Has anyone looked at the impact of fracking on the data? Heating is a major energy sink and the difference in gas vs electric heating costs (even with heat pumps) could be a major driver in new builds.
Andrew _ _ _ _ _ On Fri, Mar 2, 2018 at 6:31 PM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > JonesBeene <[email protected]> wrote: > > Not to mention the electric car. Tesla alone “should have” increased the >> demand for electrical power. This has not happened. >> > > I have not looked at the numbers, but I kind of doubt that Tesla alone > could have a measurable effect. Perhaps Tesla + Leaf + plug-in hybrids > could. Tesla has sold 250,000 cars I think. That sounds like a lot but > electric cars do not consume much electricity. About as much as a large air > conditioner, I think. 250,000 air conditioners more or less would not have > a measurable impact on U.S. consumption. > > From what I have seen, the major factors in reduced consumption are, from > big to small: > > Increased efficiency, especially in things like lighting (illumination), > HVAC equipment, refrigerators, and Energy Star compliant equipment. (The > Energy Star program is completely voluntary -- it just gives manufacturers > bragging rights with a sticker they put on equipment. But it is highly > popular with the public and it has had a large impact, which I suppose is > why the Trump administration want to kill it.) > > Large scale private cogeneration with natural gas, especially in large > buildings, campuses factories and so no. This is more common in Japan, I > think, but it is catching on in the U.S. > > "Distributed" solar, a.k.a. small scale solar photovoltaic. That is, > small scale PV solar, on roofs, for example. Large scale solar is done by > power companies so it does not reduce grid power consumption. It resembles > wind turbine power generated by power companies. Small scale solar is > having a big impact in Hawaii. The power companies are in bad shape because > of it. But it is not having an impact elsewhere as far as I know. The Trump > administration and the power companies are determined to keep it from > having an impact, for example, by charging customers who have their own > solar exorbitant amounts for getting any grid power at all to supplement it. > > I may have that wrong. That was the situation a few years ago. The EIA is > the place to go to get information on things like this. See: > > https://www.eia.gov/ > > Distributed solar began to show up in the stats, just above the noise > level, in 2015: > > https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=23972 > > Here is net generation of electricity from all sources, distributed and > grid: > > https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/ > > You can play around with this graph in many ways to see what is happening. > Change it to years to smooth out seasonal fluctuations. You can see solar > (bottom teal line) *just beginning* to leave the noise level in 2014. In > 2017 4Q small scale solar photovoltaic it is 1,476 thousand megawatt hours. > Total generation was 345,939, so that's 0.4%. > > In the right-hand box, select "Net generation by energy source: electric > utilities." You do not see a dramatic reduction. Seasonal variation makes > it hard to spot. Try the Annual version, "Index to start as value." That > does show a distinct decline: > > https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vvg&; > geo=g&sec=8&linechart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.COW- > US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN. > HYC-US-1.A&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.COW- > US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN. > HYC-US-1.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A&freq=A&chartindexed=2& > ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&maptype=0&rse=0&pin= > > ("United States: all fuels (utility-scale)" blue line goes below -250,000) > > - Jed > >
