By
Terrell E. Arnold
12-2-2
- After the attacks of 9-11 the United States launched a
War to rid our country and the world of Terrorism. That War got off to a
brisk start, ousting the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan and attacking the
hideouts of Al Qaida and Osama Bin Laden. The War bogged down in
Afghanistan, however, because there are many places to hide, and Al
Qaida has allies in several potential safe-haven countries. But
Afghanistan is only the beginning, because terrorist groups exist in 75
or more countries. Ultimately, that War cannot succeed, because
terrorism grows out of deeply embedded, complex global issues, and the
War on Terrorism does not address any of them. If we hope to win, we
must get at the causes.
Where Real Effort Should Be
USAID statements present the problem clearly. As
AID Administrator Andrew Natsios observed in May 2001, USAID has
missions in 75 countries, and in 50 of those countries major conflicts
occurred during the past five years. Most of these countries have
terrorist groups that existed before we ever heard of Al Qaida. These
countries are among the least developed economically and the least
modern politically.
The enemies in the real war on terrorism are
poverty, ignorance, differences of culture or religion, social,
political and economic injustice, destruction of the environment, and
exclusion of out-groups from the mainstreams of many societies. Official
US, UN and other government statements cite the critical roles of these
global issues in world terrorism. But the attack by all governments and
the UN is weak and misdirected.
Where Do We Go Wrong?
The global effort falls way short of need. US
economic and humanitarian assistance is larger than the programs of all
other aid-giving countries combined, but it will be only about $8.5
billion in 2003. If it were evenly spread among aid recipients, it would
amount to less than $4 per person.
The money does not go where it is most needed.
Upward of half of US AID funds go to Israel and Egypt; the lion�s share
goes to Israel. In effect, Congress decided to pay for the Palestine
peace process with the existing aid budget, forcing sharp cuts in
assistance to all other countries. Congress cut assistance more when the
Cold War ended. Thus, aid to the 70 or so needy countries amounts to
less than $2 per person per year. Annual aid to Israel, in grants and
loans that are routinely forgiven, amounts to $600-800 or more per
person.
Little to none of the money is spent on economic
growth. The largest human needs for assistance exist in Asia, Africa and
Latin America where the money is spent on programs to grow more food,
improve health, cope with the aids/hiv pandemic, and to democratize
countries and reduce conflicts.
What Became Of Dedication To Growth?
In the 1950s and 60s, development economists
argued that rapid economic growth was the key to escape from
underdevelopment, because growth advanced the critical indicators:
income, employment, education, health, as well as political and economic
modernization. However, beginning in the 1970s, Congress put the brakes
on funding for growth, while in the work of a new school of development
economists, growth strategies fell completely out of favor.
The World Bank now suggests that early development
economists had it right by putting first priority on economic growth.
The key ingredient in underdevelopment is scarcity. Growth in income and
the alleviation of scarcity produce improvements in the quality of life
across a broad set of indicators. In sum, we may have wasted several
decades by placing growth at the bottom of our priorities.
The Terrorism Generators
Even with a quick turnaround, scarcity can drive
the terrorism generators for years to come. The numbers of people left
out, angered, frustrated and rendered militant by problems of
overcrowding and poverty are likely to grow at frightening speed,
because most of the 2 billion people to be born between now and 2025
will be born in the poorer countries.
This is the wind in Al Qaida�s sails. If advanced
countries do nothing to reduce the economic and social distances between
�North� (wealthy) and �South� (impoverished) countries, Osama bin Laden
and the leaders of other terrorist groups will exploit the growing gap
to generate new outbreaks of terrorism.
What Needs To Be Done
Congress must first insist that assistance goes to
people who need it most, and Congress must sharply increase the aid
budget. US diplomatic efforts must focus on sharp increases in
assistance from other governments. The wealthy of the planet must put in
the resources needed to do serious developmental work, and they must
keep working the problem until the results are assured.
How To Get To The Future
Assuming that we do not destroy ourselves on
route, we can get to the future in two ways. One is to continue present
trends that assure we will face endless conflict and constant threats of
terrorism. The other is to lift the bottom of the human condition by
dedication and sacrifice to improve the quality of life for everybody.
We must start down this road, and we must make our destination clear to
everyone. If we make an honest and dedicated effort to help the weak,
they will help us contain terrorism. If we do nothing about the causes
of terrorism, we must learn to live in fear.
Above all we must act now. The matter is
urgent.
-
- The writer is a retired senior foreign service officer
of the United States Department of State
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The Mulindwas
communication group
"With Yoweri Museveni, Uganda is in
anarchy"
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