I honestly just wanted to laugh. Anyone who's familiar (read some books about it) with Apple's corporate history knows that, if anyone's their own worst enemy, it's Apple.
Apple's had a copious amount of mindshare forever, yet has been _totally unable_ to convert that to concrete computer market share gains. Apple has only just managed to make it back to their _nominal_, non-inflation-adjusted revenues from their Apple II days. The idea that Microsoft is now on its last legs because Steve Jobs is back (much of Apple's current troubles are a result of Steve's bad decisions in the past) and MacOS X doesn't suck reeks of delusion. Then you just toss in the Cedega crap, and it's obvious the guy doesn't understand the market at all. -DMZ, a long-time Mac, Windows, and Linux user On Sun, 2005-08-28 at 01:44 -0400, Steve Moskovchenko wrote: > Hello all. > This is an article that was sent to me by a co-worker. It appeared on an > Apple fan web site called Apple Matters. Keep the source in mind, but it > is still an amusing read (especially that part about IE7). > > Enjoy > email message attachment, "Forwarded message - How Microsoft Will Die > by James R. Stoup" > On Sun, 2005-08-28 at 01:44 -0400, Steve Moskovchenko wrote: > > Longhorn, by the features > > > > > > WFS: Cut > > > > .NET Framework: Cut > > > > MONAD: Cut > > > > Integrated Search: Cut > > > > Avalon: Who knows? > > > > Indigo: Who knows? > > > > IE7: You can repaint a Kia, lower it down, put rims on it and think you are > > cool, but at the end of the day it is still a Kia. > > > > > > And so it goes, on and on. Feature after feature is cut, promise after > > promise is broken, and what do we have at the end of the day? XP SP3. If > > Microsoft fails to deliver something approaching decent with Longhorn then > > they will be in trouble. Big trouble. And most people haven’t even > > realized this yet. But they will soon enough. > > > > > > Why are they in trouble? > > > > > > Momentum. It all boils down to momentum. Google has it. Sony has it. Apple > > has it pouring out of its orifices, Microsoft though. . .not so much. > > > > > > You see momentum is what pushes that reluctant manager to go ahead and > > upgrade his system instead of waiting for something better or (very scary > > music plays in the background) switching to Linux. Momentum is what gets a > > word of mouth campaign going that convinces your everyday user to go out > > and > > buy the latest OS. Momentum is what keeps the media friendly, sort of. > > > > > > But lately MS has been getting all of the wrong types of momentum. They > > aren’t getting that “battering ram” momentum no, it’s more like at > > sinking ship momentum. You see the ram is going through, but the ship is > > going down. Big difference. > > > > > > Right now Microsoft can’t even hold a press release about Longhorn without > > either saying its going to be delayed again or that they are cutting even > > more features. This really makes them look incompetent. I mean, I know they > > are incompetent but this really lets the rest of the world in on the joke > > as > > well. > > > > > > And no matter how they spin it they have now reached the point where it’s > > impossible to make the situation sound any better than it is. Three years > > ago they could have made these announcements from a position of strength. > > Two years ago they could have made these announcements and then lied > > heavily > > in hopes of saving face. One year ago they made these announcements and it > > started looking really scary for anyone whose business depended on > > Longhorn. > > And now this year these announcements make them look like a company that is > > adrift, with no real vision, desperately trying not to drown. > > Congratulations Bill you have officially lost any momentum you thought you > > might have had. > > > > > > The 3 nails in the MS coffin > > > > > > In order of importance: > > > > > > 1. Microsoft > > > > They have always been their worst enemy. Shoddy software practices are > > forced on programmers due to incompetent managers which in turn produces > > the > > mess that is Longhorn. Even if the computing world was relatively quiet > > (which it isn’t, not by a long shot) then MS would still be in deep horse > > pucky over the gross stupidity that their leadership has shown. And to make > > matters even worse management has now realized that this time there isn’t > > going to be a “quick fix”. There are no more features left to cut. This > > time the deadline is real because their competitors are getting their act > > together in a way that hasn’t ever happened before. > > > > > > 2. Apple > > > > Making matters worse is Steve Jobs. He has Apple humming like fine tuned > > violin. Tiger is everything Apple promised and its only been released for > > three months or so. And I imagine things are only going to improve. And if > > that wasn’t enough Apple is going to squeeze out yet another OS before > > Microsoft can get Longhorn out the door. Ouch, yet another kick in the > > balls. Then you have this whole Macintel thing going on plus rumors about > > the iPod/ITMS/movie business all of which draw the attention of the media > > towards Apple’s successes. > > > > > > 3. Linux > > > > Never forget Linux. They may be a disorganized, fragmented group who may > > not > > present a challenge on the desktop but they are chipping away slowly at > > MS’s dominance. Then on the server side Microsoft has finally realized > > that they are fighting a losing war. And this is evidenced by the growing > > number of MS backed “independent” research groups claiming Windows > > server is (pick one, cheaper, better, faster, more secure etc.). Those > > tactics speak of desperation. They are a smear campaign plain and simple. > > > > > > Mindshare > > > > This is a good indication of how bad the situation currently is and how > > much > > worse its going to get. Think about how much of a market share Apple has. > > Something like 3% of yearly sales with an install base of about 10-15%. > > Now, > > think about its mindshare. What is mindshare you ask? Well, its the extent > > to which people know about a phenomenon. The iPod has enormous mind share. > > You might not own one yourself but chances are you know someone who has > > does. The iPod alone has made Apple’s mindshare sky rocket. Now factor in > > the ITMS and how profitable it has been. Now think about the recent > > announcement of their switch to Intel. And then there is the ever present > > rumors about them starting a movie store much like the iTMS. People can’t > > stop talking about Apple and Jobs is just fanning the flames, trying his > > best to fuel the fires and feed the rumor mills. > > > > > > And all the while the media focuses on Apple do you know who they aren’t > > talking about? Microsoft. Think about all of the buzz that MS has gotten in > > the past when they released a new operating system. And here they are about > > to release an item they claim is their most revolutionary product ever and > > . > > . . no one is listening. No one cares. Redmond is no longer where all of > > the > > news is coming from. If you are about to release a killer product, > > something > > that is going to save your company and allow you to ride its success for > > years to come, the last thing you want to hear are yawns. > > > > > > News flash! Longhorn is going to be drastically overshadowed by Leopard and > > Macs running Intel. Make no mistake about it, Jobs is a master showman. As > > such, he will wait untill the best moment possible and then try and wow the > > world with all of Apple’s new toys. Who wants to cover a stripped down, > > bare bones, bug infested OS like Longhorn (which is already being called XP > > SP3 if that gives you any indication of how bad things are) when you can go > > look at Leopard running on a pumped up PowerMac with Intel’s latest and > > greatest chip inside? > > > > > > Linux learns to game > > > > > > More bad news for MS is called Cedega. And do you know why it is bad? > > Because it allows Windows only games to be played on a version of Linux > > called Linspire. Uh oh. Thats not good. > > > > > > Gaming is the one area in which Microsoft can truly call their own. No one > > really even competes with them on the desktop as far as gaming goes. > > Anything else and Apple and Linux can put up a good fight but not when it > > comes to games. Until now. With the release of this product Half Life, GTA, > > Doom 3 and the rest can now be played in Linux. And if they can do it for > > Linux then they can do it for Mac. And that simple fact should scare the > > heck out of Microsoft. Because if that program is ported to OS X then the > > top games in the industry can be played on a Mac, using Intel’s fastest > > chip, using NVidia’s best graphics card on a 30” aluminum display. Over > > night PowerMacs could become the best gaming rig in history. > > > > > > And remember, its gamers who drive companies to produce the best product > > possible. Normal people don’t go out and buy the latest and greatest stuff > > just because it’s out, gamers do. When you are playing Doom 3 you want it > > to be as realistic as possible and if that means buying a $300 video card > > then they will do it. If that means buying the fastest processor they will > > do it. And if that means upgrading to the newest OS then they will do it. > > Say, we don’t know anyone coming out with a new OS any time do we? > > > > > > Realistically how long do you think gamers will stick with Windows if it > > turns out that the best gaming experience can be had on a Mac? And if the > > rumors are true and Apple does bring AltiVec to the Intel side of things > > then it is quite possible that Apple may be the ones who very soon are > > producing the fastest computers anywhere. And remember, gamers always want > > more power. > > > > > > Women and children first > > > > > > Here is my best shot at what Microsoft could do to try and turn things > > around: > > > > > > 1. Admit defeat > > > > If only to themselves MS has to admit that Longhorn is a complete and utter > > failure. To have come this far, spent this much money and wasted this much > > time to ultimately produce an OS which barely has any of the features that > > was to make it great, is a beyond pathetic. Time to own up to the fact that > > everybody screwed up. > > > > > > 2. Thin the herd > > > > First one out the door needs to be Ballmer. He is an idiot on a good day > > and > > he has just reinforced that image with his bungling of the Longhorn > > situation. After he goes then its time to go down the line trimming the fat > > and doing some serious house cleaning. Once that is done then look outside > > the company for a few decent managers. > > > > > > 3. Do your best > > > > Since Longhorn is the only thing you got at the moment that is what they > > are > > going to have to sell. Try to make the best out of a bad situation. This is > > the point at which you should be treading water while you work on something > > else. > > > > > > 4. Dump it > > > > Throw all of the current Windows code away. All of it. Everything from 9x > > to > > XP to Longhorn, everything has to go. It’s all crap and its time to > > jettison those reeking piles of poorly written, buggy code. > > > > > > 5. Start over > > > > This may be the hardest pill of all to swallow but the way I see it they > > have two choices. Plan A, try and make a new OS from the ground up. Just > > like the people who designed Unix, security and stability have to be your > > main goals. But that approach is going to take time, a lot of time in fact. > > And time is something that MS doesn’t have much of right now. So, they > > might want to look at plan B. Plan B involves doing pretty much what Apple > > did. Use BSD as the core of your OS then build around it. Now, I realize > > that doing this would be a major embarrassment and would require the > > biggest > > software company on earth to swallow its pride, but ultimately they would > > see that it’s the best choice. > > > > > > 6. Decouple > > > > There is no need to make IE so deeply attached to your kernel. Bad things > > happen when you do stuff like that. Same thing with Media Player, uncouple > > it. Strive to make the system as small as possible. You build the basic > > system and then offer pieces that can be attached as needed. > > > > > > 7. Move on > > > > It’s time to tell the public that if they want to use the newest > > applications for then they need to upgrade. Everyone who still uses 98 has > > to get real. All of you still using 95 need your head examined. And any of > > you using ME, God help you. Microsoft needs to stand up and inform people > > that they will no longer bend over backwards to accommodate their old, > > clunky, piece of crap software. Its time to update all of your > > applications. > > 95, 98, ME, 2000, XP and Longhorn are dead, move on. That step alone would > > make the OS much smaller, faster and more secure. > > > > > > 8. Accept the losses > > > > Microsoft is going to lose market share no matter what they do. If they > > followed this strategy then they would lose market share faster than if > > they > > stuck it out with Longhorn but in a few years they would be in a much > > better > > position to come back and reclaim what they had lost. > > > > > > Wrapping it up > > > > > > So, there you have it. The current state of the Longhorn, a prediction of > > things to come and a few hints for the folks in Redmond. It will be fun to > > watch what happens in the industry in the next few years. We will see if I > > am right. What do you think? What did I miss? > > > > > > Update > > > > Since I have received so many comments that seem to dwell on the same point > > let me clarify my position. I don’t think Microsoft is going to go > > anywhere soon. However, I do think that they are on the downturn. They > > have reached their peak and now they are in decline. It will take a long > > time for their influence to fade (a decade at least) and for a good part of > > that time they will still be a force to be reconded with. But that still > > doesn’t change the fact that, as a company, they are falling instead of > > rising. > > > > > > Check out my views on all of Microsoft’s business endeavors (present and > > future) here: > > > > Microsoft’s Future Prospects > > > > http://www.applematters.com/index.php/423/ > > -- David Zakar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
