in Africa and China, since it has no such reassurance for them, he says.
American faith: Mormonism is "so thoroughly American," McDermott said in a recent phone interview. "God visited [Mormon founder] Joseph Smith in upstate New York. Eden began in Missouri and the millennium will end there. The new exodus took place in North America."
None of these critiques bother Stark, who now teaches at Baylor University in Waco, Texas. He is amused by the reactions.
Dave <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:DAVEH: I did not find that one (post the link if you can find it), but did run across several instances where the growth rate is stated to be positive, though less than previous years.....
In fact, according to the church's own accounts, the growth rate is declining! In 1996 the church reported a growth rate of 4.24%. In 1999, the growth rate had fallen by 44%, to 2.37%, as reported in the December 1999 issue of the official church magazine Ensign.
.........and as you posted below......
"The average missionary in 1989 brought 9.1 people into the church, while in 2000 the average missionary brought 4.6 people into the church. When one accounts for actual activity and retention rates, with the great majority of LDS convert growth occurring in Latin America and other areas with low retention and only 20-25% of convert growth occurring in North America, it can be determined that of the 4.6 persons baptized by the average missionary each year, approximately 1.3 will remain active."
.........So Kevin, I don't know why you would suggest That growth has slowed to a trickle, or no growth when the missionaries alone (not counting the birth rate of LDS folks) is accounting for about 100,000 per year. That hardly seems like no growth to me. And if you consider that a trickle, it seems like a pretty big trickle. I suppose in a few years we can look again at the numbers the National Council of Churches stats......
http://www.ncccusa.org/news/050330yearbook.html
..........to see if the LDS Church is in decline as you are suggesting. Do you suppose it will eventually climb to #4 position, knocking out the United Methodist Church in the process? Time will tell....
As for your suggestion about the Church keeping the retention rate a secret, I'm not sure one can even quantify such data.
Kevin Deegan wrote:The links stated something to the effect that the LDS Church was the only one that withheld retention numbers.
Dave <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:DAVEH: I find your perspective on this to be rather interesting, Kevin. I think you seriously underestimate the strength of the Church, based on your misinterpretation/misunderstanding of a newspaper article. But, as before...you will believe what you wish, though it may may be inaccurate.
BTW......I don't think the LDS Church has kept it's membership (growth) info confidential.
Kevin Deegan wrote:I believe that the LDS church was growing quickly a few years ago. That growth has slowed to a trickle, or no growth. You must consider the retention rate as of late, but the church holds certain information secret.DAVEH: Do you truly believe the LDS Church is not growing, Kevin?
Kevin Deegan wrote:Looks like the official LDS site might have gotten it wrong after all!The Church of Jesus Christ Will Never Be DestroyedSince its restoration in 1830, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has grown rapidly in membership. There are members in nearly every country in the world. The Church will continue to grow. As Christ said, "This Gospel of the Kingdom shall be preached in all the world, for a witness unto all nations" (Joseph Smith--Matthew 1:31). The Church will never again be taken from the earth. Its mission is to take the truth to every person. Thousands of years ago, the Lord said he would "set up a kingdom, which shall never be destroyed: and the kingdom shall not be left to other people, . . . and it shall stand for ever" (Daniel 2:44).
Kevin Deegan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:Sounds like it is rife throughout the LDS community, why else would some GET ANGY over statements that Church growth is on a slide? Can you come up with an alternat conclusion?Several readers were so unhappy to read these findings that they cancelled their subscriptions to the newspaper.To us, this all sounds like interesting social science, not something to get angry at the newspaper about. Yet some callers saw the articles as a deliberate swipe at their church. One woman chastised the Herald for being part of the "evil, corrupt media that have led our children astray." Some others thought the articles were discouraging and should not have been printed in a community dominated by Mormons, saying, "You people had better notice who your customers are."
Dave <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:So using LDS "Logic"We see without a DOUBT the RCC "MUST BE THE ONE TRUE CHURCH"
DAVEH: You seem to be confusing the facts (of what was posted) to fit your illogical conclusion, Kevin. What Blaine said about the relatively rapid growth of the LDS Church is of no relevance to the size or trueness of the RCC folks.
Kevin Deegan wrote:DAVEH: Why would you think that is LDS logic to assume such, Kevin?bborrow26 Sat, 26 Feb 2005 07:00:52 -0800On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 20:41:53 EST [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: In a message dated 2/25/2005 5:09:28 PM Pacific Standard Time,
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
> > The LDS Church will continue to advance and grow, because the people who are minding the store, so to speak, have received their commission from above.> > Blainer) Mormonism, or the religion of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, has succeeded to the tune of 11,000,000 + current members, and with a current growth rate of 19.3 % is the fastest growing denomination in the United States and is currently the sixth
largest denomination in the US. This is not failure in any sense, but begins to fulfill revelation given to the Prophet Joseph Smith:Blainer) The figures don't lie. The rate of growth for the Mormon Church exceeds even the Moslems in the US. Zion will flourish, and the Kingdom of God will be established by the Mormon Church. It is just a matter of time.> > BlaineR (Mr. NO-CREDIBILITY) You pulled the switcheroo!! Below is my post that STARTED this "discussion" to begin with. Note, everyone, that Glenn thus far has failed to address the Mormon growth rate. He just wants to talk about the numbers. GLENN, ARE YOU AFRAID TO DISCUSS THE GROWTH RATE OF THE MORMON CHURCH? (19.3 % last year, 2001). This is the second time I have asked that, and so far--zilch for an answer."During the decade of the 1990s, many rapidly-growing churches, including the Adventists, Southern Baptists, Assemblies of God, and numerous Pentecostal groups, reported accelerating growth trends throughout the decade, while The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints experienced persistent trends of decelerating growth."
"After more than a decade of proselyting in Russia with the largest full-time missionary force of any denomination, LDS membership has risen to only 11,000, with a fraction of those members remaining active. The same period has seen the number of active Jehovah's Witnesses in Russia rise to over 120,000, with some 275,000 individuals attending conferences."
"The Assemblies of God are growing at approximately 10% per year, or over three times the growth rate of the LDS Church, while the Seventh-day Adventists report growth two to three times LDS rates at 5.6-8% per year."
"While the Church makes no claims about member activity rates and no official reports of LDS activity rates are published, the Encyclopedia of Mormonism notes, "Attendance at sacrament meeting varies substantially. Canada, the South Pacific, and the United States average between 40 percent and 50 percent. Europe and Africa average about 35 percent. Asia and Latin America have weekly attendance rates of about 25 percentÂ…European LDS activity rates appear to have fallen well below the older 35% figure cited in the Encyclopedia of Mormonism."
"The average missionary in 1989 brought 9.1 people into the church, while in 2000 the average missionary brought 4.6 people into the church. When one accounts for actual activity and retention rates, with the great majority of LDS convert growth occurring in Latin America and other areas with low retention and only 20-25% of convert growth occurring in North America, it can be determined that of the 4.6 persons baptized by the average missionary each year, approximately 1.3 will remain active."
http://home.teleport.com/~packham/growth.htm
The stake mission leader gave a lesson on missionary work that was somewhat frantic.
Apparently, the conversion numbers are slipping drastically. The church is getting the same number of new converts as in 1989, but they are using twice as many missionaries to do it. He actually stated that these numbers indicate that the church is in a state of apostasy. What makes this even more interesting is that he was clearly getting the bulk of his lesson from what he had heard from Area leaders.
He also said that churchwide, temples are operating at 11% of capacity! I was staggered. I would have guessed maybe 30% at the least.
Dave <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:DAVEH: Why would you think that is LDS logic to assume such, Kevin? Read through the posts regarding this thread. You will see my (and Blaine's) post was an attempt to bring a little truth, knowledge and accuracy to TT. Your post is apparently an effort to bring a little untruth to TT, as neither of us suggested that the size of the LDS Church reflects its truthfulness.
Kevin Deegan wrote:So using LDS "Logic"Blainerb: Interesting Dave, thanks--I have copied a part of one of the below site addresses for the quick and easy perusal of TTr's:Here's the 2005 list of the largest U.S. denominations:
1. The Catholic Church - 67,259,768
2. Southern Baptist Convention - 16,439,603
3. The United Methodist Church - 8,251,175
4. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints - 5,503,192
5. The Church of God in Christ - 5,449, 875
6. National Baptist Convention, U.S.A., Inc. - 5,000,000
7. Evangelical Lutheran Church in America - 4,984,925
8. National Baptist Convention of America, Inc. - 3,500,000
9. Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) - 3,241,309
10. Assemblies of God - 2,729,562
11. African Methodist Episcopal Church - 2,500,000
12. National Missionary Baptist Convention of America - 2,500,000
13. Progressive National Baptist Convention - 2,500,000
14. The Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod (LCMS) - 2,488,936
15. Episcopal Church - 2,320,221
16. Churches of Christ - 1,500,000
17. Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America - 1,500,000
18. Pentecostal Assemblies of the World, Inc. - 1,500,000
19. American Baptist Churches in the U.S.A. - 1,433,075
20. The African Methodist Episcopal Zion Church - 1,432,795
21. United Church of Christ - 1,296,652
22. Baptist Bible Fellowship International - 1,200,000
23. Christian Churches and Churches of Christ - 1,071,616
24. Jehovah's Witnesses - 1,041,030
25. The Orthodox Church in America - 1,000,000
Philip E. Jenks of the National Council of Churches contributed to this story. The 2005 Yearbook of American & Canadian Churches can be ordered at www.electronicchurch.org/order/eorder.In a message dated 7/27/2005 10:54:49 P.M. Mountain Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:DAVEH: Your numbers seem a little low, John. How old are they? Here's one from 3 years ago that is a bit higher......
http://www.religioscope.........com/info/notes/2002_020_US_church_stat.htm
........And here is another that is from just a few months ago....
http://news.ucc.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=72&Itemid=54
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:FYI ----- The Mormon Church is the 8t largest denom in the US with 2, 787,000 adherents.Churches of Christ in 9th with 2,503,000 members. Within the US, growth rates for both groups are nearly flat line. In foreign countries, however, Mormons have a very strong presence (somewhere around 11 to 13 million) will the Churches of Christ have only a few hundred thousands. I mention C of C because of the association this church has with the beginnings of the Mormon church (IMO).JD-- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dave Hansen [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.langlitz.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you wish to receive things I find interesting, I maintain six email lists... JOKESTER, OPINIONS, LDS, STUFF, MOTORCYCLE and CLIPS.__________________________________________________
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