Mike Carrell wrote:
Let's see: Mills has published his book and updated it periodically. He has sponsored experimental work at universities and reputable laboratories before acquiring the present property. He has posted detailed reports on a long series of experiemts on his website. He has published critical papers in leading scientific journals, including the Journal of Applied Physics . . .
All well and good, but this sort of thing will convince practically no one, whereas if the 1992 Thermacore tests had continued they would have convinced everyone by 1994. Suppose you put a dozen of those Thermacore cells into the hands of willing people -- people I personally know at institutions all over the world. Then you upload reports from those people to web sites such as LENR-CANR.org and Mills' own site. Within a year you would convince hundreds of thousands of people that these results are real. And you would place thousands more identical cells (charging the researchers whatever it costs for the materials). Within two years you would convince everyone in the world.
This is what AT&T did with the transistor from 1948 to 1952. They sent out sample devices to hundreds of institutions such as Los Alamos. It worked. Nothing else would have worked.
What Jed apparently wants is the equivalent of Morrison's hot cup of tea. Well, it hasn't happened in the CfFworld either, despite Jed's urging.
It *cannot* happen. CF researchers are not capable of doing it.
Oh, please. Mills has kept nothing secret. There is no secret to anyone who has been paying close attention and who understands the the physics involved.
He has kept everything that matters secret! He had the ability to convince everyone in 1992 and he has not taken a single step to do it. He told me in person on the telephone that he does not want to convince people, and that this strategy is deliberate. He also told Gene that.
Mills publication strategy is a cat and mouse game intended to convince just a few people so that he can entice investors, form a "secret conspiracy," and develop the thing on his own. That's more or less what Mills told me, and it sure looks that way. This is exactly the same strategy practiced by Reding, and by the Wright brothers between 1903 and 1908. As one biographer said of the Wrights, it was a "tragic mistake." And a perfectly stupid waste of time.
Jed's caricature. Why do you think that Mills has not trotted out a tea warmer or a house heater like some in the manner some in peanut gallery have been calling for?
I think he has not done it because he is a fool. He could have done it in 1992. They did do it, effectively, at MIT! I have the data they showed right here. If I could upload 10 examples of this kind of data from 10 different independent researchers, I would convince thousands of people within weeks.
Why do you think he has positioned BLP as a license laboratory to establish technology and a patent base and attract major corporations with deep pockets to carry applications forward? He is doing exactly that.
And that is the wrong thing to do under the circumstances, as history has shown again and again and again.
I think it will take thousands of > people, and without thousands of people in hundreds of different companies > he will surely fail. If thousands of companies had not developed the > transistor, AT&T alone would have failed.
No. Bell Labs went after the transistor deliberately because AT&T foresaw the rising demand for telecommunications and realized that mechanical switching, refined over decades, would not cope with the future needs.
AT&T nearly failed at commercializing the transistor in 1948 thanks to Shockley's ego and his opposition to Teal. A couple more mistakes like that and the whole development effort would have gone down the tubes. That is why it is absolute essential that many different institutions pursue development. Centralized development under one decision maker or "Tzar" never works. Mills is trying to set himself up to be that Tzar, which means the effort must fail sooner or later.
By the 1960s AT&T's development strategy had gone completely off the rails and would never have resulted in the integrated circuit. If AT&T alone had tried to develop the transistor, 14 years later it would have been a marginal, slow unreliable replacement for relays only.
AT&T could not alone have created the industries based on semiconductors alone, that is true. But they would not have "failed". They could have made transistor switches for the Bell systems.
They did, in fact, fail by 1960, thanks to ego problems and bad judgement. See Riordan and Hoddeson.
Furthermore, tons of > entrepreneurial money and talent poured into the development within weeks > of the announcements of both transistors and ICs. See Riorden and Hoddeson, > or any history of transistors and integrated circuits.
By well established corporations with the resources necessary to carry it forward. I still don't think Jed gets it. He is castigating Mills for following the path he is holding up as an illustration above.
Mike does not seem to understand what I am castigating Mills for:
1. Keeping secrets. 2. Trying to control development. 3. Trying to make himself "development Tzar" the way Shockley did.
These two points have nothing to do with well-established corporations. It makes no difference whether the corporations which to the researcher well-established or whether they were established a week after the discovery, the way Intel and most other ICs leaders were. As long as talent and money flows in and information flows freely the job will be accomplished.
There were a half-million people working on a airplanes in > 1911, for goodness sake!
Where does this number come from?
Scientific American, Special Issue, 1911. As I recall it was reprinted in their "Looking Back" section some years ago.
Not quite. he is doing what the Wright brothers did, studying the technology, building wind tunnels, testing wings, etc. He is ***not*** trying to build a DC-3. Jed, what gives you this idea?
*Mills* himself gave me this idea! And Mike Carrell repeated it yesterday when the described the 1992 Thermacore cells as "not practical" and where he said "scaling up to industrial levels takes lots of money and other skills." If Mills' plan calls for "scaling up to industrial levels" now, before the technology is revealed, accepted, and before we get hundreds of thousands of people working on it, his plan does not have a snowball's chance in hell. History does not work that way.
> The Wrights were incomparable geniuses, but the notion that one or two > geniuses can do something like that alone is utterly absurd.
Mills is not working alone, he has a board, investors and professional staff.
He needs 100,000 people! You cannot do it with fewer than that. He needs hundreds of different laboratories working independently in frantic, unbridled competition. Once he has that he does not need a board or investors or professional staff. Such things are useless under the circumstances. He needs are the dynamic energy of free-market capitalism and unfettered competition working in his favor. Without that, the finest board of directors and the most talented clique of scientists in the world will not do him a bit of good.
It took the > skills of hundreds of thousands of people working for a full generation to > reach that level of development.
And so it will with BLP technology. Nobody denies this, including Mills.
He needs that *now* before anything begins.
There is nothing hidden, only a failure to preceive.
Mills has deliberately sought to limit, channel and prevent perception. That is what he told me, and I believe him. I do not understand why Carrell disputes this; he should ask Mills directly, as I did.
> understands what he sees will be properly impressed. Mizuno is one of the > few people on earth who will show his work to any qualified person. The > others all play hide and seek.
So, Jed, why are not people standing in line to buy Muzino cells?
His cell is very difficult to demonstrate and the demonstration is not as convincing as the 1992 Thermacore demo was. His cell is also dangerous. As everyone here knows a few months ago it blew up while he was demonstrating it to an unnamed VIP.
- Jed
