On my linux system, IO Stat gives 4.300.000 blocks written a day
(rounded)... in fact, the server is idle, only playing flac to one
squeezebox and I count constantly 41 block written/sec.

I don't know if the io block of a sata drive equals the FS bloc size,
but even with 1024 bytes a block, it's around 4Go written a day. With
1Go free and dynamic wear leveling, you can expect failure before 5
years. 

Changing the usb key every two years sounds like a good idea. Anyway,
this was an interesting reading.


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vrobin
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