I am starting to see a small piece of inaccurate conventional wisdom begin
to get repeated online about Leno. James
Poniewozik<http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/author/jponiewozik/> James
Poniewozik at Time.com (
http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/2010/01/08/jaypocalypse-now-what-is-nbc-thinking/?xid=rss-topstories#ixzz0c3TCYVM1)
says this:

"As I said, to be fair to NBC, Leno actually did seem to fall within
expectations ratings-wise, if on the low end. (Now NBC's *hopes* for
Leno—that's another story.) He beat other networks' reruns in December
though he was usually third against original programming—like NBC had said."
I have seen similar statements elsewhere.

<http://search.twitter.com/search?q=He%20beat%20other%20networks%27%20reruns%20in%20December%20though%20he%20was%20usually%20third%20against%20original%20programming%E2%80%94like%20NBC%20had%20said.%20><http://www.google.com/search?q=He%20beat%20other%20networks%27%20reruns%20in%20December%20though%20he%20was%20usually%20third%20against%20original%20programming%E2%80%94like%20NBC%20had%20said.%20><http://smarterfox.com/wikisearch/search?q=He%20beat%20other%20networks%27%20reruns%20in%20December%20though%20he%20was%20usually%20third%20against%20original%20programming%E2%80%94like%20NBC%20had%20said.%20&locale=en-US><http://www.oneriot.com/search?p=smarterfox&ssrc=smarterfox_popup_bubble&spid=8493c8f1-0b5b-4116-99fd-f0bcb0a3b602&q=He%20beat%20other%20networks%27%20reruns%20in%20December%20though%20he%20was%20usually%20third%20against%20original%20programming%E2%80%94like%20NBC%20had%20said.%20>
Also, I had a short email exchange with our old friend Aaron Barnhart about
this as well, because I think he implied something similar in his radio spot
on KNX yesterday (http://blogs.kansascity.com/tvbarn/2010/01/dumpjay.html)

It is inaccurate (or at least incomplete) to say that Leno beat other
network's reruns in December. What he did (most of the time) is beat ABC's
reruns. He has almost never beaten a CBS rerun (with the exception of one or
two Numb3rs reruns - and then it was close, and only in the demo, not total
viewers). But he was always beat, and beat badly, by the CSIs and the
Mentalist

>From week 4 to Week 15 (not counting the first three weeks, when ratings
were abnormally high, or last week, when they were abnormally low) Leno
averaged 5.1 M viewers per night, for a demo rating of about 1.5. I suppose
this is the "low end" of NBC's rating expectations, if by that you mean the
minimum rating that NBC said Leno needed in order to turn a profit.  I don't
think anyone really believes that this was the level NBC expected The Jay
Leno show to perform at. Plus, of course, Leno did not "catch them on the
curves" - he was unable to beat, or even come a close second to, the CBS
10:00 programs when they were in reruns. When NBC says (as it has many
times) that Leno has performed as expected, though they understand he is not
delivering enough viewers to the affiliates for the late local news, it is
talking out of both sides of its ass. Nobody thinks that NBC intentionally
scheduled 5 hours a week at 10:00 that would not deliver enough viewers for
the late local news. The current state of affairs can only mean that the
Leno show has not been doing as well in the ratings as NBC expected it to.

One element in the story yesterday that has not seemed to get a lot of
attention is that FTVLive reported that it was the accountants at NBC who
said "You know what, Leno really is not making money for us" (see the link
above to the KNX piece on the story for the audio quote). As far as I know
the actual profit loss statement is not publicly available, but from the
beginning I have not been convinced that Leno can make a net profit for NBC
at  the 5M viewer level, and I think that truth is what is leading to the
current developments.

Leno averages about 5.3M viewers for T-TH, and I think if they had 2 extra
days to write and produce they would put out a better product and have the
potential to build that up to 5.5M. This is why I have argued that what NBC
should be doing is truncating the Jay Leno Show to a 3 night a week program,
which would have preserved their relationship with Conan, and given them
only 2 hours a week of programming to fill instead of 5.
-- 
TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People!
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