On Mon, Oct 12, 2009 at 9:15 AM, [email protected] <[email protected]> wrote: > Debate Over Effects of Leno’s Show > By BILL CARTER http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/12/business/media/12nbc.html
This is an excellent summary of the issues and various perspectives. It also raises three interesting (to me) questions: > His ratings, after a big first week, have leveled off to about five > million viewers a night (though some nights have been much lower) with > a 1.5 to 2 rating in the category NBC identifies as all-important, > viewers ages 18 to 49 (SNIP) The network guaranteed advertisers > that it would average only a 1.5 rating. #1. Doesn't NBC have to be worried that Leno dropped so quickly from the very high curiosity numbers the first week to flirting with the minimum sustainable rating? Leno is now in a situation where he really can not tolerate much decline in viewership over the rest of the year. He may not show any decline, but I have to think NBC was hoping to have more of a buffer at this early point. It is now even more important that their predicted advantage over reruns proves to be true. > Among the top 15 cities > in the country, ratings for the late news — a prime source of revenue > for local television — are down 10 to 30 percent > > But so far the owners seem to be holding their tongues — along with > their breath. “You don’t make decisions based on a week or two,” said > Michael Fiorile, the vice chairman of the Dispatch Broadcasting Group, > which owns the NBC affiliate in Indianapolis. “Six months from now > we’ll take a look at the trends.” #2. Is there some kind of escape clause for NBC to get out of this Leno experiment by the start of pilot season? One of my big questions all along has been how NBC could ever get back into 10:00 programming once Leno decides he wants to retire - by then they would have almost nothing in the bank, and ruptured relationships with producers. But if they had an option to get out this spring, they could pick up without missing too much of a beat. And that might be why the affiliates are staying calm - if they know they can pressure NBC to get out of the Leno business if 6 months of numbers show them taking it in the shorts for the 11:00 . > But NBC is justifying the move by citing both the savings Mr. Leno’s > show represents over expensive 10 p.m. dramas and the apparent > disintegration of the 10 p.m. hour across the board. Mr. Gaspin > repeated NBC’s conclusion that hits cannot be established at 10 > anymore, largely because the hour is dominated by viewers playing back > recorded shows on digital video recorders. > > “Look at how ABC is doing at 10 against Jay,” Mr. Gaspin said. #3.Why is 10:00 the DVR Hour? There is a good point here - if there has been an explosion in the number of hours of television programming available, and new devices capable of easily capturing and playing back any of these hours, but still only 24 hours in a day, then it is inevitable that there will be significantly fewer eyes available to watch any one particular show. But the idea behind this impacting 10:00 the most seems to be that people are recording 8:00 and 9:00 programs and then watching them at 10:00. That is not really my pattern - with a very few exceptions I don't feel any need to watch a program on the same day it was broadcast (almost all exceptions are sports). It seems odd to me that NBC would decide that 10:00 is the hour that is disproportionately hurt. Put on good programs at 10:00 and people will record those to watch later if necessary. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
