Even though total car sales in the US were down 5% in January, sales of hybrids climbed over 27%! Ears perk up when any market segment can make that kind of gain in a down-cycle.
Although prior monthly comparative-increases for hybrids have been steady, this recent burst is now a major statistical development. Once again, GM and Ford (to a lesser extent) are paying the price for their own short-sightedness, arrogance and tardiness; and Toyota is laughing all the way to the bank. Although by year-end 2008, as hybrid gains continue, they will have represented only 4-6 percent of the new vehicles sold in the USA- yet ... at even a lesser rate of relative increase (month-to-month) if this continues into 2009: then it will only require one more year for hybrid market penetration to reach 50% of all new cars. That would be for the full year 2010. Most likely the rate of increase will taper-off, but hybrids and small diesels could capture 40% of US sales by the end of 2011. Will Detroit share in that success? Doubtful, they are still in denail ... few there will acknowledge such numbers. They still think Toyota's gamble was some kind of fluke, or that gas prices will reverse. In Europe, where fuel is costlier, the two solutions (hybrids and small diesels) will probably exceed the 50% market penetration this year. Toyotas Prius accounted for half the US volume of hybrids. GM almost zero. The curious thing is that GM considers the Prius a "luxury car" due to its price premium, and yet it may end up outselling Cadillac very soon. Meanwhile, Bob Lutz, General Motors vice chairman and "chief car guru" (who is becoming a laughing-stock of the Green movement) still has a job. Will GM have the courage to ditch this 72 year old "expert" before it is too late? He has tried belatedly to jump on the hybrid band-wagon, but 'where's the beef'? If something is not done, he will end up driving GM into bankruptcy, just as he almost did at Chrysler. Lutz made his name developing gas-guzzling behemoths like the V-10 Dodge Viper. How many of them do you see on the road these days? As recently as summer 2007 Lutz, who has his own blog LOL - was declaring "Hybrid cars like those made by Toyota 'make no economic sense,' because their price will never come down, and diesel autos like those touted by Chrysler are also uneconomic." Wow. I will not even quote what he has blurted-out on a regular basis about global warming and Gore, as this misguided tidbit about the Prius should be enough to demote the guy down to repo-man... the only question: is it symptomatic of the entire company? Since then, of course, Toyota has dropped the price of the Prius in Europe and everywhere else but the US (and that is due to the extremely weak dollar and high demand), while Chrysler's new diesels are also in high demand; just as GM can offer nothing much aside from high priced Super-Bowl Ads for cars which will probably be too-little, too-late, if they ever reach market at all. The once-proud US auto industry ??? Lutz also proclaimed: "The only place in Europe that diesel-driven cars are big, is where diesel fuel is half the cost of regular gasoline [in fact, there is NO such place]. Lutz-the-putz, continues: "In most places there (Europe), where the costs are comparable diesel has little market penetration." [totally wrong in retrospect: the early numbers are 40% of all new cars sold in the UK in early 2008 are diesel] and for Brits, diesel fuel is the same price as gasoline, if not higher. Being of 'advancing-years' myself (awful euphemism), it is painful and always disheartening to witness the *Peter-Principle* in action ... age should, and usually does, bring some measure of wisdom along for the ride. ... but still, all things considered, how much longer can GM keep letting their "Peters" do the talking, and make such major market miscalculations? ... all the while driving a once-excellent and dominant company into "early retirement" ? Jones
