Jones Beene <[email protected]> wrote: The normal death rate for China before this tragedy is at least 2.1 % > according to Wiki the wise. >
That seems high. Wouldn't that mean the average lifespan is 48 years? It is 78 years, and the median age is 37, so I don't see how 2.1% per year could be dying. See: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/china-demographics/#life-exp There will be a large number of old people decades from now -- a bulge in the population profile. The death rate will rise. There is a bulge already, but I do not think it is large enough for a 2.1% rate. Anyway . . . suppose it is: > The population of Wuhan alone is over 11 million. (I had no idea it was > that large). > > Thus in a normal year the local infrastructure handles over 230,000 > deaths. Presumably most deaths are followed by cremation. > > An extra 10% over the normal rate would certainly be unusual, but possibly > could be quietly handled. > 230,000 per year is 19,000 per month. Most of the deaths from the flu have been in Wuhan, and nearly all have been in the last month, because the infection rate is exponential. So, that would be nearly 25,000 in addition to the usual 19,000. I am sure people would notice. China is repressive place, but news of that would leak. > China is famous for its night shifts. Tesla built a factory there in a > year that would have taken 4-5 years anywhere else. Gruesome as it is too > imagine, adding an extra shift at the mortuary would not be big news. > I am pretty sure news of it would leak out. Many dreadful false rumors are spreading. News that is both dreadful and true would leak out, I think.
