If we can't get an answer, let's change the question. :) It's becoming increasingly clear that in short order (like 10-100 years) we will have a near-human-level (or better) artificial capability for any particular human faculty. It's happened to chess. It's happening to Jeopardy and driving.
But to get to a "general AI", you need to ask yourself the integration question: how much distance is there between a great chess program and Watson? Can you put that into one system? The answer should be that you don't need to. It doesn't happen in humans - the best drivers are not Jeopardy champions. The integrative aspect is however precisely what GOFAI has been flailing at with much in the way of neat domain-specific accomplishments but little in the way of breakthrough. So, what is being asked? Human-level artificial performance being available for any given task? Probably. A device able to perform nearly any task to the median human performance? Not in a hundred years. Tomas On Wed, Aug 21, 2013 at 9:46 AM, Dash, Denver H <[email protected]>wrote: > Widely believed among the general population or among AI researchers? The > former may be true and probably has been true for the past 30 years :) > > As for the latter, researchers by nature are more cynical, but I do think > that the confluence of big data, cloud computing, deep nets, and integrated > solutions such as Watson, have brought a new sense of optimism to the field > that hasn't existed in maybe 30 years. > > Just my opinion. > Denver > > On Aug 21, 2013, at 11:54 AM, "Richard E. Neapolitan" < > [email protected]<mailto: > [email protected]>> wrote: > > Dear Colleagues, > One of my publisher's asked me to review a proposal for a book. The theme > of the book is predicated on the statement that "it is widely believed that > in the next 10 to 100 years scientists will succeed in creating human level > artificial general intelligence." There is no research that gives me any > reason to believe this. In my recent AI textbook I took the stance that we > have essentially failed at this endeavor. Does anyone know of any research > that would make someone make such a statement? > Thanks, > Rich > > -- > Richard E. Neapolitan, Ph.D., Professor > Division of Health and Biomedical Informatics > Department of Preventive Medicine > Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine > 750 N. Lake Shore Drive, 11th floor > Chicago IL 60611 > > _______________________________________________ > uai mailing list > [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> > https://secure.engr.oregonstate.edu/mailman/listinfo/uai > > _______________________________________________ > uai mailing list > [email protected] > https://secure.engr.oregonstate.edu/mailman/listinfo/uai >
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