On Wed, Dec 23, 2009 at 10:31 AM, <[email protected]> wrote:

> I wish NBC would return to repurposing Jay Leno shows by rerunning
> them one week later at 3 am (and clear out Poker After Dark, one of
> the least interesting programs in network broadcast history).
> I do think that those who are waiting for NBC to restore conventional
> primetime to the 10 pm hour are waiting in vain.  As the most negative
> result so far is the diminished leadin to local news, it's much more
> likely that NBC will eventually allow affiliates to move the late news
> to 10 and delay Jay Leno to 10.30 or 10.35.  Lowering half of the
> advertising minutes from primetime to fringe rates should still leave
> NBC more profitble in the 10-11.35 pm time period than reverting to
> the old primetime model.
>

I have seen a lot of people pushing this solution, but it raises several
important questions that I have not seen addressed. How would the impact
Conan? It seems to demote him right back to where he was before - the second
after-prime-time talk show on NBC. It is possible there is a clause in
Conan's contract that either prevents this, or pays him a huge bonus, or
allows him to opt out if it happens, or that Conan would at least leave NBC
when his contract expires (which is what NBC did all of this to prevent in
the first place). I don't know much about the midwest, but would they really
want to put on local news at 9:00 pm? It is also not clear that moving late
local news to 10:00 on NBC would actually help them - in the early 1990s
both the NBC and (I think) CBS affiliates in San Francisco went to the
"Early Prime Time", with network shows starting at 7:00 and late local news
at 10:00. Neither could beat the independent local news on KTVU, and the
experiment ended after a year or two. It seems like the kind of people who
like to watch late local news (i.e., old people) also like to watch CSI
Miami and NY and Castle and etc. A move like this also literally reduces NBC
to a second-tier broadcasting network, which maybe is what is inevitably
going to happen, especially if and when the Comcast deal goes through, but I
wonder if they are really ready to make this so explicit so soon.

Moving Leno to 11:00 may eventually happen; I will be shocked if it happens
this year though, and I doubt it will even happen next year. Unless they
work out something that genuinely makes Conan happy with this, I think it is
more likely that in a year or two NBC just moves Leno back to the Tonight
Show and lets Conan go to ABC or Fox.

-- 
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