Well, there was this study where 15% died: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
Seems that the rate could be 15-30% rather than the 2.3% that has been promoted. Given the HUGE 85% infection rate (85% exposed become infected) this could, if it breaks all containment efforts (likely given that degree of infection and the way some get zero symptoms) kill Billions of people. On Fri, Feb 7, 2020 at 4:56 AM Jones Beene <[email protected]> wrote: > > The normal death rate for China before this tragedy is at least 2.1 % > according to Wiki the wise. The population of Wuhan alone is over 11 million. > (I had no idea it was that large). > > Thus in a normal year the local infrastructure handles over 230,000 deaths. > Presumably most deaths are followed by cremation. > > An extra 10% over the normal rate would certainly be unusual, but possibly > could be quietly handled. > > China is famous for its night shifts. Tesla built a factory there in a year > that would have taken 4-5 years anywhere else. Gruesome as it is too imagine, > adding an extra shift at the mortuary would not be big news. > > > > Jed Rothwell wrote: > > This report indicates there may be 25,000 dead. I think such large numbers > would impossible to cover up. They could only be dealt with by mass burials > with machinery, like after a large battle in war. Most people in China > nowadays have cell phones with cameras. Photos and accounts would circulate. > > No doubt the number of cases and deaths are underestimated, but I doubt the > underestimates are this large. >
