Widely believed among the general population or among AI researchers? The 
former may be true and probably has been true for the past 30 years :)

As for the latter, researchers by nature are more cynical, but I do think that 
the confluence of big data, cloud computing, deep nets, and integrated 
solutions such as Watson, have brought a new sense of optimism to the field 
that hasn't existed in maybe 30 years.

Just my opinion.
Denver

On Aug 21, 2013, at 11:54 AM, "Richard E. Neapolitan" 
<[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>
 wrote:

Dear Colleagues,
One of my publisher's asked me to review  a proposal for a book. The theme of 
the book is predicated on the statement that "it is widely believed that in the 
next 10 to 100 years scientists will succeed in creating human level artificial 
general intelligence." There is no research that gives me any reason to believe 
this. In my recent AI textbook I took the stance that we have essentially 
failed at this endeavor. Does anyone know of any research that would make 
someone make such a statement?
Thanks,
Rich

--
Richard E. Neapolitan, Ph.D., Professor
Division of Health and Biomedical Informatics
Department of Preventive Medicine
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
750 N. Lake Shore Drive, 11th floor
Chicago IL 60611

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