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Has Uganda�s star finally lost its sparkle?
SUCCESS: Museveni has been in power for nearly 20 years
Uganda in the forieign press
LATELY, some people have begun to wonder whether President Yoweri Museveni is really a revolutionary democrat or just another African Big Man, writes Laurie Goering of The Chicago Tribune
Eighteen years ago, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni seized this nation devastated by endless war and set about transforming it into an African success story.
He privatised failing state industries and brought runaway inflation under control. He spurred Uganda�s economic growth rate to a sustained 6 percent to 7 percent a year, a level considered key to making strides against poverty. Since 1992, the number of Ugandans living below the poverty line has fallen more than 10 percent.
Just as important, Museveni soothed festering ethnic divides that once tore apart the country, stemmed a threatened AIDS epidemic, doubled the number of children in primary school and gave women a guaranteed share of political sea ts. Then-US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright called him a �beacon of hope� for Africa, part of a new generation of leaders committed to solving the continent�s problems.
President Bill Clinton paid him a visit. Western aid donors, eager to support an African success story, poured money into Uganda. Lately, however, nearly everyone has begun to wonder whether Museveni is really a revolutionary democrat or just another African �Big Man�. Though he once promised to serve no more than one term in office, Museveni�s allies are pushing to change Uganda�s Constitution to allow the president a fifth term, along with controversial powers to dissolve parliament. Allegations of corruption in the administration �including vote-buying in parliament � are growing. Half the university graduates cannot find jobs. Economic growth is slowing.
This year, donor nations and international lending agencies that provide 52 percent of Uganda�s budget rejected Museveni�s plans to inc rease defence spending at the cost of poverty-eradication programmes. �Uganda is a good study of a democratic process that has come to a halt and is being pushed backward,� said Augustine Ruzindana, a member of parliament and former ally of the president. �Museveni used to be very idealistic and had the public interest at heart,� he said. But now �it is becoming evident he is not strong enough to resist the temptations of power.�
Africa, at the start of a new century, is struggling to remake itself. Its leaders, trying to ease the continent�s persistent poverty and other glaring problems, are sorting through deeply rooted cultural traditions, colonial-era legacies and the new demands of a globalised world, searching for African answers to Africa�s problems. In the process, they are redefining what it means to be an African success. Part of that involves resolving the conflict between African tradition, which often allows popular leaders to rule for life, and the continent� s widespread desire for Western-style democracy, with presidential term limits, regular changes of leadership and checks and balances on the power of the top executive.
In parts of Africa, democracy is gradually getting the upper hand. Sam Nujoma, the longtime president of Namibia, and Mozambique�s multiterm president, Joachim Chissano, both are stepping down after elections. South Africa�s Nelson Mandela showed the most restraint of all, leaving office in 1999 after only one term despite his overwhelming popularity. But across much of the rest of the continent, leaders have been notoriously reluctant to leave office. Togo and Gabon have had the same presidents since 1967. Zimbabwe�s Robert Mugabe remains in office after 17 years because of vote-rigging and intimidation of the opposition in the most recent presidential elections.
Kenya�s Daniel arap Moi stepped down in 2002 after 24 years in office, but only under heavy international pressure. In Uganda, Museve ni faces a decision that may determine his legacy. Whether he runs for re-election in 2006 is likely to determine whether he goes down in history as a democratic visionary in East Africa or, as his top adviser puts it, �just another African leader who wanted to go on and on.� �If he were to stand, he would jeopardise his chances of stepping into Mandela�s shoes,� said John Nagenda, Museveni�s senior adviser, who has urged him not to run again. Still, �every country has the right to change its constitution if it wants to,� he noted. �Whether it is a good idea, that is debatable.� In rural areas, Museveni is still a popular hero, credited with rescuing the devastated country from the dark days of dictators Idi Amin and Milton Obote.
He took 70 percent of the vote in the last presidential election in 2001, though Amnesty International and a handful of observer countries, including Kenya and South Africa, criticised the government for intimidating opposition voters.
In mu ch of Uganda, �people think there�s nobody out there who could do a better job than him,� said Onapito Ekomoloit, Museveni�s press secretary. �There has been no figure who in any way compares with the president.� Yet after Museveni�s many years in office, enthusiasm for him is beginning to flag. In a poll published in August by the Monitor, newspaper, 69 percent of responding Ugandans said they prefer to keep the nation�s constitutional term limits in place, which would prevent Museveni from running--and, everyone agrees, winning in 2006.
The problem is finding someone to replace a president who has determinedly thwarted the emergence of rivals. As part of his effort to heal Uganda�s ethnic rifts, Museveni banned political parties, which he believed split the country on tribal lines, and called on opponents to join his National Resistance Movement. The result, nearly 20 years later, is that Museveni has no real political opposition. The handful of old parties that r emain despite the ban on their activities are widely discredited, and the government has so far failed to follow through on promises to register new parties, including splinter groups from The Movement, as Musevenis organisation is known.
The president also has not groomed a successor, a clear sign, critics say, that he has no intention of stepping down. �That Museveni wants to run indefinitely is a foregone conclusion. He sees himself as the only man with a vision,� said James Rwanyarare, a spokesman for the Uganda People�s Congress, an opposition party that nonetheless sports a life-sized painting of Obote in its Kampala offices. �But the only way for government to work is through institutions, not just an individual. The answer for Uganda is to have politically viable institutions.�
An increasing number of Ugandans believe that Museveni, with his conviction that only he can solve Uganda�s lingering problems and hold the nation together, is now a threat, rather t han an asset, to Uganda�s democratic institutions and its long-term democratic prospects. Uganda�s media are among the continent�s most vibrant, quick to criticise the president for his failings. Its judicial system has made key decisions against the president�s interests, and its parliament often engages in spirited debate. But proposed constitutional changes � including the lifting of term limits and new powers for the president to dissolve parliament if it disagrees with him � threaten those institutions, critics say. Uganda�s headlines are full of allegations that the president�s allies are buying votes in support of the changes.
�Indications are the constitution will be amended, whether we like it or not,� said Sheila Kawamara, a Ugandan member of the East African Legislative Assembly� a multicountry parliament with largely advisory powers � and a women�s rights activist. Critics say the central problem is that Museveni, after many years in office and many accolades, h as come to believe only he knows what is best for the country. Even Nagenda, the president�s adviser, notes on his Website that Museveni�s strength of conviction �has led him to find it increasingly hard to brook opposition� in recent years and that he has become �increasingly hard-line, personalising the issues of opponents and refusing to recognise that they reflect genuine grievances.� "He�s so convinced he�s made good decisions that he�s confused the state�s interest with his interest,� added one diplomat in Kampala.
Part of the difficulty in persuading Museveni to accept change is that aid donors and other international backers, who embraced the president as an African star in the 1990s and who still provide much of Uganda�s funding, now find it somewhat embarrassing to suggest he is less than a democratic hero.
�They were looking for the great African success story, and this was it,� said Charles Onyango-Obbo, a Ugandan opposition journalist repeatedly arrested and charged with bringing the president�s name into disrepute.
Now �it has become very hard for them to say he was wrong without putting their own credibility on the line.� Critics say that if Museveni stays in power another term, he could well drive his frustrated opponents toward Uganda�s traditional method for removing presidents � the military coup.
Since Uganda became independent in 1963, every one of its presidents has left at gunpoint. �If he succeeds in manipulating the constitution and breaking down the separation of powers, a lot of people will say the only way to change now is through violence,� said Aggrey Awori, a parliamentarian who faced Museveni for the presidency in 2001 and plans to run in 2006.
Other critics see a more benign scenario. Even if Museveni wins in 2006, they say, young voters � a growing proportion of the electorate � will eventually stop him from becoming president for life, as long as elections are free and fair. A growin g proportion of young voters, thanks to the president, are educated, and �if you can read and write, you can reason,� Kawamara said.
�He loves his country and has a vision but there are many people out there who have the same ability. When you stay too long, you burn out. It is just human, she said.Published on: Monday, 27th December, 2004
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