JonesBeene <jone...@pacbell.net> wrote:

Not to mention the electric car. Tesla alone “should have” increased the
> demand for electrical power. This has not happened.
>

I have not looked at the numbers, but I kind of doubt that Tesla alone
could have a measurable effect. Perhaps Tesla + Leaf + plug-in hybrids
could. Tesla has sold 250,000 cars I think. That sounds like a lot but
electric cars do not consume much electricity. About as much as a large air
conditioner, I think. 250,000 air conditioners more or less would not have
a measurable impact on U.S. consumption.

>From what I have seen, the major factors in reduced consumption are, from
big to small:

Increased efficiency, especially in things like lighting (illumination),
HVAC equipment, refrigerators, and Energy Star compliant equipment. (The
Energy Star program is completely voluntary -- it just gives manufacturers
bragging rights with a sticker they put on equipment. But it is highly
popular with the public and it has had a large impact, which I suppose is
why the Trump administration want to kill it.)

Large scale private cogeneration with natural gas, especially in large
buildings, campuses factories and so no. This is more common in Japan, I
think, but it is catching on in the U.S.

"Distributed" solar, a.k.a. small scale solar photovoltaic. That is, small
scale PV solar, on roofs, for example. Large scale solar is done by power
companies so it does not reduce grid power consumption. It resembles wind
turbine power generated by power companies. Small scale solar is having a
big impact in Hawaii. The power companies are in bad shape because of it.
But it is not having an impact elsewhere as far as I know. The Trump
administration and the power companies are determined to keep it from
having an impact, for example, by charging customers who have their own
solar exorbitant amounts for getting any grid power at all to supplement it.

I may have that wrong. That was the situation a few years ago. The EIA is
the place to go to get information on things like this. See:

https://www.eia.gov/

Distributed solar began to show up in the stats, just above the noise
level, in 2015:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=23972

Here is net generation of electricity from all sources, distributed and
grid:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/

You can play around with this graph in many ways to see what is happening.
Change it to years to smooth out seasonal fluctuations. You can see solar
(bottom teal line) *just beginning* to leave the noise level in 2014. In
2017 4Q small scale solar photovoltaic it is 1,476 thousand megawatt hours.
Total generation was 345,939, so that's 0.4%.

In the right-hand box, select "Net generation by energy source: electric
utilities." You do not see a dramatic reduction. Seasonal variation makes
it hard to spot. Try the Annual version, "Index to start as value." That
does show a distinct decline:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vvg&geo=g&sec=8&linechart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-1.A&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-1.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-1.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-1.A&freq=A&chartindexed=2&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&maptype=0&rse=0&pin=

("United States: all fuels (utility-scale)" blue line goes below -250,000)

- Jed

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