It seems to me that another factor in the decline has been the decline in
manufacturing in the USA.  I know that when the Fukushima disaster struck,
the net reduction in available power in Japan caused significant problems
in manufacturing - hinting that manufacturing was a large consumer of the
grid power.  It was easier to see that effect when Fukishima was suddenly
shut down, but in the USA the manufacturing has been slowly and
consistently trickling to the far east for many years, gradually reducing
the electrical demand.

On Fri, Mar 2, 2018 at 6:01 PM, Andrew Meulenberg <mules...@gmail.com>
wrote:

> Has anyone looked at the impact of fracking on the data? Heating is a
> major energy sink and the difference in gas vs electric heating costs (even
> with heat pumps) could be a major driver in new builds.
>
> Andrew
> _ _ _ _ _
>
> On Fri, Mar 2, 2018 at 6:31 PM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> JonesBeene <jone...@pacbell.net> wrote:
>>
>> Not to mention the electric car. Tesla alone “should have” increased the
>>> demand for electrical power. This has not happened.
>>>
>>
>> I have not looked at the numbers, but I kind of doubt that Tesla alone
>> could have a measurable effect. Perhaps Tesla + Leaf + plug-in hybrids
>> could. Tesla has sold 250,000 cars I think. That sounds like a lot but
>> electric cars do not consume much electricity. About as much as a large air
>> conditioner, I think. 250,000 air conditioners more or less would not have
>> a measurable impact on U.S. consumption.
>>
>> From what I have seen, the major factors in reduced consumption are, from
>> big to small:
>>
>> Increased efficiency, especially in things like lighting (illumination),
>> HVAC equipment, refrigerators, and Energy Star compliant equipment. (The
>> Energy Star program is completely voluntary -- it just gives manufacturers
>> bragging rights with a sticker they put on equipment. But it is highly
>> popular with the public and it has had a large impact, which I suppose is
>> why the Trump administration want to kill it.)
>>
>> Large scale private cogeneration with natural gas, especially in large
>> buildings, campuses factories and so no. This is more common in Japan, I
>> think, but it is catching on in the U.S.
>>
>> "Distributed" solar, a.k.a. small scale solar photovoltaic. That is,
>> small scale PV solar, on roofs, for example. Large scale solar is done by
>> power companies so it does not reduce grid power consumption. It resembles
>> wind turbine power generated by power companies. Small scale solar is
>> having a big impact in Hawaii. The power companies are in bad shape because
>> of it. But it is not having an impact elsewhere as far as I know. The Trump
>> administration and the power companies are determined to keep it from
>> having an impact, for example, by charging customers who have their own
>> solar exorbitant amounts for getting any grid power at all to supplement it.
>>
>> I may have that wrong. That was the situation a few years ago. The EIA is
>> the place to go to get information on things like this. See:
>>
>> https://www.eia.gov/
>>
>> Distributed solar began to show up in the stats, just above the noise
>> level, in 2015:
>>
>> https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=23972
>>
>> Here is net generation of electricity from all sources, distributed and
>> grid:
>>
>> https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/
>>
>> You can play around with this graph in many ways to see what is
>> happening. Change it to years to smooth out seasonal fluctuations. You can
>> see solar (bottom teal line) *just beginning* to leave the noise level
>> in 2014. In 2017 4Q small scale solar photovoltaic it is 1,476 thousand
>> megawatt hours. Total generation was 345,939, so that's 0.4%.
>>
>> In the right-hand box, select "Net generation by energy source: electric
>> utilities." You do not see a dramatic reduction. Seasonal variation makes
>> it hard to spot. Try the Annual version, "Index to start as value." That
>> does show a distinct decline:
>>
>> https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=
>> 2,0,1&fuel=vvg&geo=g&sec=8&linechart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A~
>> ELEC.GEN.COW-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-1.A~
>> ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-1.A&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.
>> A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-
>> 1.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-1.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A&freq=A&
>> chartindexed=2&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&maptype=0&rse=0&pin=
>>
>> ("United States: all fuels (utility-scale)" blue line goes below -250,000)
>>
>> - Jed
>>
>>
>

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